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The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#71

Post by jkhdigital »

peter422 wrote: post #56
yumraj wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did any of them originate a few miles from a pathogen research lab that handled such pathogen that caused those outbreaks?

I don’t dispute it is one point of suspicion, but Wuhan is also one of the 10 biggest cities in China. It isn’t a surprise the first US outbreak was in the biggest city. The first cases could have been anywhere. If there were more evidence that it was lab made then the location would be another point, not to me without further evidence it doesn’t mean all that much. And there have been 2 emerging coronavirus outbreak…

> If there were more evidence that it was lab made

Have you actually read any of these articles? The location of the lab is like the tip of the iceberg.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#72

Post by Leary »

Wall Street Journal's article on US Intelligence having information on the three potential sick WIV researchers was written by a reporter named Michael R. Gordon[1].

[1]https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-w...

This is the same Michael R. Gordon who in 2002 wrote the famous NYTimes article saying US Intelligence had credible information that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction (Thousands of aluminium tubes) [2] and led to the Iraq War.

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/08/world/threats-responses-i...

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#73

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

rootsudo wrote: post #22

It is, the narrative last year was that if you pointed at Wuhan, or Chinese Lab Leak, you were racist/bigoted.

That's not how I remember the narrative.

It was split in two.

1. Calling it "the china virus", as the former president was wont to do, was labelled racist/bigoted/nationalistic by those who did not simply agree with anything he said.

2. The claim that it originated in the Wuhan lab was viewed as unlikely, and there was (is) an alternative biological origin story which at the time seemed credible and more likely.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#74

Post by 542458 »

tpfour wrote: post #55
542458 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes lab leak more probable than cross species transfer, something that happens all the time?

It's the joint probability of everything we know. p(Epidemic started in Wuhan) * p(origin in market right next to lab) * p(lab is one of 3 in the world to conduct gain-of-function research on conronaviruses) * p(lab scientists were notably sick prior to outbreak) * p(no accident ever happening in a lab) * p(et cetera) = very small number. That's not evidence per se, but it does show you how probable a human error is.

I can’t help but feel you’re taking all the “for” factors and none of the “against”, then bending the “for” factors even further.

Calling the market “right next to the lab” is a bit of a stretch - it’s a three and a half hour walk.

The scientists getting sick early doesn’t actually seem to be confirmed - there’s still debate in the US intelligence community whether it’s true. And going to the hospital because you’re sick means something a bit different in China where primary care is rare.

And as for “against”... no mention of the virus not matching any backbones in use for genetic experimentation, or the suboptimal binding to humans, both of which would suggest against engineering.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095063/

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#76

Post by nostromo »

ctoth wrote: post #7

Another pretty good article, certainly higher quality than you'd consider given the source[0]. What switch flipped to make all these come out right now? [0]: https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how-amateur-sleuths-broke...

The reason it's coming out now is because Trump is gone.

During the election, most of the media decided to ignore anything they were afraid would help Trump or hurt Biden.

Whether an activist media is good or bad is left as an exercise for the reader.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#77

Post by harryf »

arrosenberg wrote: post #37
harryf wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It gets worse - gain of function research was banned under Obama until the ban was lifted in 2017 under Trump - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... I can’t find sources for this right now but apparently Dr Anthony Fauci played a key role in getting the ban lifted. He’s also the head of the NIAID ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci ) which (apparently) is the ultimate source for…

You are getting downvoted because it's muckraking. There is nothing shady about NIAID giving a (verrrry small for this type of research) grant to a foreign research lab, which is doing research about a topic of interest. That's how you ensure the U.S. government gets a copy of the results.

I'm not saying it's shady to provide that funding. What I'm saying is it demonstrates conflict of interest. Last year in May 5 2020 Fauci dismissed the idea that the virus came from a lab that his own organisation was providing funds to - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anthony-fauci-wuhan-lab-coronav...

Whether or not anything shady was happening, the conflict of interest is clear.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#78

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

tpfour wrote: post #50
peter422 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was every other emerging virus also created in a lab? SARS? MERS? Influenza? Polio? The highest probability is this virus originated like every other virus in history.

You're taking this the wrong way. You have to update your priors and calculate a joint probability knowing everything we know about the origins of this particular virus.

Except that we still don't actually know very much about the origins of this virus.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#79

Post by lawnchair_larry »

bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

The sad part is this is all very old news, but the left leaning media wouldn’t report it. Worse, they equated it with conspiracy theorists and Q anon. If this isn’t your media red pill, I don’t know what is.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#80

Post by jkhdigital »

peter422 wrote: post #59
JPKab wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several were HOSPITALIZED with a respiratory illness, in a lab studying bat viruses on humanized mice. The cognitive dissonance you are suffering is painful, I'm sure, but it's obviously clouding your judgment.

Those same people were tested for antibodies and they were negative. Or I guess that is also part of the cover up.

...yes? Listen, if you are prepared to seriously consider a lab leak, then you have to assume that any public statements from Chinese authorities are dubious. I’m pretty sure my own government makes dubious statements all the time so it’s not hard to imagine.
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