Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

ourworldindata.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

371–380 of 642 posts

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#371

Post by ashtonkem »

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

As an interesting addendum to what you said, how many countries are ready for the internal turmoil that the collapse of fossil fuel prices will cause? Consider the coal mining areas of the Eastern United States, and how badly the collapse of the coal mining industry has damaged those towns.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#372

Post by missedthecue »

dsr_ wrote: post #159
rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Right now, Saudi Aramco is worth $1.9 trillion.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#373

Post by ashtonkem »

mooreds wrote: post #336
MR4D wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But read his other book first: Accidental Superpower. Also, he narrates that book but not the new one. Which is too bad because his narration is truly additive to the book.

Good point, "The Accidental Superpower" is wondrous in scope and ideas. The "Absent Superpower", the sequel, is OK; had some interesting insights about shale and the coming removal of the USA from the world. But the first book is timeless. His Twitter feed is high signal as well: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/

Increasingly, I wonder if the Absent Superpower is going to miss a lot of predictions due to the reduced importance of fossil fuels, which is the main driver of his narrative.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#374

Post by puranjay »

rtx wrote: post #329
wp381640 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest power stations at the moment are always going to be stored hydro - they take up a lot of land. Those large coal burners also take up a lot of land when you consider the mines, transport infra, tailings dams, coal piles not to mention the clean air they "take up"

Thats why we should be exclusively nuclear.

Hear hear. We need a massive pro-nuclear public campaign. When people think of "nuclear power", they just think of Chernobyl.

In hindsight, Chernobyl might have done more harm to the planet than we thought - it single handedly turned public opinion against nuclear power, and all the clean energy it provides.

One wonders if we would have any of our current climate issues if we had adopted nuclear power en masse in the 80s and 90s.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#375

Post by albertop »

outworlder wrote: post #100
albertop wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rooftop solar still have 5+ years ROI. Recently utilities changed billing plans to make it even less attractive.

> Rooftop solar still have 5+ years ROI Why is that a problem? Most people take multiples of that time just to pay off their mortgage. Maybe if you are house flipping, but even then this tends to increase their value.

Seems like an elitist point of view. Just pointing out the for the middle class family putting a lot of money to maybe get even after 5+ years is not very attractive.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#376

Post by albertop »

outworlder wrote: post #106
albertop wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are their prices?

See links below. https://www.siliconvalleypower.com/residents/rates-and-fees https://www.siliconvalleypower.com/svp-and-community/about-s...

That is very good. Thank you!

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#377

Post by ashtonkem »

dsr_ wrote: post #159
rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Saudi needs to do one of two things before the oil runs out:

1) Diversify their economy

2) Build up enough sovereign wealth to maintain their citizens standard of living after the oil has run out.

The first is very hard, because huge percentages of their population are completely disengaged from the economy. It's estimated that 30-40% of working age adults neither have a job, nor are looking for one. An unusually high percentage of those who have jobs work for the government, and somewhere close to 90% of non-oil jobs are held by foreigners. There is immense social and economic pressure against citizens of KSA getting private sector jobs. The biggest "employer" in the country is the yearly hajj pilgrimage, which isn't a lot.

The latter is incredibly hard because of the former. That 30-40% of the population that don't have jobs need to be fed, or they'll eventually revolt. And all of those government jobs cost a huge amount of money. And the fact that the citizens of KSA neither want jobs (apparently) and aren't properly trained for a lot of those jobs makes reducing the social services bill very, very hard.

If they can outrun the de-carbonization of the world, KSA will do okay. Maybe not as good as it was during the peak (if you were one of the few getting the benefits), but not terrible. If they don't outrun de-carbonization .... well, then I would recommend not being there when whatever happens, happens.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#378

Post by newyankee »

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Middle eastern countries are a bad example. They have a very small population and were mostly supported by immigrant workers. A lot of the elites might've squandered the wealth but sovereign funds seem to have locked a fair bit of it in futuristic investments.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#379

Post by disown »

ozborn wrote: post #330
disown wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's inevitable; fossil fuels are on the way out. It's not on the way out. Fossil fuel use is increasing and projected to increase for the next 3 decades at least. solar/wind/etc account for pretty much nothing today. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio... And the 2050 projection shows that petroleum and natural gas use will increase and that even coal will rebound by 2050. https://www.eia.…

EIA projections are garbage and have been for years, go look at their own old projections if you want to verify this. World coal consumption peaked in 2013, not sure why you believe it is coming back in 2050?! Most of the new global energy production brought online is renewables, and has been for the last 4 years...The renewable fraction is also increasing. Not sure why you believe fossil fuel use will increase for t…

> EIA projections are garbage and have been for years, go look at their own old projections if you want to verify this.

Okay.

> World coal consumption peaked in 2013, not sure why you believe it is coming back in 2050?!

Because more than half the world's population has yet to industrialize.

> Most of the new global energy production brought online is renewables, and has been for the last 4 years..

Okay.

> Not sure why you believe fossil fuel use will increase for the next 3 decades?!

Firstly, because they are increasing. Secondly, more than half the world's population has yet to industrialize. Thirdly, tons of investment in natural gas.

Fossil fuel use is increasing in the US. Do you really think it'll slow in poor developing countries in south asia, south east asia and africa? I believe fossil fuel use will increase for the same reason EIA and every other major energy agency believes it will increase. Reality.

Post reply on HN