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Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

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Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#241
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are continually exposed to COVID-19, wouldn’t you effectively be “re-upping” your immune system every time there is additional exposure?

No, exposure to the virus is like exposure to combat. You may not die, but the likelihood goes up the more time you spend exposed to it and the more of it you get exposed to. To keep with that metaphor a vaccine is like a war game, it won't kill you but it's not the real thing either. But if you've done it you're better off than if you hadn't.

This doesn't make sense. Do you have a source that says repeated exposure increases your odds of serious disease?

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#242

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

There’s a serious disconnect between public health experts and the general public, and the experts have continued to not learn that lesson over the last year plus. It’s mind-boggling.

Earlier in the summer, we lifted mask mandates “because the vaccines were preventing disease”, and regardless of the technical facts behind that decision, the perception was reality for the general public. Now they are trying to walk that back to “vaccines prevent serious disease” in the face of delta breakthroughs but the baseline had already been set.

Not to mention the fact that experts continue to pedantically stick to their definition of serious disease as “needed oxygen in the hospital”, once again out of touch with the layperson’s opinion that a week of debilitating sickness at home followed by a month of weakness until full recovery seems pretty “serious” and something people do not want. Boosters are appealing because laypeople don’t want any serious-by-their-definition disease and experts seemingly are incapable of acknowledging or understanding that, let alone their part in creating confusing messaging (partly to appease a 3rd set of people who ironically don’t really want to hear from them at all).

Public health officials need to understand that their primary job is managing public perception of a situation first and foremost. They can go push their glasses up and pedantically spout off technical corrections behind closed doors as much as they want, but in public they have to connect and empathize with normal humans.

Part of this probably comes from medicine’s continued promulgation of their air of expertise (read: superiority) that they’ve affected for a long while, but things like compassion and bedside-manner at lower importance. I worked in medicine and studied public health, and this status-over-all-else attitude was one of the reasons I left.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#243
post #214
post #77

There is not strong evidence supporting a 3rd booster dose in immunocompetent people. We have partly seen a misinterpretation of the Israeli data [1] and specifically the single low effectiveness value that appears to be the result of Simpson's Paradox [2]. Dr. Fauci reported this single value decline from the high nineties to the high seventies on Andy Slavitt's podcast [3]. Pfizer's CEO has promoted this same data,…

with regards to misinterpretation of israeli data, it's more like miscalculation of israeli data: 1) his calculated efficiency for different age groups is up to 40%+ higher compared to numbers that released by israeli ministry of health in official presentations. when asked about it, he said that he doesn't know how they calculate it and this is his numbers 2) his calculations from the beginning included people that…

I think the misinterpretation is mainly by the media and the general public. When most of your population is vaccinated and most of the serious disease is in the unvaccinated, you need to report by rate and vaccination status as the Ontario Science Table [1] now does (rather than absolute case numbers).

Simpson's Paradox is more of a data artifact that you have to be aware of. I didn't know about this statistical anomaly before but the takeaway is that if you see a effectiveness percentage decrease from 97% to 77% then you should also check that the value in each age cohort because each individual cohort may surprisingly be above 90%. The Israeli data might be fine but I want to see the "age corrected" range rather than a single effectiveness number.

The bottom line is that we will get good data moving forward from the Israeli 3rd dose program with other quality data sets soon to follow from the U.S., UK, Canada, Singapore, etc.

What we have not yet seen is any good evidence that the vaccinated are contributing to spread, though in the Fauci interview he indicated that the R(t) in the unvaccinated was non-zero. This is an important question, IMO.

[1] https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/#riskbyvac...

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#244
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I roll a six sided die. You roll a 20 sided die. We both get a 4. I guess they're the same.

My dice used my immune system. Yours used whatever the f they decided to inject into you. Looks like I won!

It is upsetting to me that you appear to believe vaccines replace the role of your immune system.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#245

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

fwiw, the US has been increasing its vaxxed % by about 3-4 points per month. Not great, but still improving.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#246

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

> If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically).

That seems worth checking.

US flu deaths per year over the last 10 years ranged from 12000 to 61000, averaging 35900 [1]. That's 3.7 to 18.6 per 100k, averaging 10.9 per 100k.

Weekly COVID deaths among vaccinated people is 0.1 per 100k [2].

The flu season is typically about 8 months. A weekly death rate of 0.1 per 100k over 8 months would be 3.5 per 100k.

So...about 1/3 the risk of dying from from flu in an average flu year which arguably is indeed "far below".

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_influenza_statis...

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#247
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I roll a six sided die. You roll a 20 sided die. We both get a 4. I guess they're the same.

My dice used my immune system. Yours used whatever the f they decided to inject into you. Looks like I won!

How do you think a vaccine works?

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#248
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dice used my immune system. Yours used whatever the f they decided to inject into you. Looks like I won!

It is upsetting to me that you appear to believe vaccines replace the role of your immune system.

The whole point of the original comment was that 1. someone with the vaccine and someone without both had an identical reaction to the virus and 2. just because everyone on the pro-vaccine side makes claims that this vaccine is safe, there are no long-term studies on it. So my point about my immune system was that yes I was willing to roll the dice and deal with the virus when/if it came to me. And I did. I will get downvoted for this on this particular site, because it is way more skewed to people that feel that the vaccine is a safe and effective measure. But, I didn't roll a 6 sided die while my friend rolled a 20 sided die.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#249
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant Friend’s mother visiting from Jamaica. People in her country are dying while they wait for first shots. The voluntarily unvaccinated in America are idiots. The author’s point is there are billions of unvoluntarily unvaccinated around the world to whom these doses could go.

Anecdotally, I decided not to get the vaccine. Three weeks ago, my friend who had gotten the vaccine got Covid, and then gave it to me. (He also beat me in golf that day which says a lot more about my golf than his ability to play while sick). But anyway, we both lost our sense of taste and smell, had fevers, were achy, him up until about a week ago, me up until a couple of days ago. So, perhaps he would have had an…

Anecdotally, the CEO of my company just died of Covid.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#250
post #182

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

> Is it to protect the vaccinated? This makes no sense, as the risk to the vaccinated well below the range we have accepted for decades. What is the acceptable range? Older people are still dying from Covid even after 2 shots. If a third shot can improve someone's protection from death due to Covid, say from 70% to 90% [1], that sounds like a good reason to take that shot. The comparison between someone in Israel tak…

> taking a booster shot and someone in a 3rd world country without access to vaccines is irrelevant

It is in a world with limited production capacity, unless you think improving the odds of survival from 70%->90% in industrialized countries trumps improving 0%->90 in the rest of the planet :

- The US factories are barely getting online.

- 80% of the mRNA vaccines production capacity is still between Switzerland, Belgium, Germany and Spain.

- Viral Vector capacity (non-Sputnik, which Russia licenses freely) is also mostly between Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and the UK, with some precursors in India.

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