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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#261

Post by tomp »

colordrops wrote: post #171
908B64B197 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX). Even naturalization or birth in America can't erase ties to Chinese entities, through family links for inst…

Things will get really ugly once you codify special classes citizens and other US persons. It won't happen even though conservative congresspeople have been pushing for it for decades.

Are you sure about that? It's the norm in Europe. E.g. you can't work for UK security services (MI5, MI6) unless one of your parents was also British, you lived in the UK for a while and you might be required to give up dual citizenship.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#262

Post by obviouslynotme »

benreesman wrote: post #238
obviouslynotme wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you win in full-contact sports So we need a totalitarian government to compete with their totalitarian government? No thank you. If your company gets ripped off by the Chinese, like many do, then that is your company's fault.

There’s a little daylight between having a central committee and having legislators who don’t even pretend that the top of their to-do list every day is preventing, ya know, legislation. This is a non-partisan observation. Everybody pulls this shit these days.

If you want a rubber stamp committee, then someone has to dictate that rubber stamp.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#263

Post by JumpCrisscross »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #248
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

Or that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter. A quite foolish assumption given the 20th century counterexamples of capitalism + authoritarianism - Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan. In the 90s, Wall St. and corporate America bankrolled the largest ever lobbying campaign to open US markets and the WTO to China, and got it by 2000. Just…

> that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter

This was never argued by anyone of prominence in the debates on China's WTO accession. Raising living standards through trade was the pitch. The faulty assumption was wealthier Chinese would demand more freedom. That didn't happen.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#264

Post by factorialboy »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #253
ridiculous_leke wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Chinese government will ensure that no Western competitor will "win" in China. Period. I understand why to a point. My main issue is with the West being completely oblivious to it. > If China wants to impose such restrictions on Western companies, they shouldn't get access to Western markets. And that's it. And there are people around who give this a pass. And usually the defense is "China is just following Chi…

And if China is in China, they can follow Chinese law. Once they come out of China, to do business with the West, then that excuse doesn't cut it. (Just like the way that Western companies have to follow Chinese law to do business in China.)

I slap when when you come over to my home, because it's rule of my home.

When you invite me, I take advantage of your hospitality and enjoy some tea.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#265

Post by SkyMarshal »

Proven wrote: post #37
njarboe wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Softbank held 49%. "SoftBank subsidiary sold a 51% stake of the company to a consortium of Chinese investors for paltry $775M."

Of course it was sold for a paltry sum. Does anyone think they were not nudged to sell to local state-designated champ and had one serious candidate (with the CCP pulling the strings behind the scene)?

Softbank was also in the middle of the failed WeWork IPO at the time, and probably needed to make a quick sale to raise cash.

Any time you're in a hurry to buy or sell, and the counterparties know that, you're gonna get taken to the cleaners.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#266

Post by jjmellon »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #89
monocasa wrote: post #33

I'm not sure what anyone expected when we cut China off of chip IP. We did the same thing in the US, we had a policy of just straight up encouraging people to memorize patents before they immigrated over, and paying for their family to immigrate with them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Slater

Are there more examples of this? I want to cite them every time people defend intellectual property.

The Hollywood movie industry was created to escape from Edison's patent enforcement actions on the east coast.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#267

Post by pjlegato »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #248
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

Or that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter. A quite foolish assumption given the 20th century counterexamples of capitalism + authoritarianism - Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan. In the 90s, Wall St. and corporate America bankrolled the largest ever lobbying campaign to open US markets and the WTO to China, and got it by 2000. Just…

Fascism is not a capitalist economic model. It is a "third way" socioeconomic system that proposes an alternative to both capitalism and socialism where both capital and labor are regulated by an all-powerful stern father figure Leader, who mediates and subordinates their petty squabbling to nationalistic interests.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#268

Post by vikiomega9 »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #217
benreesman wrote: post #131

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

> For all its innumerable faults, flaws, and outright human rights violations: the West of the latter 20th century seemed like a plausible v0.0.1 of some future, hypothetical, benevolent society. A large digression, but I do wish we didn't need these silly ritual flagellations each time we mention that the West was actually pretty good. To call these things "human rights violations" implies that the West defied some…

I agree with you except post-independence in the middle of the 19th and 20th century, the supposedly benevolent West hedged and continue to plunder and usurp Africa and Asia. Values based? Sure, see how rational it is, for you but not for us. We must agree upon universal declarations and you better listen up we know what we're doing.

I have no idea why you think these are `silly ritual flagellations`. Drop everything, the British left the Indian subcontinent in flames. Oh wait, this sounds a lot like Afghanistan. Down vote me for all I care, but if you've not experienced the horror of colonialism and the mess we have to pickup after and fix, with poverty, disease and f_cking IP (TB, Aids, Food Security), and fragile democracy setup to serve external masters, in the presence of evolved men, I respectfully ask you to be empathetic to a lot of voices that still can't be heard. You clearly don't seem to understand the utter s_it some of us and our parents have lived through.

Sure, the awesome Western cultural evolution is grand and something to wait for, who knows what form it will take.

Ok, let's drop all of history except the last 70 years. The zenith of evolution. A poor country had to give you, the West, the finger to save the less fortunate from Aids[1].

I respectfully ask you to continue to self-flagellate.

[1] https://qz.com/india/1666032/how-indian-pharma-giant-cipla-m....

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#269

Post by droopyEyelids »

barrkel wrote: post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

Maglev trains, and also with McDonnell Douglas/Boeing and airframes.

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/how-bill-clinton-and-amer...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#270

Post by cbnotfromthere »

pjlegato wrote: post #267
SkyMarshal wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter. A quite foolish assumption given the 20th century counterexamples of capitalism + authoritarianism - Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan. In the 90s, Wall St. and corporate America bankrolled the largest ever lobbying campaign to open US markets and the WTO to China, and got it by 2000. Just…

Fascism is not a capitalist economic model. It is a "third way" socioeconomic system that proposes an alternative to both capitalism and socialism where both capital and labor are regulated by an all-powerful stern father figure Leader, who mediates and subordinates their petty squabbling to nationalistic interests.

[dead]
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