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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#461

Post by imtringued »

cbmuser wrote: post #140
bregma wrote: post #12

The article says the world relies on fossil fuel for energy because it's cheaper. That's true. It doesn't mention that the world relies on it because it's reliable. It doesn't disappear for 6 months of the year, or stop producing for 3 out of 5 days or during peak demand periods. Make renewables cheaper and more reliable and they will replace fossil fuels in a snap. Cheaper is not enough if it doesn't do the job.

To make wind and solar power more reliable, you need to stop earth rotation or manipulate the climate to produce continuous sunlight and/or wind. That’s simply impossible. The only reliable renewable enery is hydropower and maybe geothermal power.

This reminds me of a comment about Creality's belted 3D printer not being able to violate the laws of physics and then someone added rollers so long prints don't fall of the bed...

Seemingly complicated problems don't necessarily require complicated solutions.

You can do three easy things. Create bigger electricity grids with more decentralized generation (the whole earth receives a roughly constant amount of energy from the sun), overproduce energy or build some storage.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#462

Post by plater »

adrianN wrote: post #386
adamredwoods wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For reference, list of large power plants and their output: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_power_stations The largest solar plant is at about 2000 MW and requires a lot of land. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhadla_Solar_Park The largest wind farm is not being used as efficiently as it could: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gansu_Wind_Farm

Land area used for renewables always sounds like a lot, but it's not that much if you compare it to agriculture. For example, in Germany we use 2.4 million hectares for "energy crops". Just replacing those monocultures with solar panels would cover most of Germany's energy demand and leave some room for biodiversity under the panels.

In addition, solar panels can be put on top of existing infrastructure like houses so it takes no additional land.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#463

Post by pydry »

redisman wrote: post #400
Qwertious wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? Saudi Arabia has a sovereign wealth fund with trillions of dollars. The obvious answer is that they'll build a ton of renewables and build a ton of [hydroponic/aquaponic/aeroponic/etc] farms to make food locally. Indoor farming is expensive but very water-efficient, which suits Saudi…

They have a lot of money to invest and they could also export solar if they want to stay in the energy business. Lots of sunlight there.

Export to whom? Everybody else in the vicinity also has a lot of sunlight. Why wouldn't they make their own power at home and save on transmission costs?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#464

Post by imtringued »

hooloovoo_zoo wrote: post #309
spenrose wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California has high rates , like the Northeast[1], primarily because it pulls some externalities onto the bill. Red-state residents not paying for the cost of pollution doesn't eliminate the cost! But California has moderate bills due to decades of work on efficiency. (Climate helps somewhat, but there is a huge AC load in 30m-inhabitant SoCal.) [1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/

I don't agree with this externality justification. I could get a 100% renewable backed plan in Houston for 1/3 the rate I pay in San Jose.

Does Houston have a carbon tax that prices the externalities into your electricity bill? If not then that's why fossil fuels are still cheaper. They don't have to pay for the externalities.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#465

Post by hannob »

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Interestingly there are signs that Saudi Arabia has this on the radar more than others.

E.g. they're building the larges green ammonia plant in the world. You may not hear a lot about ammonia production and green ammonia, but this is really huge (not just because ammonia is important for fertilizers, but also because ammonia is a promising future shipping fuel).

But yeah, there are other oil countries where you barely see any such signs (e.g. Russia).

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#466

Post by 495636483 »

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Why do you think Saudi Arabia is slowly allowing women to participate? They need them in the workforce for an economically sustainable future. They know they are heading for crisis rapidly and investing hard to get out of there. However, they are ridiculously dependent on oil. Oil money is basically the whole country's sugar daddy (not for the slaves and foreign workers...). People don't really work there, they all just live off the oil money. Literally every aspect of their lives need to change.

I really doubt the rest of the world needs to be too concerned about them. They are pretty uniquely fucked and not that many people anyway.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#467

Post by pjc50 »

tachyonbeam wrote: post #289
mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

It's going to be both. Tesla is working hard on mass-producing more affordable batteries. At the level of individuals it's already worthwhile. For 20K you can have enough Powerwall batteries to power your home when the sun isn't shining. 20K isn't that much on a 300-500K house. Competition will come and the price will come down more. Couple that with automated buying/selling of renewable power at different times of t…

> For 20K you can have enough Powerwall batteries to power your home when the sun isn't shining

Huge amount of money to get off the grid - how many years of bills is that?

I have a 4kW system up here at 56 degrees north, and there's no way I could go off grid with it because the seasonality is huge; I can't store power all the way through the winter. I get it from the big offshore windfarms instead.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#468

Post by Shacklz »

ampdepolymerase wrote: post #397
ashtonkem wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi needs to do one of two things before the oil runs out: 1) Diversify their economy 2) Build up enough sovereign wealth to maintain their citizens standard of living after the oil has run out. The first is very hard, because huge percentages of their population are completely disengaged from the economy. It's estimated that 30-40% of working age adults neither have a job, nor are looking for one. An unusually hig…

Why isn't anyone studying the Arabic states as UBI models? Incompatibility with western democracy? They are the closest to a large scale UBI system right now. Much bigger than those toy hundred people sort-of-UBI-but-not-really experiments.

Because the idea of UBI is that it's universal basic income, which keeps you fed and a roof over your head and other such basic things. I heavily doubt that the mentioned 30-40% of the population are okay to live with the bare minimum without having any interest in doing something to change that; that's only possible if your actual income allows for more than that, which seems to be the case in the Saudi States.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#469

Post by pjc50 »

okareaman wrote: post #335
MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an upper midwesterner, that would be an incredibly hard sell. You could whip up support for coal again in heartbeat. Renewables are a great idea in theory, but in reality don't jive well with people in the non-windy, non-sunny areas that also get really damn cold. It's sad to say it but nothing can beat what natural gas and coal can do already. They're cheap and can be used to generate electricity at an extraordin…

If I understand what you're saying, it is that there's little wind, not much sun and it's extremely cold in say, North Dakota, so fossil fuels are cheaper there? Seems to be about a 10 mph avg wind speed [1] and sunny about half the time in daylight hours in winter [2] [1] https://www.ndsu.edu/climate/North%20Dakota%20Data/Yearly%20... [2] http://www.bismarck.climatemps.com/sunlight.php

You'd have thought that high demand would increase fossil prices? No, they're cheap in North Dakota because of all the fracking there.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#470

Post by HPsquared »

throwaway201103 wrote: post #80
WalterBright wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have cheap "batteries" in our homes. Run the electric water heater when the power is cheap. Water in the tank stays hot for a couple days. The only piece missing here is an internet-connected thermostat for the tank that inquires about the spot price for electricity and turns on when it's cheap. The same thing applies to your HVAC system.

You're exaggerating a bit. Water heater will stay hot for a day or so, but will rapidly cool when you start using it and cold water flows in. House will be uncomfortably cold after a few hours in the wintertime if the heat is not running, and it's not really practical to overheat it when electric rates are low/free because you can only go maybe 10 degrees before it's really too warm for comfort. You'd need a heat tan…

It's technically possible to store heat for several months, e.g. in a large water tank, and use that heat over the winter. Only really feasible for very thermally efficient houses, but it can be done: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_thermal_energy_storag...
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