Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping • Hacker News Board

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#111

Post by landryraccoon » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:00 PM UTC

est31 wrote: post #16

rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

Authoritarianism has been tried out around the globe in the 20th century multiple times, but each attempt failed. In fact, moth western nations were kingdoms at the start of the 20th century, and WW1 and WW2 turned most of them into republics.

If you look at the past century, democracies have been more successful, but if you look at the past millennium, dictatorships have done just fine.

The fact that Democracy has had a really good run for the past 100 years is nowhere near a guarantee that Authoritarianism won't rise again for the next 100.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#112

Post by tshaddox » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

coliveira wrote: post #105

enaaem wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not self sufficient in its food and energy needs. If China closes, there is going to be a famine and its industry will completely halt.

This just shows that China will NOT close. It is not a weakness for a country that wants to do commerce with the rest of the world.

What's your point? The only reason to point what would happen if China did close would be to show that they have leverage over the rest of the world. But if they can't or won't close, and everyone knows it, then they don't have leverage.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#113

Post by coliveira » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

China had been the most advanced country for centuries, having lost this position during the capitalist advances in the West. This should be welcome as it returns China to its traditional position as an advanced civilization.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#114

Post by coliveira » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:03 PM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #112

coliveira wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This just shows that China will NOT close. It is not a weakness for a country that wants to do commerce with the rest of the world.

What's your point? The only reason to point what would happen if China did close would be to show that they have leverage over the rest of the world. But if they can't or won't close, and everyone knows it, then they don't have leverage.

Their leverage is exactly to continue doing commerce. They don't have any intention of stopping this.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#115

Post by philipkglass » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:04 PM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #6

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism. What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?

I found this NSCAI presentation "Chinese Tech Landscape Overview" extremely interesting:

https://epic.org/foia/epic-v-ai-commission/EPIC-19-09-11-NSC...

It's from May 2019 but was obtained under FOIA more recently. It was submitted here at HN a couple of months ago, but under the baity title "NSCAI Eric Schmidt says Mass Surveillance killer tool/opportunity" so it missed broad discussion. Surveillance is only a small part of the document.

It also addresses:

- China's homegrown digital innovators

- China's dependence on imported semiconductors

- AI in transportation and medicine

- Banking and payment systems

- The future global manufacturing landscape

- The future of global development and governance

Among other topics.

It was the most riveting slide deck that I can recall reading.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#116

Post by DevX101 » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:04 PM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #6

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism. What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?

On Chinese history: The Search for Modern China by Spence (1990)

On China's history told through several biographies: The Search for Modern China by Schell and Delury

On modern China and it's ambitions, from Xi himself (these are speeches so there will be propaganda): Xi Jinping: The Governance of China Volume 1

On tech in China: AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World by Kai-Fu Lee

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#117

Post by coredog64 » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #47

RestlessMind wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

> In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you think China can match that alliance? Project population forward another 50 years. China will have Nigeria along with a few other African power houses, which at some point will probably comprise at least 40% of the world's population. I don't think the US can count on India in the same way that it c…

Unless China stops antagonizing India, I think there will at least be a conditional alliance between the US and India. We may also see slight shifts as Indian-Americans become eligible for US political office.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#118

Post by nilkn » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #69

Robotbeat wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost any argument attempting to invoke intrinsic intelligence (as an explanation for some geopolitical phenomenon) is horsehocky. But even if you buy that, the West (particularly the Us) can game that by accepting “High skilled” immigrants from the entire world rather than just relying on just a fraction of the human population. A distillation of ambitious people from every nation on Earth. I personally doubt very…

I think it'd be horsehockey if I were claiming that the Chinese or white people or Americans or whoever is intrinsically more intelligent or "culturally" hard-working or whatever. That's bullshit. I can understand the gut reaction to any mention of IQ since it is a common trope among racists on the internet. But my claim is not that: it is about the pretty clear concentration of inherited wealth in the US, compared t…

China's parliament has ~100 billionaires, and the concentration of wealth is even more extreme than that when you count those with a net worth exceeding, say, $100 million instead.

The difference between those at the top in China and those at the top in the US is not one of wealth concentration or inheritance or intelligence. The difference is access to raw power, national unity, and a massive foundational population. The Chinese government operates very differently from the US government and can move initiatives forward dramatically faster and at lower cost by essentially bulldozing through what would be vast legal and regulatory webs in the US involving dozens or hundreds of independent parties with various ownership stakes or legal claims that have to be balanced and negotiated against.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#119

Post by statquontrarian » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:06 PM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #106

statquontrarian wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm fully expecting plenty of whataboutism and false equivalencies in response to this comment and others making a similar point. Please don't poison the well. If you believe I've made such an argument, please politely point that out about a specific statement and I'll try to understand my biases and correct it. > do you really believe the there's no meaningful difference between China's vision for the future and t…

> The U.S. imprisons millions of people for petty drug crimes and kills millions of people in imperial wars. Is that so different than the treatment of the Uigers, Taiwanese, or those in Hong Kong? Yes, because in the US, we can actually have a conversation about changing those policies. In China, they can't.

Although there are counter-examples of Snowden, Assange, and others, I do generally agree with you that there are fewer political crimes in the U.S.; however, words are cheap, it's actions that matter. My point is about the results: the government continues to grow in depth and breadth. So, yes, if you're on the socialist end of the spectrum, you may feel very free to accomplish your goals. Those on the other end do not.

As an example, how did all of our free speech help in stopping the war in Iraq based on a lie about WMDs that killed millions of people? Is anyone even arguing that China has killed millions of Uyghurs?

To be clear, I think both sides are wrong. I'm just saying they're not qualitatively different by a magnitude.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#120

Post by zepto » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:06 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #96

smallnamespace wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This problem with this argument is that it can be flipped on its head to justify an aristocracy: the wealthy today are the ‘best’ and they will pass on their genes, successful values, and educational strategies to their children.

> it can be flipped on its head to justify an aristocracy: the wealthy today are the ‘best’ and they will pass on their genes, successful values, and educational strategies to their children. I disagree, I don't think this argument can be flipped on its head: The point is that it's pretty clear that the wealthy today are not the best and that meritocratic approaches are much more effective than crossing your fingers…

Is wealth uncorrelated with intelligence though?

You write as though that is obvious, but it seems like most new billionaires we hear about on HN etc, are pretty intelligent.

It’s obvious that there are a lot of intelligent people who do not become wealthy, but that’s because becoming wealthy requires not just intelligence, but being in the right place at the right time at the right age. I.e. it requires the right kinds of opportunity.