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The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...yes? Listen, if you are prepared to seriously consider a lab leak, then you have to assume that any public statements from Chinese authorities are dubious. I’m pretty sure my own government makes dubious statements all the time so it’s not hard to imagine.

I’m seriously considering it and put it higher than 0%. But if you think your hypothesis is the most likely outcome (>50%), and your defense at any evidence that discounts your view is that it is a giant and incredible cover up by the Chinese government then I guess we have very different priors about how easy it is to pull off massive conspiracies. And also remember the people that leaked that 2-3 employees were hos…

I would say pulling off this massive conspiracy is looking less and less likely.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#262
post #164

Assuming the chance of a lab leak is non-zero, it is worth considering how this will ever end. - If there was any hard evidence actually proving they had SARS-CoV-2 in the lab before the pandemic, it will be long gone. Only an independent full access forensic level investigation would ever find any sign that evidence was destroyed, and that is never going to happen. - It seems extremely unlikely to me that anyone fro…

>even if the USA for example had actual evidence of a lab leak, they would be better off using this as leverage over China secretly than releasing it publicly.

That seems unlikely to work.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#263
post #6
post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

It gets worse - gain of function research was banned under Obama until the ban was lifted in 2017 under Trump - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... I can’t find sources for this right now but apparently Dr Anthony Fauci played a key role in getting the ban lifted. He’s also the head of the NIAID ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci ) which (apparently) is the ultimate source for…

> It gets worse - gain of function research was banned under Obama until the ban was lifted in 2017 under Trump...

I'm not sure that claim aligns with historical NIH funding for gain of function research: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9819304

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#264
post #250

Why is the lab leak theory so taboo? I dont understand why this would want to be glossed over? If a mistake was made why are we not learning from it? Why would China care? its not like anything would change if they admitted a mea culpa here. I just feel like so many factors point to this not being a 'wild' virus it just didnt make sense to not investigate if this was a lab leak. Lets learn here and do better.

really not getting it here- even if my home country had a lab leak I would be interested in learning from a mistake.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#265

This is a good article. There's been so much junk over the past couple of weeks or so that it's been very frustrating. I've mostly been watching the debate unfold on Twitter, and it's confirmed for me that Twitter is a terrible place for real intellectually-curious discussion (probably social media in general). I've been wondering certain things, especially why Marc Lipsitch (one of the most consistently trustworthy…

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once the situation was out they did everything properly to fix it at home, and then even contributed to the science work on the virus (just not on the lab origin hypothesis, but all other work on the virus structure, illness mechanisms, potential vaccines or medications, yes). All the geopolitical tensions around China, both Koreas, and Japan, are just about losing or not losing face. Most of the time they would larg…

I'm not sure what your point is here. That the Wuhan lab shouldn't be called out for likely causing a global pandemic? It's being done in a very fair and non-aggressive manner. I don't really see what other approach could be said to take into account this stereotype more.

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first observations of illness and mortality of the Spanish Flu were actually in the US. The origin of the name of the Spanish Flu is due to it being reported in the news most freely and widely in Spain as many other nations were limiting reporting due to being embroiled in WWI. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

I know this to be the case but it was still first thought to have originated in Spain.

The Wikipedia page cites no theory that places the origin in Spain. It cites theories of origin for the US, France, China and Europe in general.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They indirectly gave WIV funding to support research into Pig SARS -- Swine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV). There is exactly fuckoff zero evidence that funding wound up supporting gain of function research for anything. And giving China money to study diseases in pigs happening in China that are closely related to a human disease that we were worried about it (or maybe a close relative) spilling over…

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#269
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying it's shady to provide that funding. What I'm saying is it demonstrates conflict of interest. Last year in May 5 2020 Fauci dismissed the idea that the virus came from a lab that his own organisation was providing funds to - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anthony-fauci-wuhan-lab-coronav... Whether or not anything shady was happening, the conflict of interest is clear.

It's not a conflict of interest because Dr. Fauci wasn't gaining anything. The agency he is head of is specifically interested in infectious disease and has a large budget for grants. $120K per year pays for a couple plate of genetic samples and tech time to run them. Maybe in China you can run a few more for that cost, I don't know. As head of that agency, it's also his job to share his professional opinion with the…

For a measly $120k grant, I doubt Fauci was involved in the award whatsoever.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#270
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The calculation is simple and could have been made in early 2020. What's the joint probability of occurrence given everything you know about the origins of SARS-CoV-2? There is _very_ high probability that this is just a human error.

Was every other emerging virus also created in a lab? SARS? MERS? Influenza? Polio? The highest probability is this virus originated like every other virus in history.

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