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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#61

Post by statquontrarian »

whimsicalism wrote: post #32
statquontrarian wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly leadership isn't sufficient. Central planning leadership under Mao led to poor results. Deng Xiaoping's reformation was to reduce centralized leadership. Nor is central planning leadership necessary. The early United States overtook Great Britain as the largest economy with minimal central planning leadership.

Central planning is not sufficient, but your comment doesn't show that it is not necessary. Markets are fundamentally pretty different from when the US overtook GB as largest economy.

I've provided historical evidence, but you've just asserted something without evidence. A mercantilist in the 1700s could have made the same argument as you, and they would have been wrong.

This is why political philosophy is important. The United States was largely an experiment in political philosophy and it succeeded... temporarily.

Unfortunately, given that the modern world is largely run by either state-managed socialism or state-managed capitalism (neo-mercantilism), there will be no evidence to evaluate your hypothesis on Earth unless there is a mass depopulation (let's hope not).

In my opinion, we will only have new political experimentation and innovation after we become a multi-planetary species. Political experimentation on Earth is too risky.

Until then, pay your taxes to appease the increasingly dystopian and insatiable "leaders".

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#62

Post by NonEUCitizen »

novok wrote: post #40
lobotryas wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countries that want money. When you ally with China you get fat stacks for infrastructure and other development projects that those nations (Africa, SEA, Eastern Europe) simply can’t afford on their own. Now you owe China favor so you will do as they ask when they come to collect.

What prevents countries from saying thanks china, we aren't going to pay and then allying with the rest of the west, or playing back and forth to negotiate ever better deals? The problem with infrastructure investment is it's hard to move.

Most of those countries remember being conquered and looted by the west. They're not going to just ally with the west -- they'll play both sides (as they should) to get the best deal from China and from the West.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#63

Post by est31 »

novok wrote: post #40
lobotryas wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Countries that want money. When you ally with China you get fat stacks for infrastructure and other development projects that those nations (Africa, SEA, Eastern Europe) simply can’t afford on their own. Now you owe China favor so you will do as they ask when they come to collect.

What prevents countries from saying thanks china, we aren't going to pay and then allying with the rest of the west, or playing back and forth to negotiate ever better deals? The problem with infrastructure investment is it's hard to move.

1. The infrastructure is often not just built, but also operated by chinese companies. So the chinese have direct operational control through their expats.

2. If you as diplomat even think about suggesting that Taiwan is its own nation, China will give an extremely offended reply. Same will probably happen if you try to negotiate. Either their terms, or you are an enemy. No meeting of equal partners.

3. China has large power over these nations by trading with them. This power will likely increase the more of their infrastructure is ran by China.

4. Eventually China will develop better tools to project power. I don't know what the Chinese analog of the CIA is, but likely they are working on it. Furthermore, recently Xi has opened the first military base outside of the Chinese mainland. If a nation's government defaults on its loans, China will just install a new government. This has little precedent because the change is so recent, but it's not unheard of in the general history of mankind.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#64

Post by ardy42 »

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies.

I'm not sure how well "asking" will work. IIRC, they transitioned rapidly from a two-child policy to a "however many you want" policy because not enough Chinese families chose to have another kid.

Anecdotally, it's extremely expensive to have a kid in China because the culture is so cut-throat competitive and rankings-obsessed. If you don't provide your kid with a lot of (expensive) extra educational opportunities, he could fall behind. On the other hand, Chinese culture (compared to Western culture) appears to be much more comfortable with parents playing favorites with their children, but I'm not sure how much that's carried through to the one child generation.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#65

Post by Robotbeat »

whimsicalism wrote: post #37
Robotbeat wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

Almost any argument attempting to invoke intrinsic intelligence (as an explanation for some geopolitical phenomenon) is horsehocky. But even if you buy that, the West (particularly the Us) can game that by accepting “High skilled” immigrants from the entire world rather than just relying on just a fraction of the human population. A distillation of ambitious people from every nation on Earth.

