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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#141

Post by mrDmrTmrJ »

dragonwriter wrote: post #119
mrDmrTmrJ wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

> PG&E is a monopoly combined with an inadvertent domestic terrorist organization. You can't be an inadvertent terrorist organization. Not everyone who is responsible for multiple lethal felonies is a terrorist.

Yes, "inadvertent terrorist" would normally be a contradiction in terms, as 'terrorism is the act of killing innocent people to spread terror and extort a body politic to make a political change'. So this can't be inadvertent.

Yet, PG&E 1) kills innocent people 2) demands more money from the population it kills 3) is unable to stop killing people 4) covers up their malfeasance in court 5) repeatedly sets my state on fire.

Agreed that PG&E is "responsible for multiple lethal felonies."

But, in your comment, I'll note you only identified the problem instead of proposed a solution! So what English language phrase do you suggest to describe the above behavior?

Does 'Functionally equivalent to a violent Mafioso organization that doesn't actually want to kill but does wants all your money and can't stop killing you?' satisfy your standards for the use of the English language? I reserve the right to be hyperbolic in my frustration as long as PG&E keeps this up.

Politely, I ask you to resolve the problem you identified. As by the use of the word 'inadvertent', I demonstrated that I know the definition in my initial comment :)

Finally, does "Substantially more evil than Comcast" work here?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#142

Post by spurgu »

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #60
jpollock wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though you're 15km from a primary source, the network is built to provide you electricity even if that source is down. That requires connections to generators much further away. It's the uptime that adds costs.

The privatized electric grid companies were granted permission to raise prices for funding grid expansion. A later audit discovered that they pocketed 90% of the raise. (the expansion cost only 10%) Even closer than the hydro dam there's a waste incinerator plant 3km from my home. Even if the hydro wasn't 100% reliable which of course it isn't (the channel is drained occasionally for maintenance), they can burn trash…

Privatization as its finest.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#143

Post by renewiltord »

xyzzyz wrote: post #122
renewiltord wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, a normal electricity marketplace would eat up the profits from getting more efficient renewables. e.g. If fossil is $4/kW and wind is $2/kW then normal market buys all the wind at $2/kW. Here, government will pay $2/kW premium on the wind. That means every cost gain on wind goes to the provider.

In a competitive market, the surplus resulting from reduction in wholesale cost of electricity would fall mostly on consumer side: market would buy wind at $2/kWh, but the retail consumer prices would also fall correspondingly. Alas, utilities are rarely competitive markets, so the electricity retailers have more ability to capture some of the surplus.

Right, but here you don't want it to fall to $2. That's your mechanism of a subsidy to the generating side. It is intentionally non-competitive.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#144

Post by cbmuser »

Ma8ee wrote: post #71
jes5199 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in the past they were cheaper. Now renewables are cheaper. Right now, intermittent renewables actually drives up the cost of fossil fuels! Renewables do wacky things to the spot price of power - sometimes electricity is free or even has negative value, sometimes it's expensive. Ideally fossil fuel plants would only spin up when they could sell power at a profit, but they can't dispatch so quickly, so they end up sell…

I think we’ll start using more ways to store the energy. In the scenarios you describe, when the energy price fluctuate so wildly, the processes don’t have to be efficient. There’s not really a problem if 70% is lost in the process if the energy we started with is free. Pumping water to higher elevation or hydrogen production is suddenly reasonable.

There is no reasonable and economic way to store Terawatthours of electricity.

Even huge hydrostorage plants have only a few GWh.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#145

Post by rossdavidh »

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time.

Now, instead of rooting for that change, we can think about the actual consequences. It's inevitable; fossil fuels are on the way out. What does that mean, besides lower carbon?

It means that countries which rely on fossil fuels for their economy, are going to see the same kind of crushing economic decline that, say, the UK coal industry has.

What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death?

To be clear, I'm not saying we should somehow try to prevent fossil fuels exiting the scene. The change in energy sources to lower-carbon ones is an old one, and there's no way to stop it, nor should we try. Wood gave way to coal and then oil and then natural gas, and the process will continue with zero-carbon sources like photovoltaics. That's a bullet that's already been fired, and there's no way to stuff it back inside the barrel of the gun.

