Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#11

Post by lambda_obrien » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

albertop wrote: post #5

Too bad that low cost is invisible for the consumers. California has one of the most, if not the most, expensive electricity in spite of years of investment in renewables.

The cost of electricity in CA is mostly the cost of the distribution infrastructure maintenance, which is a value approved on several levels of government, and the actual electron cost is hidden from the end user behind layers and layers of contracts.

The cost of electricity, then, is based on some fixed costs of infrastructure: we still haven't figured out how to make more electrons go down less metal wire than in the past. Any savings will result in lack of maintenance, aka: fires.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#12

Post by bregma » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:15 PM UTC

The article says the world relies on fossil fuel for energy because it's cheaper. That's true. It doesn't mention that the world relies on it because it's reliable. It doesn't disappear for 6 months of the year, or stop producing for 3 out of 5 days or during peak demand periods. Make renewables cheaper and more reliable and they will replace fossil fuels in a snap. Cheaper is not enough if it doesn't do the job.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#13

Post by gruez » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:16 PM UTC

simongr3dal wrote: post #9

the_economist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's still the problem of what to do between 4pm and 8 am on a day without wind, which means we won't be able to shut down too many power plants until cheap energy storage exists.

Global energy grid?

You really want to be dependent on other countries for your vital infrastructure? Imagine if we go to war with china/russia, and they shut down energy exports to the US causing rolling blackouts everywhere.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#14

Post by bioinformatics » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:16 PM UTC

roywiggins wrote: post #4

mikewarot wrote: post #2

Solar powered engines have been around since Mouchot had the first models working in Tours in 1865. The fact is renewable energy was always a choice, just not the cheapest in the short run. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustin_Mouchot

Wind power is centuries older than fossil fuel engines, but actually using it to do the sort of things we expect from power generation takes some doing.

Yes, solar is even older, with plants and other organisms on the forefront of energy production and development. It is kind of an untapped source of renewable energy.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#15

Post by dariusj18 » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:16 PM UTC

bregma wrote: post #12

The article says the world relies on fossil fuel for energy because it's cheaper. That's true. It doesn't mention that the world relies on it because it's reliable. It doesn't disappear for 6 months of the year, or stop producing for 3 out of 5 days or during peak demand periods. Make renewables cheaper and more reliable and they will replace fossil fuels in a snap. Cheaper is not enough if it doesn't do the job.

That's still cheaper. No need to create battery farms that can hold power for half a year.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#16

Post by BurningFrog » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:16 PM UTC

bregma wrote: post #12

The article says the world relies on fossil fuel for energy because it's cheaper. That's true. It doesn't mention that the world relies on it because it's reliable. It doesn't disappear for 6 months of the year, or stop producing for 3 out of 5 days or during peak demand periods. Make renewables cheaper and more reliable and they will replace fossil fuels in a snap. Cheaper is not enough if it doesn't do the job.

It does mention this briefly in the Batteries and electricity storage follow learning curves too section.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#17

Post by pan69 » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:17 PM UTC

simongr3dal wrote: post #9

the_economist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's still the problem of what to do between 4pm and 8 am on a day without wind, which means we won't be able to shut down too many power plants until cheap energy storage exists.

Global energy grid?

So that North Americas energy can come from China during the night?

The sun is always shining somewhere but this does doesn't sound feasible simply due to geo-political and infrastructure reasons.

Have any serious plans been put forward for this idea?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#18

Post by jellicle » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:17 PM UTC

HighlandSpring wrote: post #8

albertop wrote: post #5

Too bad that low cost is invisible for the consumers. California has one of the most, if not the most, expensive electricity in spite of years of investment in renewables.

Why is this? Is there no competition?

California deregulated electricity and in the absence of regulations, electricity providers discovered that they could collude in reducing capacity until prices went nice and high, and make continuous windfall profits from then forward.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#19

Post by bregma » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:17 PM UTC

simongr3dal wrote: post #9

the_economist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's still the problem of what to do between 4pm and 8 am on a day without wind, which means we won't be able to shut down too many power plants until cheap energy storage exists.

Global energy grid?

Running a power cable across the Pacific is going to be rife with expensive engineering problems, but sure, you could send electrons from Three Gorges to Google at some cost. I wouldn't call it cheaper, though.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#20

Post by marshray » Wed, Dec 02, 2020, 9:18 PM UTC

> Fossil fuels dominate the global power supply because until very recently electricity from fossil fuels was far cheaper than electricity from renewables. This has dramatically changed within the last decade. In most places in the world power from new renewables is now cheaper than power from new fossil fuels.

This is the thing our great-grandkids will ask us about. ("were you alive back when?")

Millenia from now, historians will not talk so much about the commercialization of electric power. They will divide time between the "pre-industrial" and "post-solar" eras, because that's what will be visible in the fossil layers.