I personally doubt very much how genetically hereditary this is. So you have to maintain a high number of first or second generation immigrants to keep the effect going.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#66

Post by throw51319 »

malandrew wrote: post #8
rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

> Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. This is such a big reason. We no longer identify under a single identity. In America, that would be identifying as an American. In Europe, people still don't really identify as being European before they identify as English, French, German, etc. Between both America and Europe, we no longer identify with being Western. The fact that we now increasingly id…

Yup, and you could say that's the strength of a well-lead homogenous country.

That's why although i'm more left-leaning, the constant focus of the left on subgroups being wronged is laughable and such a distraction from the reality of the world. China and their technological superiority and increasing economic sphere doesn't care.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#67

Post by whimsicalism »

statquontrarian wrote: post #61
whimsicalism wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Central planning is not sufficient, but your comment doesn't show that it is not necessary. Markets are fundamentally pretty different from when the US overtook GB as largest economy.

I've provided historical evidence, but you've just asserted something without evidence. A mercantilist in the 1700s could have made the same argument as you, and they would have been wrong. This is why political philosophy is important. The United States was largely an experiment in political philosophy and it succeeded... temporarily. Unfortunately, given that the modern world is largely run by either state-managed…

Your characterization of the US as "centrally planned" seems incongruent enough with my starting assumptions that it's probably not worthwhile to have a conversation.

There's no private property without "central planning" (as you characterize it) of some form.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#68

Post by GradientAssent »

statquontrarian wrote: post #42
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

Why care who "wins" or who's "bigger"? Our goal should be the greatest wealth for the most people for the whole Earth. This is accomplished with innovation and peaceful trade. One "side" discovers a new technology and the whole world can benefit. The primary driver of innovation is a competitive market in which individuals innovate through the pursuit of self-interest. The 20th century was a large experiment finalizi…

One reason to care which is bigger is the effect they each will have on the norms of governance around the world. Superpowers tend to nudge the rest of the world's governments to be more like them (see Britain and the US over the last 300 years). Do you want the rest of the world to be more like China or more like the West?

China has shown the world what it considers to be acceptable norms of governance: unrepentant, ongoing genocide against the Uigers, snuffing out liberal democracy in Hong Kong, and denying the sovereignty of a liberal neighbor in Taiwan.

I'm fully expecting plenty of whataboutism and false equivalencies in response to this comment and others making a similar point.

Believe me, I'm disappointed in the US and the rest of the West's recent slide away from liberal values, and I hope we can start doing better soon, but I encourage onlookers to ask themselves: do you really believe the there's no meaningful difference between China's vision for the future and the West's? No difference between the future each will create for you?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#69

Post by whimsicalism »

Robotbeat wrote: post #65
whimsicalism wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

Almost any argument attempting to invoke intrinsic intelligence (as an explanation for some geopolitical phenomenon) is horsehocky. But even if you buy that, the West (particularly the Us) can game that by accepting “High skilled” immigrants from the entire world rather than just relying on just a fraction of the human population. A distillation of ambitious people from every nation on Earth. I personally doubt very…

I think it'd be horsehockey if I were claiming that the Chinese or white people or Americans or whoever is intrinsically more intelligent or "culturally" hard-working or whatever. That's bullshit. I can understand the gut reaction to any mention of IQ since it is a common trope among racists on the internet.

But my claim is not that: it is about the pretty clear concentration of inherited wealth in the US, compared to the intensive testing system used in China.

Your immigration solution would fix the intelligence of our workforce (skeptical that's a huge problem to start with), but do nothing to resolve the distributional problems in our model.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#70

Post by roenxi »

simonh wrote: post #12
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

> They have been struggling for almost a decade to get even one refurbished Russian aircraft carrier operational.

They launched their first domestic carrier last year, actually. Evidence is they are starting to get more serious about their navy. 3 more under construction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_progr...

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