Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now • Hacker News Board

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#501

Post by nradov » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #451

swader999 wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they would have stronger immune systems from repeated exposure without the extreme lockdowns NZ introduced and less hospitalizations. Respiratory viruses don't die out, they can persist in animal populations indefinitely. Sars Cov2 antibodies detected in 40% of NE deer populations for instance. Not to mention cats and dogs...

I assume you have evidence of the claim that by being regularly sick your immune system is stronger? Sure, it's run into more things it has learned to fight, but just because it knows how to fight a catalogue of things it doesn't mean that it will be better with the next novel pandemic, right?

The risk is more around autoimmune conditions like asthma and allergies. If the immune system doesn't start fighting off a variety of pathogens from an early age then it might go haywire later.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2841828/

We should be focusing on overall health rather than just individual infectious diseases.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#502

Post by swader999 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:53 PM UTC

himinlomax wrote: post #484

swader999 wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying it doesn't reduce individual risk for a period of time. It does. But vaccinating entire populations for a respiratory virus that mutates and stays infectious is a recipe for never ending boosters and has a strong possibility of creating more lethal variants because these will thrive in the vaccinated less severe masses when normally they'd be bed ridden, symptomatic and easily contained through contact…

This is completely at odds with what the experts say. They could be all wrong, or you could be. What are your credentials in virology/immunology? And do you have examples of vaccinations favoring the apparition of variants for other diseases? As far as I know, that's never happened. On the contrary, I've seen researchers point to immunocompromised patients as possible sources for variants, as the infection lingers in…

Shortening it if it doesn't bring the R naught below 1 doesn't have much advantage.

Look at what happened with a vaccine that was applied to the poultry industry that didn't prevent transmission and had similar mutational characteristics to SarsCov2: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-m...

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#503

Post by noobly » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 9:59 PM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #290

bwship wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally, I decided not to get the vaccine. Three weeks ago, my friend who had gotten the vaccine got Covid, and then gave it to me. (He also beat me in golf that day which says a lot more about my golf than his ability to play while sick). But anyway, we both lost our sense of taste and smell, had fevers, were achy, him up until about a week ago, me up until a couple of days ago. So, perhaps he would have had an…

Given the R0-value of Covid, the likelihood is fairly high that you spread the virus to other people. Your amazingly impressive immune system would have absolutely crushed the virus with the help of a vaccine, and perhaps you would have had 0 symptoms and been totally non-contagious. Someone could be in a hospital bed because of your decision. Food for thought.

Last I checked, it's unknown how much (if at all) the vaccine reduces spread.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#504

Post by swader999 » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:01 PM UTC

foota wrote: post #491

swader999 wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying it doesn't reduce individual risk for a period of time. It does. But vaccinating entire populations for a respiratory virus that mutates and stays infectious is a recipe for never ending boosters and has a strong possibility of creating more lethal variants because these will thrive in the vaccinated less severe masses when normally they'd be bed ridden, symptomatic and easily contained through contact…

The fact is that the majority of cases are still coming from unvaccinated people though, this hypothetical widespread infection of vaccinated people you're suggesting isn't happening.

Right now in my area 1 in 4 new cases are in fully vaccinated people. Why is Gibraltar experiencing a surge in cases with 99% of its population fully vaccinated? Its a leaky vaccine and this has huge implications for producing variants that are more deadly. See the article I posted on Marek's vaccine in chickens.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#505

Post by dTal » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:04 PM UTC

gunapologist99 wrote: post #488

merrywhether wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a serious disconnect between public health experts and the general public, and the experts have continued to not learn that lesson over the last year plus. It’s mind-boggling. Earlier in the summer, we lifted mask mandates “because the vaccines were preventing disease”, and regardless of the technical facts behind that decision, the perception was reality for the general public. Now they are trying to walk th…

> Public health officials need to understand that their primary job is managing public perception of a situation first and foremost. Actually, public health officials need to maintain the trust of the public, or no one will listen. And you won't be trusted if everything coming out of your mouth is a lie, no matter what your intentions.

Actually, it's both. Parent is arguing a consequentialist ethical framework - public health experts have a primary duty of care to the population, and their actions should promote this goal.

Your position of "you won't be trusted if everything coming out of your mouth is a lie" is fully compatible with this framework.

