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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#381

Post by nradov »

tablespoon wrote: post #280
tomp wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure about that? It's the norm in Europe. E.g. you can't work for UK security services (MI5, MI6) unless one of your parents was also British, you lived in the UK for a while and you might be required to give up dual citizenship.

> Are you sure about that? It's the norm in Europe. E.g. you can't work for UK security services (MI5, MI6) unless one of your parents was also British, you lived in the UK for a while and you might be required to give up dual citizenship. I think it's actually similar for US security clearances, though not explicitly codified like that. IIRC, if you're a dual citizen, you have to renounce the non-American one. Appar…

I know US citizens who have Secret clearance and still maintain dual citizenship. And that includes some countries that aren't even treaty allies.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#382

Post by refenestrator »

Phileosopher wrote: post #287

This is difficult to parse in my Western mind. I've grown up with a constant understanding of implicit liberties, so much so that I have the freedom to openly _discuss_ my general distrust of the government. The events that float by in HN are outliers: threats of more risk, but statistically unusual enough that they're stories of interest. This means that living and acting in a country where your very _thoughts_ are…

Remember that nobody was threatened or, as a result, morally offended by China until the last few years when we figured out we couldn't keep them at the bottom of the value chain forever.

How do we live in a society where we can just be aimed at a new foreign enemy and all of our free, enlightened citizens go along every time? Russia (support afghanistan), Iran (support Iraq), Iraq (support gulf emirates), Al Qaeda, Afghanistan, Iraq again, now China! It seems so normal to us, because that's all we know.

They're not perfect, we're not perfect, and both states are feeding off of national rivalry to legitimize themselves because that's what states do.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#383

Post by axpy906 »

dylan522p wrote: post #27
klelatti wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that it's not the 51% (and I think some of the 51% may be held by non Chinese investors) that has been key but rather Allen Wu having the seal - so even without control of the board he's still been able to get control of the company.

Author here, there is a Singaporean investor as well, but they have deep Chinese ties. I agree with your assessment. Allen Wu is an American citizen too, but loyal to China with deep CCP contacts.

I don’t understand why this is buried and not at the top. Thanks for the article.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#384

Post by gumby »

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

> Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state.

I generally don’t like such jingoistic statements but I think this is basically true, at least in the 2020s.

I will also note that this has come as a surprise to many Chinese entrepreneurs, most famously (but far from exclusively) Jack Ma.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#385

Post by downWidOutaFite »

refenestrator wrote: post #382
Phileosopher wrote: post #287

This is difficult to parse in my Western mind. I've grown up with a constant understanding of implicit liberties, so much so that I have the freedom to openly _discuss_ my general distrust of the government. The events that float by in HN are outliers: threats of more risk, but statistically unusual enough that they're stories of interest. This means that living and acting in a country where your very _thoughts_ are…

Remember that nobody was threatened or, as a result, morally offended by China until the last few years when we figured out we couldn't keep them at the bottom of the value chain forever. How do we live in a society where we can just be aimed at a new foreign enemy and all of our free, enlightened citizens go along every time? Russia (support afghanistan), Iran (support Iraq), Iraq (support gulf emirates), Al Qaeda,…

That is not true. There have been many reports concerned with China's aggressive efforts at stealing IP for at least 10 years that I'm aware of, probably more like 20.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#386

Post by angelzen »

nsonha wrote: post #211
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

> no Western competitor will "win" in China. Period define "win"? To corporate America, making profit is a win. Even being the market leader is not a requirement.

How much profit does the Guatemalan subsidiary of Dole make?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#387

Post by civilized »

China has been doing this for, what, 30-40 years now? How is this news?

It is astonishing to me how many people have been, apparently, sleeping under a rock for decades, and are just now announcing their bitter realizations that China is not a free market open to Western companies.

Hillary Clinton did one of these announcements within the past year or so, and my eyes rolled right out of the back of my head.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#388

Post by justicezyx »

angelzen wrote: post #362
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

> US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk Chinese people earn 15-20% of graduate STEM degrees in US, double the percentage of 10 years ago, and not counting second generation Chinese. At this rate, 'US' STEM will be Chinese dominated long before anyone wakes up to the security risk. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11347 https://cset.georg…

What security risk?

This Mr. Wu did something bad inside China, without any evidence that he was colluding with the national and local government of China. How is that translate to security risk at US domestic?

And all these Chinese stem students already contributed critical work to the boom of high tech industry. You are not appreciting their hard work, and link a speculation to national security risk?! How heartless one can be, not only thankless, but vile and judgemental...

Edit:

I am a Chinese American born and raised in China.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#389

Post by Alupis »

nyolfen wrote: post #365
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

> Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root. this might be a formal narrative, but the simple truth is that we did it because it made powerful people rich and entrenched specific factions in both parties

> this might be a formal narrative, but the simple truth is that we did it because it made powerful people rich and entrenched specific factions in both parties

I don't think this is true. When these policies were first enacted upon, the revolution had just ended in China and Mao had just taken over. The population of China was large, but nothing like today, and cheap labor was plentiful all around the world. In short, there was nothing in particular that made doing business in China more lucrative than any other developing nation at the time.

The belief was that doing trade and business with the new Chinese government would encourage the developing nation to embrace western ideals... which it clearly did not.

Today, doing business in China is lucrative only because they have well over a billion people to buy products and use services... it's clearly short-term profit-driven thinking that has the likes of Apple bending over backwards to stay in the CCP's good graces, all the while the CCP steals Apple's IP, forces Apple to bend their morality, aid in censorship, unwittingly employ slave camps and more.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#390

Post by woofie11 »

pphysch wrote: post #283
nabla9 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ray Dalio is fucked. Bridgewater has been expanding and expanding their Chinese assets. Dalio moved his Home Office to Singapore to really manage the assets from diversifying between America and China. He is still defending his position. (He can't talk negatively about Cina anyways) 'Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said investors are misconstruing China's regulatory clampdown on tech companies as "anti-capitalist."' h…

Ray Dalio is actually part of the minority of the Western FIRE sector that is not "fucked", precisely because Bridgewater has a strong position in China. This is what "fucked" looks like: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=GoIg

Can you interpret this graph for those of us who don't understand the point?

Serious question.

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