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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

211–220 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#211
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

> no Western competitor will "win" in China. Period

define "win"? To corporate America, making profit is a win. Even being the market leader is not a requirement.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#212
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arm China is presumably licensing to Chinese SoC designers / manufacturers whose products are then included in devices that are exported.

They could try that, sure, but the "real" Arm would likely sue to stop imports at as many destinations as possible. And they'd probably win those court cases.

As I've said elsewhere:

These are not counterfeit goods though. Where has the law been broken in a way that gives Arm the power to act? Probably IP licensed under Chinese law and Arm China will probably get its way in Chinese courts.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#213

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

There is this guy named Karl (and actually if you read carefully a guy named Adam Smith) that has some relevant predictions on how that went sideways.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#214
post #197

Diversity happened. Civic nationalism empirically doesn't work [1]. Societies need some level of individual sacrifice for the group to prosper over the long term, and diversity kills the impulse to do that. Favoring the ingroup over the outgroup is a stable state for groups, starting from ants and ending with humans. Trying to eradicate those impulses was perhaps noble, but ended in utter failure. Hapless attempts at…

I wonder how many of the people who will be coming to flag you also blame Middle East strife on drawing lines without regard to ethnic territories?

I don’t think I’ve ever flagged anyone, I rarely even downvote.

With that said are you trying to make a case that analogies to the conclusion that some German cartographer drawing nice straight lines on a map of Africa in 1860 or whatever was a win for Africa?

The Middle East is a mess for a number of reasons, and in fairness some of them (like sitting on the tectonic fault line between Europe and Asia) predate predatory colonialism.

But most of them don’t predate predatory colonialism. The world powers of whatever era slicing and dicing it, toppling stable regimes, setting up pliant authoritarian regimes to extract resources cheaply, and generally raping the region senseless plays uh, a meaningful role in it being a mess.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#215

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

Well, on one hand you have mass ideological repression, concentration camps designed for cultural genocide against ethnic minorities, and censorship that means you can't trust common knowledge, so we don't even know if the persistent rumors of mass organ harvesting from religious dissidents are true. But on the other hand you have the capacity to manufacture respirators and stop pandemics dead in their tracks, not to mention most of the world's microelectronics (particularly if you include ROC), and PRC was vaccinating people in July of last year, only four months after the first vaccine was developed (in March in the USA).

Meanwhile, the EU has banned borax on grounds that amount to pure superstition, California has banned xylene, Texas only recently repealed a years-long lab glassware ban, the US Supreme Court didn't legalize screen-scraping until this year, and the USA still has 1% of its adult population imprisoned, just like shortly after the lead-driven crime wave crested 30 years ago (I guess its legislature does get some things done; they also direct the world's biggest military budget). Also, the US maaybe just passed 50% of the population believing in evolution, and gifted programs are being cut out of their high schools because they "promote inequality". And apparently police killing people with impunity is a major political cause in the US now? And let's not forget that Armadillo Aerospace had to abandon their working rocket engine design and restart from scratch because nobody would sell them peroxide, probably due to the US regulatory regime surrounding product liability. And when Clinton launched the National Nanotechnology Initiative in 02000, instead of diamondoid mechanosynthesis we got the fraudulent rebranding of any random submicron particle research, down to the study of medieval stained glass, as "nanotechnology".

In short, the US and EU are stupid enough that they're dooming themselves, regardless of whatever happens in China. I can empathize.

Having your government run by the kind of people who would vote for Donald Trump might be okay as long as the government doesn't control anything important, but inevitably putting the foolish and stupid in charge of the wise and learned is going to end in disaster, as it has with the covid pandemic. On the other hand, dictatorships and monarchies are no guarantee of wise leadership, often the opposite; they tend to oscillate randomly, often when succession happens. Marcus Aurelius is succeeded by Commodus, who is succeeded by Pertinax, then Didius Julianus, and the country is thrown into catastrophe. Qin Shi Huang may have been an asshole who destroyed China's cultural heritage, but he wasn't the fool Qin Er Shi was.

I'm not sure Star Trek is a worthy ideal; it's a militarist naval soap opera that doesn't begin to grapple with the political and psychological implications of post-scarcity civilization. Let's have the courage to imagine a future worth living in, and then create it.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#216

It's almost like China wants to make sure nobody ever lets them near useful IP again. This just seems counterproductive for them in the long run, though if you understand geopolitics better than I do, please help my understand how this is a good long-term strategy for China

China is closing off and turning inwards. It's a fundamental political drive due to their communist party structure. They can't continue to let the wealthy get richer because it threatens their grip on power, so you see Xi reverting to traditional socialist policies and cracking down on everyone that threatens him and his supporters.

So basically they're just rushing to steal and copy all the technology they can, so they can make everything they need for themselves internally. Their goal isn't to compete internationally, just to be self-reliant enough to have a reasonably good economy while maintaining absolute political control.

China probably doesn't care that they can't access IP from other countries again. They've mostly gotten what they need.

The alternative is that the party gradually loses its power, and that liberalisation eventually makes the whole system collapse. It's the exact same forces that made the Soviet Union collapse and it's well known that this is Xi's biggest fear.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#217

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

> For all its innumerable faults, flaws, and outright human rights violations: the West of the latter 20th century seemed like a plausible v0.0.1 of some future, hypothetical, benevolent society.

A large digression, but I do wish we didn't need these silly ritual flagellations each time we mention that the West was actually pretty good. To call these things "human rights violations" implies that the West defied some accepted standard for how we treated people, but the West was always on the leading edge for human rights (slavery, colonialism, racism, etc were normal on virtually every continent until the West decided they were wrong). We often talk about the West as though it is some great failure because it didn't emerge from the mists of history fully-formed and prepared to adhere to our modern moral standards, ignoring the fact that our modern moral standards are precisely the product of millennia of Western progress.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#218
post #190

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

The West and Americans (in my experience) take for granted that civil rights, free speech, democracy, and other values automatically create better outcomes than authoritarianism. This is how it was taught to me, and it seems baked into the culture. Unfortunately, the reality is that while (in my opinion) liberal values create better outcomes, it takes care and concerted effort to get the benefits. A democracy isn't a…

This comment should be the parent of mine. You’ve laid out a far more detailed and compelling case for what I called a “queasy feeling” about how the West lost its stride.
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