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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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71–80 of 248 posts

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#71
China's plan is definitely to absorb countries into their growing economic sphere. Then they absorb countries into their network/techno-sphere by selling communication and surveillance equipment.

This will allow them to assist the leaders in power by swaying public opinion at a whim. Further consolidating control. This pushes out western companies and doesn't allow their capital to operate.

Eventually this "virus" will reach the main western countries and engulf them. The capitalist system will be turned against itself.

In the past, you couldn't automate the managing of perception and access like you can now with a "technosphere" of capabilities that increase by the year.

They exploit weaknesses like the "racial divide" to pit us against each other, to hasten this.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#72
post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

>NATO countries

A lot of eastern European countries have quite close ties with china. Even with countries like Germany and Italy I wouldn't be so sure.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#73
post #9
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

>Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams. New supply chains are in fact underway, even before Trump's horseshit. There was a inkling of migrating manufacturing to India and its only been accelerated further.

They began moving years ago because wages were increasing in China, same reason those jobs left the U.S. decades ago.

I'm tempted to say the process was accelerated in China, but then again the heyday of U.S. manufacturing was only 20-30 years, maybe 40-50 if you include 1920s appliances boom[1], as the shift to Japan was in full swing by the 1970s. China is at about the 30 year mark (1990-2020), so if we really wanted to take a long-term historical perspective none of the contemporary politics matters--industrialization dynamics are running their natural course and choosing our politicians based on how "tough" they are on China (regarding trade policy) is pointless.

[1] Though I don't know if the industry's share of the labor market was significant, the U.S. dominated the appliances industry in the 1920s, so much so that it significantly contributed to the Great Depression. Not only did it directly inflate investment markets, the unbalanced trade with Europe, exacerbated by the gold standard, caused monetary deflation in European economies, which contributed to labor problems (stagnant wages, increasing unemployment), which in turn ultimately crashed foreign demand for both American appliances and investments. At least that's what I remember from reading Lords of Finance.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#74

Under XJ, China is declining. One of the big reasons for China's meteoric rise was that stupid laws weren't being enforced properly or at all, and free speech was on the rise which in turn led to more creativity and economic freedom. Under that old reality, I was worried that China would inevitably surpass the West, but Zhou Enlai & Deng Xiaoping's golden egg laying goose is dead now in exchange for more centralized…

I'll humor and agree with this take given it can take greater than 7 years for macro effects to occur stemming from policies and choices that countries make. Example is the former One Child policy which took a long time for the effects to be seen. Another example is that pumping money into the economy doesn't have immediate effects. India had its own policies ( https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-30040790 ) tha…

The effects of the One Child policy has actually been pretty much as intended.

There are two hidden goals of the One Child policy that aren't communicated very often in the West.

The first is proletarianization. Indeed, almost 30% of Chinese people are peasants. This is not efficient. Only around 2-5% would be sufficient; therefore 20-23% of the productive potential is wasted for the same consumption. And so, creating a situation where it would be possible to shrink the size of the peasant class would allow for the productivity per capita to rise, thus allowing for better surpluses and better living conditions.

In this view, a demographic fall is not an actual issue, because there is already 20-23% of "dead-weight" that can be eliminated.

Secondly, the issue is of human capital. This is not so well-known, but the retirement age in China is extremely low. Indeed, the average retirement age is at 58 (!). This is done on purpose so that the younger generation may enter the job market faster and learn more, reducing unrest and permitting the investment in human capital. However, this comes at the cost of enforcing early retirement, which also makes for reduced efficiency.

The solution to both of these problems can be to simply reduce the population, this will allow for a sharp decline of the peasant class and for an increase in retirement age.

In this view, the demographic effects of the One Child Policy, while they might have been disastrous for a developed, urbanized economy, actually fits into the demographic and productive plans. It is thus an incorrect to call them an error, and there will likely not be an economic collapse in response.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#75

I would like to see some analysis of what a nuclearized Japan, or Australia, would do. China has emerged as the single greatest threat to democracy, human rights, prosperity, and peace around the world. They can only do this because a foreign investment. If companies like Apple etc. did not make their products in China, Then perhaps I could see a future of China rising peacefully. Otherwise they are a grave in mortal…

To note, Japan is in practice a one-party state. The LDP has only ever not been in power very briefly, and even then they conserved bureaucratic power.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. I think you are in for a rude awakening.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

China is not self sufficient in its food and energy needs. If China closes, there is going to be a famine and its industry will completely halt.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#77
post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

About the demographic collapse from the One Child policy, I'm going to volunteer an alternative analysis, since you've asked for it, copied from another of my comments:

The effects of the One Child policy has actually been pretty much as intended.