Considering the other person's mental model and incorporating their terminology when communicating with them, even when they're a bit wrong, isn't "lying" - it's basic empathy.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#506

Post by tguvot » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:31 PM UTC

sradman wrote: post #381

tguvot wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i know. as i said he miscalculated efficiency for age cohorts. israeli data for most age ranges is 45 to 25 percent lower than his calculated 95%-99%+ efficiency. So maybe, as paradox it's nice, but as calculation go, they suck. and now everybody running around with this site as proof that there is no need in booster because efficiency is still 95%

Do you have a link to the full age cohort effectiveness numbers? I didn't think these numbers were published yet, if they are or don't exhibit Simpson's Paradox then the question is what accounts for the discrepancy with the UK and Canadian data and the immunological lab research done by Shane Crotty and Rockefeller [1]. [1] https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-717/

There were presentation with numbers stratified by age, but I can't find it now. Unfortunately I still can't figure out how to track down everything that ministry of health releases over there. Closet one that I found is this one https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/vpb-12082021/he/files_... . Look at slide 7.

Also, if you we are talking about Simpson's Paradox, we need to go deeper. As you can see at same slide, vaccine efficiency going down, the further you get away from second shot. Hence, age cohort effectiveness is useless. You need age/vaccination time frames to judge real efficiency

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#507

Post by sangnoir » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 10:47 PM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #470

supercheetah wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctors and nurses don't get built in a year.

That seems like such an excuse. A year and a half is plenty of time to get creative. Pull people out of retirement. Let nursing students do more. Pay truckloads of money to all of them. I dunno. Figure it out. These folks are supposed to be the “experts”… what have they been doing this whole time? Saying “no it cannot be done” is just not a valid excuse.

> what have they been doing this whole time?

Working on the most cost-effective, life-saving way to manage the pandemic: encouraging everyone who is able to to get vaccinated. Unfortunately, they had to work against an absurd scenario where an equal-opportunity virus has been politicized.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#508

Post by foota » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:07 PM UTC

swader999 wrote: post #504

foota wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact is that the majority of cases are still coming from unvaccinated people though, this hypothetical widespread infection of vaccinated people you're suggesting isn't happening.

Right now in my area 1 in 4 new cases are in fully vaccinated people. Why is Gibraltar experiencing a surge in cases with 99% of its population fully vaccinated? Its a leaky vaccine and this has huge implications for producing variants that are more deadly. See the article I posted on Marek's vaccine in chickens.

That's... still a minority? I'm not saying it's impossible, but here's a link saying that the risk here is minor: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20241836v.... You can throw out all the theorhetical risks of a vaccine all you want but the harm of avoiding vaccination is readily apparent and obvious.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#509

Post by amrocha » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:24 PM UTC

dgfitz wrote: post #455

amrocha wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After 9/11 a significant portion of the US was staunchly anti-war, organized some of the largest protests in US history, and yet they were ignored by the media and demonized as anti-patriotic. On top of that, muslim americans have had to endure years of racist attacks, not only from individuals but also from the state, in borders and airports, ongoing to this day. If you think it "united the country" then you either…

That isn't accurate. The media doesn't disagree with me, the country is ripped in two over COVID and vaccines, there is no denying that. Why do you say they disagree? Edit: capitalization Second edit: I didn't say the WAR united the country. You're twisting my comment.

The war was a direct response to 9/11, they're directly related, just like vaccines and mandates are a direct response to COVID. The country was ripped in two back then two, you just didn't hear about it as much.

I was wrong when I said the media disagrees with you though. Maybe the difference is that the anti-vax side has managed to organize through the internet and has gotten a lot more coverage, so they look bigger than they actually are?

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#510

Post by LurkingPenguin » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 11:31 PM UTC

blagie wrote: post #472

LurkingPenguin wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The subtle implication of your comment seems to be that I value my life and health less than you do? If so, I think that's unfair. But I'm happy to roll with it. If, in the face of substantial evidence that two doses of one of the mRNA vaccines remain highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death 8 months on, you still cannot tolerate the potential that you could end up in a hospital in a developing countr…

I don't think you've traveled so much if you think that's the implication, or at least not for long enough to soak in how values differ between cultures. No. That's not the implication. I don't know you well enough to tell you what the differences in our value systems are. Since you do ask, if I were to speculate, I would guess you value your life and comfort more than I value mine. I was never fearful of dying of CO…

Ha. So now you're questioning how much I've traveled. :eyeroll:

I don't know you so I won't pretend to know how much you value anything, how much you've traveled, etc. but you seem to be shifting your position for the sake of arguing. For example, you're now saying you're fine with hospitals in developing countries, but your original comment expressed concern about your ability to receive quality care in Vietnam:

> They are well beyond hospital capacity, so if I do have a serious case, it's uncertain I'll receive quality care

As for:

> And no, we don't know much for sure about COVID, but we have to work from best available evidence. If there's e.g. a 50% chance that a booster shot increases protection from 30% breakthroughs to 15%, and a 50% chance it does nothing, that means I've reduced my odds of breakthrough by (30-15)*50% = 7.5%.

In other words, your "absolute" need for a booster shot is based on numbers you've pulled out of a hat.