Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
1–10 of 248 posts
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#2So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true?
Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies.
Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just as easily form alliances.
Others say that the West will build factories in India, Vietnam, Mexico, and Africa and stop single-sourcing the supply chain. China's also playing that game with their One Belt initiative.
The West has bountiful resources. Oil, minerals. So does China.
The West has a huge military and space program. So does China.
The West has high-paying tech jobs because of its lead in tech, but China is catching up and has more people graduating into the field. This could drive dominance (and salaries) down.
China keeps reporting growth. Others say don't trust the numbers. At the same time, look at what's happening to Western economies and national debt. Is China pulling the same levers, or are they unscathed? What, if anything, can the West do to match that growth? Or is it impossible?
What's going to happen? What's the 20 to 30 year outlook?
Really hoping for some good analysis.
(note: this story was "flagged" and I was unable to reply, but I "vouched" for it because I really value conversation and want informed input to help shape my view. Maybe I was wrong to do so, and if Dang or the mods disapprove, I'm sorry. My opinion on this whole matter is constantly in flux, and I'd really like good sources of information so I can be up to date and well informed. It feels like one of the most important topics of our generation.)
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#3The title is a reference to Dream of the Red Chamber, one of the greatest novels ever written.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#4So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…
The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way.
China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable.
Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#5So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…
My take is that China will eventually surpass the United States in terms of GDP but the USA will continue to lead in terms of per-capita.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#6So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…
It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism.
What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#7Under XJ, China is declining. One of the big reasons for China's meteoric rise was that stupid laws weren't being enforced properly or at all, and free speech was on the rise which in turn led to more creativity and economic freedom. Under that old reality, I was worried that China would inevitably surpass the West, but Zhou Enlai & Deng Xiaoping's golden egg laying goose is dead now in exchange for more centralized power. China's destiny is now to become a giant Galapagos copy machine courtesy of the new emperor.
Who knows; maybe the new social credit system will prove me wrong?
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#8So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…
The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.
> Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way.
This is such a big reason. We no longer identify under a single identity. In America, that would be identifying as an American. In Europe, people still don't really identify as being European before they identify as English, French, German, etc.
Between both America and Europe, we no longer identify with being Western.
The fact that we now increasingly identify with some subgroup, means many of us focus on improving the success of the subgroup with which we align. That means that growing your piece of the pie means growing the size of the pie of your subgroup over growing the size of the pie for the larger group (European, American, Western, etc.)
In China, on the other hand, the focus is on growing the size of the pie for China. It's going to be hard to compete with this unless we adopt the same mindset.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#9So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…
The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.
>Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.
New supply chains are in fact underway, even before Trump's horseshit. There was a inkling of migrating manufacturing to India and its only been accelerated further.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#10I would like to see some analysis of what a nuclearized Japan, or Australia, would do. China has emerged as the single greatest threat to democracy, human rights, prosperity, and peace around the world. They can only do this because a foreign investment. If companies like Apple etc. did not make their products in China, Then perhaps I could see a future of China rising peacefully. Otherwise they are a grave in mortal threat to the world