There are two hidden goals of the One Child policy that aren't communicated very often in the West.

The first is proletarianization. Indeed, almost 30% of Chinese people are peasants. This is not efficient. Only around 2-5% would be sufficient; therefore 20-23% of the productive potential is wasted for the same consumption. And so, creating a situation where it would be possible to shrink the size of the peasant class would allow for the productivity per capita to rise, thus allowing for better surpluses and better living conditions.

In this view, a demographic fall is not an actual issue, because there is already 20-23% of "dead-weight" that can be eliminated.

Secondly, the issue is of human capital. This is not so well-known, but the retirement age in China is extremely low. Indeed, the average retirement age is at 58 (!). This is done on purpose so that the younger generation may enter the job market faster and learn more, reducing unrest and permitting the investment in human capital. However, this comes at the cost of enforcing early retirement, which also makes for reduced efficiency.

The solution to both of these problems can be to simply reduce the population, this will allow for a sharp decline of the peasant class and for an increase in retirement age.

In this view, the demographic effects of the One Child Policy, while they might have been disastrous for a developed, urbanized economy, actually fits into the demographic and productive plans. It is thus an incorrect to call them an error, and there will likely not be an economic collapse in response.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost any argument attempting to invoke intrinsic intelligence (as an explanation for some geopolitical phenomenon) is horsehocky. But even if you buy that, the West (particularly the Us) can game that by accepting “High skilled” immigrants from the entire world rather than just relying on just a fraction of the human population. A distillation of ambitious people from every nation on Earth. I personally doubt very…

I think it'd be horsehockey if I were claiming that the Chinese or white people or Americans or whoever is intrinsically more intelligent or "culturally" hard-working or whatever. That's bullshit. I can understand the gut reaction to any mention of IQ since it is a common trope among racists on the internet. But my claim is not that: it is about the pretty clear concentration of inherited wealth in the US, compared t…

If your argument is that we are approaching an aristocratic, low-churn society with a bunch of favored failsons at the top, then that would make more sense than trying to frame it in terms of Intrinsic intelligence. But I don’t think your comparison is accurate. The Chinese Party leadership and bureaucratic apparatus is plenty nepotistic while America’s more private-market-oriented economy is now dominated by (1st or 2nd generation) immigrant-founded or run companies like Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla. Read: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1236343/son-also-ris...

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#79
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

> It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. I think you are in for a rude awakening.

I don’t think so, building effective scientific institutions is incredibly time consuming. You don’t just need a slew of fresh graduates, you need an established cadre of experienced researchers to teach them. Where does this older generation of experienced mentors come from? Where do the deep institutional values come from? It’s not at all like building a factory.

Modern advanced scientific methods and technologies are incredibly sophisticated and complex. In the 1940s you could churn out a dozen new aircraft carriers, squadrons of fighters for them and send them on their way. With modern electronic warfare, sensor, weaponry and avionics systems that’s just not possible, especially if you dont have three generations of experience in carrier operations to draw on. That’s why China is still struggling to get one vessel even partially operational. It’s all new Chinese aircraft, weapons, electronics and systems. They’re trying to jump from 1940 to 2020 in one leap.

I’m positing this not entirely from speculation, but from observation of how things have gone for them so far and why. They will get there, absolutely, but the cutting edge is an awful long way away from the basics. You have to go through making a crapload of mistakes and dead ends before you find the right paths. That’s the difference between following a known trail and discovering new ones un-trod by others.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#80
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

China would be severely affected by such a measure as well. This is WTO's doing, and is a big reason why there has been no world war 3. It's easy to wage war if your economy is truly sovereign, but with a nation your economy is intertwined with, it's hard to wage with. Trump's anti-China policy, while it is sensible in many ways, could have the ill effect of enabling a major war in a few years.

Could you pls elaborate on the WTO -> no WW3 angle ?
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