Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping • Hacker News Board

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#11

Post by Simulacra » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

danaos wrote: post #5

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

My take is that China will eventually surpass the United States in terms of GDP but the USA will continue to lead in terms of per-capita.

Only if foreign companies keep investing. If there is another Wuhan virus, then as possible the world may step back tremendously from China

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#12

Post by simonh » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population.

Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and military technology is far, far behind. They have been struggling for almost a decade to get even one refurbished Russian aircraft carrier operational. Their space launch and satellite technology is decades behind, as is their silicon chip tech.

China is almost caught up to the USA by itself in raw industrial and economic power, they're close to parity, but this is just muscle. On the technology front they are still copying the basic stuff. It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. They will do it though. It's just a matter of time. Then they will be a match for the west as a whole, not just the USA.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#13

Post by delfinom » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

danaos wrote: post #5

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

My take is that China will eventually surpass the United States in terms of GDP but the USA will continue to lead in terms of per-capita.

>but the USA will continue to lead in terms of per-capita

Which will be further and further ironic as the 1% will eventually become the 0.1%

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#14

Post by danso » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:52 PM UTC

delfinom wrote: post #9

rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

>Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams. New supply chains are in fact underway, even before Trump's horseshit. There was a inkling of migrating manufacturing to India and its only been accelerated further.

Apple started shifting its supply chain to Vietnam. Apparently as much as 30% of AirPods will be produced there:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-shifting-supply-chain-c...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/apple-airpods-being-built-in...

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#15

Post by kerng » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:52 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

This is pretty much a done deal - just look at China's trajectory of growth since 2000s.

The only way this would not happen, is some severe world wide trade embargos, which seems unrealistic.

Or if China tries to go to war with Taiwan or something like that, which would result in trade embargos probably.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#16

Post by est31 » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

rapsey wrote: post #4

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

Authoritarianism has been tried out around the globe in the 20th century multiple times, but each attempt failed. In fact, moth western nations were kingdoms at the start of the 20th century, and WW1 and WW2 turned most of them into republics.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#17

Post by statquontrarian » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:54 PM UTC

rapsey wrote: post #4

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

Clearly leadership isn't sufficient. Central planning leadership under Mao led to poor results. Deng Xiaoping's reformation was to reduce centralized leadership.

Nor is central planning leadership necessary. The early United States overtook Great Britain as the largest economy with minimal central planning leadership.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#18

Post by naringas » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:55 PM UTC

In my opinion how he handles his succession will be the key.

if he acts like a nepot and tries to keep the power within his lineage, that's a sure sign of a classic story of decreseaingly capable rulers.

I think that the capability of democractic systems to enforce a level of competence in the rulers are the real reason behind the West's success.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#19

Post by scarmig » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

Simulacra wrote: post #11

danaos wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My take is that China will eventually surpass the United States in terms of GDP but the USA will continue to lead in terms of per-capita.

Only if foreign companies keep investing. If there is another Wuhan virus, then as possible the world may step back tremendously from China

China is looking to move away from export focused growth and has been developing a rich domestic market.

More broadly, the world has been stepping back a bit from China anyway, because its labor costs have risen significantly compared to other potential manufacturing centers.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#20

Post by ffggvv » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

danaos wrote: post #5

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

My take is that China will eventually surpass the United States in terms of GDP but the USA will continue to lead in terms of per-capita.

yeah with more than 3x the population they only need 1/3 of the median gdp to surpass in overall gdp