But, do we really have a plan for the consequences, not only in Saudi Arabia but also every other nation that's dependent on oil? Hint: we do not.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#146

Post by GuB-42 »

WalterBright wrote: post #72
davidwitt415 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RTFA: Batteries and electricity storage follow learning curves too One of the downsides of renewable sources is their intermittent supply cycle. The sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. Technologies like batteries that store electric power are key to balance the changing supply from renewables with the inflexible demand for electricity. Fortunately electricity storage technologies are also among…

We already have cheap "batteries" in our homes. Run the electric water heater when the power is cheap. Water in the tank stays hot for a couple days. The only piece missing here is an internet-connected thermostat for the tank that inquires about the spot price for electricity and turns on when it's cheap. The same thing applies to your HVAC system.

No need for internet connected anything. But there is a need for a "smart grid".

We, in France, have a very primitive system based peak / off-peak hours used in many houses, and I expect other countries to have the same kind of system since it is so simple.

Basically, you have an extra wire coming out of the meter. If there is voltage, it is peak hours, if there is no voltage, if is off-peak. To that wire, you connect a relay which sits in the breaker panel. That relay can turn a circuit on or off, often the water heater, so that it only runs off-peak. You can force it on if you know you are going to use more hot water than usual.

Such a simple thing, but updated in real time can already go a long way. In a more advanced system, the meter could tell you the price of electricity via PLC and you could have a relay in your breaker box that turns on a circuit depending on price.

Even smarter devices could receive the signal from the meter directly and do more things, for example, many appliances have a "delayed start" function. A "start when electricity is cheap" function would be a great addition.

The problem is that would require standardization. A standard protocol shared by utilities and electric device manufacturers. As for communication, PLC sounds ideal, it doesn't have to be fast, and it could also be the same signal used by the utility to remotely check the meter for billing (something that is being deployed in France, BTW).

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#147

Post by vlovich123 »

mrDmrTmrJ wrote: post #98
99_00 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Germany's experience a success or failure? What is the counter to this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/09/05...

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

Didn’t the 2009 Recovery Act that Obama spearheaded also have a heavily invest in renewables? [1] Over 10 years it averaged to about 9 billion per year. I seem to recall that this investment push was twofold: investment in American renewable tech and rebates to spur demand. China heavily cut solar prices to undercut those solar investments (leading to Solyndra’s bankruptcy) but that had the effect of lowering prices further spurring demand worldwide.

I don’t have a sense of Germany’s impact in this space as I haven’t kept abreast of their investment nor about the specifics of renewable investments more broadly.

[1] https://grist.org/energy/obamas-recovery-act-breathed-life-i...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#148

Post by mrDmrTmrJ »

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Here's an article worth your time on this topic:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/05/climate-geopolitics-pet...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#149

Post by xyzzyz »

sxates wrote: post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

How much savings/profit do these actually generate to you? I guess some quite significant numbers, if you decided to actually expand capacity.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#150

Post by kmonsen »

cbmuser wrote: post #136
gandalfian wrote: post #61

The Germans paid for it creating the market/industry. Vast amounts. Then the Chinese thought it looked like a good industry to be in and threw unbelievable money at developing manufacturing capacity. If the Germans keep voting green and being parsimonious savers then we may yet get cheap batteries and survive.

That’s rather inaccurate. German electricity prices are so high because renewables need backup power plants and German law mandates that these plants (mostly coal and gas) are not allowed to operate unless wind and solar are unable to provide sufficient electricity. Also, Germany‘s energy sector still accounts to 350 million tons CO2 emissions annually while France only accounts for 50 million tons CO2 p.a. That’s th…

That is because renewables are cheap to make now and in the future. In the past they were not, and as a result we do not have the capacity to make them at the moment (and might not before it collapses).

I agree that currently nuclear makes sense as if there is political will it could be scaled up quickly and at the very least provide base power.

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