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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

441–450 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#441
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

Not sure how did you get the idea that the market was not there. Arm China had stellar financial results. Arm holding, with 49% share of the company, has significant upside to gain from the market. And this fiasco is partly a misconduct of Mr. Wu, showing no signs of being directed by Chinese investors. And partly because of Trump's tech ban, which obviously affect arm China's prospect. And then this statement: > I b…

"Arm China had stellar financial results. Arm holding, with 49% share of the company, has significant upside to gain from the market."

This is because clients and accounts that previously belonged to Arm had to be handed over to Arm China if Arm wanted to continue doing any business with Chinese firms, regardless of whether they'd actually courted their business.

This is like picking your left pocket and arguing that you stand to gain because I'm putting some of the money back into your right pocket. I'm still robbing you, even if I'm giving you some of your own money back.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#443
post #384
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

> Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. I generally don’t like such jingoistic statements but I think this is basically true, at least in the 2020s. I will also note that this has come as a surprise to many Chinese entrepreneurs, most famously (but far from exclusively) Jack Ma.

The point is that it's true when you point the finger to US companies. US companies are extensions of the US elites (while the state is just a tool). Actually US elites have way more power over foreign companies than Chinese elites do.

I really don't think it's gonna make any real difference if we are facing (strong state + weaker corporations) or (strong corporations + weaker state).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What security risk? This Mr. Wu did something bad inside China, without any evidence that he was colluding with the national and local government of China. How is that translate to security risk at US domestic? And all these Chinese stem students already contributed critical work to the boom of high tech industry. You are not appreciting their hard work, and link a speculation to national security risk?! How heartles…

I have no strong opinions on this, but for background, there are a bunch of Silicon Valley types like Eric Weinstein (Thiel Capital) who maintain that there are sinister undertones to the growing influence of Chinese immigrants in Tech and Higher Education. https://djonesvi.medium.com/eric-weinstein-on-the-secretly-c... Obviously that can veer into uncomfortable conclusions i.e. is it true, or is this kind of racist?

I mean, if the US wanted to "solve" the issue, it's pretty easy.

Offer anyone who graduates with a STEM degree from a reputable institution US citizenship... and require they if they renounce their Chinese citizenship (which happens automatically per Chinese law, but just to be sure).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#445

China has been doing this for, what, 30-40 years now? How is this news? It is astonishing to me how many people have been, apparently, sleeping under a rock for decades, and are just now announcing their bitter realizations that China is not a free market open to Western companies. Hillary Clinton did one of these announcements within the past year or so, and my eyes rolled right out of the back of my head.

So China invented paper, printing and gunpowder. That’s pretty significant IP theft… no one talks about it.

Patents expire, after that you're free to use them. Trade secrets are another thing...

But, this framework did not exist before the XVII and XVIII centuries. So anything beyond that time frame is moot.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#446
post #136

I remember when bitcoin miners were transitioning from FPGA to ASIC... I nearly threw out my back from laughter when the Chinese deceitfully copied the masks with abandon, while also delaying fulfillment with longer and longer burn in tests.

I don't get it, all current ASIC miners are from China.

Chinese get paid to build the ASIC but instead of delivering as promised, they just keep it for themselves and mine with the designs.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#447
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

A point on addressing China as market: for a non US company, I think there just isn’t any market that will be much easier to compete in either way. If we imagine a Swedish chip maker that wants to become a global powerhouse, the US will dip a finger or two in it to make sure it mostly goes along their interests, otherwise the maker will just get banned from US use (Huawey…). China will do the same if the chips ever t…

The US is not going to interfere in 'Swede Corp' unless it's a serious issue of state security. Spottily could be worth $500B and they would not care. Recently Erickson took the spotlight as one of the few alternatives to 5G Huawei there was talk of US sate intervention but that might have been a good thing for them, otherwise, if they came to totally dominate 5G gear sales, again, the US wouldn't really have cared.

Nokia used to completely own mobile, Apple and Google game to dominate that but not out of a national strategy of some kind, although there are systematic artifacts of it behind the scenes.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX). Even naturalization or birth in America can't erase ties to Chinese entities, through family links for inst…

One of the problems is that Chinese Americans may still have family ties in China, and the CCP's United Front [1] or other orgs will use those ties to extort, blackmail, or otherwise pressure them. It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens. One thing that needs to happen if it's not the case alre…

It's impossible to make a case to right wingers because 2nd generation immigrants tend to be strictly left wing, and more progressive to boot. And imo, as a 2nd generation asian american, they tend to have a more overt racial identity and it doesn't necessarily manifest in a way that leads to a cohesive society. I knew a fair number of other asian americans who strictly saw America as a colonizing force, basically the bad guy. On one hand they're not wrong about the colonizing, but on the other hand it's not exactly a healthy mindset to have about your nation, and more to the point, it's antithetical to the entire right wing political ideology. The strict nationalism of the Chinese works in their favor imo, and the US doesn't have much of a chance in matching it.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that would be a few millenia patent. Its really a false equivalency..

I know. Let’s excuse the rules when it doesn’t convenience us. How about using drug addiction to force trade… then complaining that party doesn’t follow the trade rules? I love how we talk about how “China doesn’t follow the rules”… and completely ignore the context of how they were dragged into the game unwillingly

WHAT rules need excusing? they did not exist back then.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one talks about it? China inventing paper, printing and gunpowder is something every school child knows. I think I've heard about it about a million times. These facts are common knowledge; certainly paper and gunpowder. Printing is an odd example; the reason Gutenberg was influential is not the reason most people think. He did not invent movable type. He invented systems for mass producing movable type, particula…

>China inventing paper, printing and gunpowder is something every school child knows. Just anecdata, but prior to reading your comment I thought the Egyptians invented paper (papyrus) and Gutenberg invented printing.

When I was in elementary school I made paper out of cut up blue jeans and learned that it was invented in China. I also learned that the Egyptians invented papyrus, which was similar to paper but shittier. Recalling it now, I also remember that I grew up in a paper mill town.. so maybe my school placed an unusually strong emphasis on paper. Still, I don't think China inventing paper is esoteric knowledge in America.

I can't remember when I first heard that China invented wooden movable type, but I do recall reading about it a whole lot online in discussions quite like this one.

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