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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#101

Post by coliveira »

simonh wrote: post #12
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

On technology, you're just replicating wrong ideas spread in the last 20 years. China has proven itself capable of developing innovative technology and science. They have the most advanced 5G tech and already working on 6G. They are leaders in green tech. They're behind on semiconductors, but they have chosen this a top priority and I see no reason for them to have their own silicon starting on next year.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#102

Post by statquontrarian »

whimsicalism wrote: post #67
statquontrarian wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've provided historical evidence, but you've just asserted something without evidence. A mercantilist in the 1700s could have made the same argument as you, and they would have been wrong. This is why political philosophy is important. The United States was largely an experiment in political philosophy and it succeeded... temporarily. Unfortunately, given that the modern world is largely run by either state-managed…

Your characterization of the US as "centrally planned" seems incongruent enough with my starting assumptions that it's probably not worthwhile to have a conversation. There's no private property without "central planning" (as you characterize it) of some form.

> it's probably not worthwhile to have a conversation.

Please don't combine further arguments (which suggest you want to continue the dialogue) with a poisoning of the well. I've enjoyed our mini-conversation so far; if you don't, that's fine, but there's no added value in this part of your sentence.

> Your characterization of the US as "centrally planned"

In my opinion, the key metrics of central planning are the size of government (e.g. % GDP) and volume of its regulation. The point at which these become excessively centrally planned is hard to define. In my opinion, they have been consistently growing over the past few hundred years in the U.S. and are about 50% and excessive, respectively. I doubt they will cease to stop growing until collapse or malaise.

> There's no private property without "central planning" (as you characterize it) of some form.

I did mention "minimal" central planning; however, again, you're making an assertion of political philosophy. I do not believe private property requires central planning. See: The Problem of Political Authority by Michael Huemer for example.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#103

Post by api »

est31 wrote: post #44
novok wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Porcelain isn't what runs the world. It's like citing how Italy has an expensive luxury good that they only know how to make there and therefore they are a top nation of the world, while they haven't been since the roman empire.

It's not, I've only used it as an example. China had been the world's leading economy for a long time. They spawned many innovations like guns or even paper money. They had a bad century but it's foolish to belittle them.

IMHO a lot of Westerners are lulled into overconfidence vs. China because of racism, even if that racism is implicit or subconscious. China can't equal America or Europe because China isn't white.

There are arguments against China's continued rise that are rooted in demographics, politics, and social issues, but the Chinese are definitely capable of doing what Americans and Europeans do if all else is equal.

Racism is nonsense, and like other forms of nonsense believing it makes you gullible and foolish.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#104

Post by landryraccoon »

Simulacra wrote: post #11
danaos wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My take is that China will eventually surpass the United States in terms of GDP but the USA will continue to lead in terms of per-capita.

Only if foreign companies keep investing. If there is another Wuhan virus, then as possible the world may step back tremendously from China

Hmm, really? To me it looks like a new pandemic every decade would crush the west and assure the dominance of Asian economies.

Just looking at how much better Asian countries have weathered the pandemic, it would seem that every pandemic would be a relative boon for Asia compared to the West.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#105

Post by coliveira »

enaaem wrote: post #76
zabardasth wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

China is not self sufficient in its food and energy needs. If China closes, there is going to be a famine and its industry will completely halt.

This just shows that China will NOT close. It is not a weakness for a country that wants to do commerce with the rest of the world.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#106

Post by pdonis »

statquontrarian wrote: post #83
GradientAssent wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One reason to care which is bigger is the effect they each will have on the norms of governance around the world. Superpowers tend to nudge the rest of the world's governments to be more like them (see Britain and the US over the last 300 years). Do you want the rest of the world to be more like China or more like the West? China has shown the world what it considers to be acceptable norms of governance: unrepentant,…

> I'm fully expecting plenty of whataboutism and false equivalencies in response to this comment and others making a similar point. Please don't poison the well. If you believe I've made such an argument, please politely point that out about a specific statement and I'll try to understand my biases and correct it. > do you really believe the there's no meaningful difference between China's vision for the future and t…

> The U.S. imprisons millions of people for petty drug crimes and kills millions of people in imperial wars. Is that so different than the treatment of the Uigers, Taiwanese, or those in Hong Kong?

Yes, because in the US, we can actually have a conversation about changing those policies. In China, they can't.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#107

Post by ardit33 »

perardi wrote: post #52
bigpumpkin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.China has 4 times the population of America, and 1/6 the per capita output. Take your pick on what you think the long term per capita output ratio will be and you'll easily reach a conclusion on the relative size of the two economies. 2. The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. However, managing the divergent interests of the members in the alliances won't be easy. 3. China does not have eno…

The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. I really hate to bring up the T factor…but I think this is more in doubt than it used to be, given the current administration. Taiwan will be the key trigger for a possible war. I cannot imagine the horror that would ensue if China tried to assert power over Taiwan. Just the potential of losing TSMC alone…

trump is on the way out.... but 'trumpism' will be around for a while, but still in the minority and eventually fade just like the Tea Party, or Occupy wall Street

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#108

Post by costcopizza »

zabardasth wrote: post #34
whimsicalism wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. I think you are in for a rude awakening.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

I think you'd be surprised how quickly the world would acclimate.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#109

Post by est31 »

tsjq wrote: post #80
est31 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China would be severely affected by such a measure as well. This is WTO's doing, and is a big reason why there has been no world war 3. It's easy to wage war if your economy is truly sovereign, but with a nation your economy is intertwined with, it's hard to wage with. Trump's anti-China policy, while it is sensible in many ways, could have the ill effect of enabling a major war in a few years.

Could you pls elaborate on the WTO -> no WW3 angle ?

Take something as simple as boots. In war, soldiers are usually doing a lot of walking and good boots prevent many injuries and improve effectivity of troops. So suddenly you decide to send millions of conscripts into war. Sadly you have outsourced the boots manufacturing industry to the country you are waging war with. Had the industry been in your country, you could have told them to retrofit their lines to manufacture your boots, but sadly all the knowledge, together with the population that is used to the repetitive nature of factory work is in a different country now.

Remember how much struggle there was distributing even simple things like masks and PPE during the COVID pandemic?

Of course you can solve the boots problem, but you'll have the same variant of problem for a lot of things. Solving all these problems all at once is an insurmountable task.

Even building a single Photolitography plant takes hundreds of millions of USD and years from start of planning to conclusion, with the involvement of a large number of companies from around the globe, each specialized to their own part of the process, and world leader in that part. So where will you manufacture your chips needed for your autonomous robot army?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#110

Post by coliveira »

simonh wrote: post #79
whimsicalism wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. I think you are in for a rude awakening.

I don’t think so, building effective scientific institutions is incredibly time consuming. You don’t just need a slew of fresh graduates, you need an established cadre of experienced researchers to teach them. Where does this older generation of experienced mentors come from? Where do the deep institutional values come from? It’s not at all like building a factory. Modern advanced scientific methods and technologies…

Just take a look at China: they're paying Chinese experts living abroad to move to China and opening their universities to students world wide.
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