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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#81

Post by PicassoCTs »

est31 wrote: post #39
zabardasth wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

China would be severely affected by such a measure as well. This is WTO's doing, and is a big reason why there has been no world war 3. It's easy to wage war if your economy is truly sovereign, but with a nation your economy is intertwined with, it's hard to wage with. Trump's anti-China policy, while it is sensible in many ways, could have the ill effect of enabling a major war in a few years.

This argument reminds me of the pre WW1 pro-bismark arguments for entangled, complex alliance systems, because they would make "war unlikely"..

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#82

Post by count »

lobotryas wrote: post #30
tehjoker wrote: post #25

Y'all need to stop seeing other countries through the lens of existential competition before it causes cold or hot wars and start cooperating internationally.

You need a little more realpolitik in your life. Nations are absolutely competing with each other because we live in a world of limited resources. Recognizing this fact and wanting your nation to come out on top are very normal.

Normal and necessary are different.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#83

Post by statquontrarian »

GradientAssent wrote: post #68
statquontrarian wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why care who "wins" or who's "bigger"? Our goal should be the greatest wealth for the most people for the whole Earth. This is accomplished with innovation and peaceful trade. One "side" discovers a new technology and the whole world can benefit. The primary driver of innovation is a competitive market in which individuals innovate through the pursuit of self-interest. The 20th century was a large experiment finalizi…

One reason to care which is bigger is the effect they each will have on the norms of governance around the world. Superpowers tend to nudge the rest of the world's governments to be more like them (see Britain and the US over the last 300 years). Do you want the rest of the world to be more like China or more like the West? China has shown the world what it considers to be acceptable norms of governance: unrepentant,…

> I'm fully expecting plenty of whataboutism and false equivalencies in response to this comment and others making a similar point.

Please don't poison the well. If you believe I've made such an argument, please politely point that out about a specific statement and I'll try to understand my biases and correct it.

> do you really believe the there's no meaningful difference between China's vision for the future and the West's?

If we were comparing to Mao, Stalin, or Hitler, then, yes; but, modern states, no.

The U.S. imprisons millions of people for petty drug crimes and kills millions of people in imperial wars. Is that so different than the treatment of the Uigers, Taiwanese, or those in Hong Kong?

The social credit system and Great Firewall are being implemented through different means: social ostracism and social media oligopolies. I've personally experienced it.

> No difference between the future each will create for you?

I'm actually generally optimistic. If we take the evidence of the past few hundred years, we are likely to innovate and grow despite such excessive governance. It's the innovators that will make my future better. As far as the government goes, the practical difference seems minimal: I will meticulously pay my taxes and follow the laws so as not to receive the glare of either of the Saurons.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#84

Post by tehjoker »

lobotryas wrote: post #30
tehjoker wrote: post #25

Y'all need to stop seeing other countries through the lens of existential competition before it causes cold or hot wars and start cooperating internationally.

You need a little more realpolitik in your life. Nations are absolutely competing with each other because we live in a world of limited resources. Recognizing this fact and wanting your nation to come out on top are very normal.

I am quite familiar with realpolitik, the American post-war perspective and how the idea of international cooperation was undercut and destroyed by our national bourgeoisie. The UN system was put in place for America to exert its post-war dominance. China is a complicated nation. It is constructing a parallel system to the IMF/World Bank that under-girds US hegemony. It also controls a huge fraction of world manufacturing due to the laziness and greed of the business community. However, because it is not a pure capitalist country, it doesn't have the same imperial market imperatives that western countries certainly have.

If we don't try to build a better future, we will realpolitik ourselves into a dystopian one.

Also, nations are fake creations of the elites. The working class is international in scope and we have no quarrel with one another.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#85

Post by ardit33 »

throw51319 wrote: post #60
puranjay wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism. What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?

Seriously. There are so many right wing that think they are a paper tiger, and there's so many left CCP apologists that cloud the discussion in their own way. The West needs a completely unbiased body to release a report to the world about where stuff stands. Nobody wants a conflict. We realize our systems are like two huge tectonic plates about to grind against each other... but let's fix it

China looks like Japan in the 20s and 30s. Rapidly developing country, with territorial ambitions around the seas /islands close to the coast, and a almost predatory commercial way of doing business, and a almost nazi like squashing of minorities.

History doesn't exactly repeats itself, but it certainly rhythms...

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#86

Post by whimsicalism »

Robotbeat wrote: post #78
whimsicalism wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it'd be horsehockey if I were claiming that the Chinese or white people or Americans or whoever is intrinsically more intelligent or "culturally" hard-working or whatever. That's bullshit. I can understand the gut reaction to any mention of IQ since it is a common trope among racists on the internet. But my claim is not that: it is about the pretty clear concentration of inherited wealth in the US, compared t…

If your argument is that we are approaching an aristocratic, low-churn society with a bunch of favored failsons at the top, then that would make more sense than trying to frame it in terms of Intrinsic intelligence. But I don’t think your comparison is accurate. The Chinese Party leadership and bureaucratic apparatus is plenty nepotistic while America’s more private-market-oriented economy is now dominated by (1st or…

> we are approaching an aristocratic, low-churn society with a bunch of favored failsons at the top, then that would make more sense than trying to frame it in terms of Intrinsic intelligence.

Uh, I'm not sure exactly what you're disagreeing with. I think intelligence is a thing, I think tests can probably reflect it at least a bit, and I think the fact that wealth is not really correlated with it means that there are probably a lot of dummies making capital allocation decisions.

> immigrant-founded or run companies like Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla

I'm talking about ownership and capital allocation, so the management of any particular firm is somewhat irrelevant. The immigrant founders of Google, for instance, only hold 14% stake in Alphabet. Much of the ownership is by these "favored failsons" as you put it, even if they aren't the managers. That's not even getting into the fact that the vast-majority of America's economy is not these popular-to-talk-about tech companies or that Google's have to run-the-gambit of getting green-lighted by "failsons" just to have a chance of being funded.

We could have a whole separate conversation about the effectiveness of China's bureaucracy, but all I'll say is that - even if they have the same problems, ours have had more time to solidify, and China's wealth Gini coefficient is smaller than ours, so the problems would be less magnified.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#87

Post by smallnamespace »

whimsicalism wrote: post #37
Robotbeat wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

This problem with this argument is that it can be flipped on its head to justify an aristocracy: the wealthy today are the ‘best’ and they will pass on their genes, successful values, and educational strategies to their children.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#88

Post by sudosysgen »

simonh wrote: post #12
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

China is simply not behind in military technology. Neither are they "decades behind" in lithography, nor in launch, nor in satellites.

Their first reusable rocket is due for a test launch in a few months, their second domestic carrier is in construction, and in hypersonics they are, by the DoD's own admission, well ahead.

They have a fully domestic rocket online with a launch reliability over 94%, and their launch cost is only barely higher than that of the Falcon 9, at around 70 million dollars vs 50 million. They are also building a super-heavy, 140 000 kg LEO rocket.

In silicon tech, they have a 14nm fab online, which is hardly "decades behind".

In sat tech, they have pretty much all they could ask for.

I don't really get this viewpoint. China doesn't really advertise their capabilities, but it's clear that they aren't far behind in more than a few crucial sectors, and clearly ahead in others. At this point they are near competitors of the west.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#89

Post by coupdejarnac »

puranjay wrote: post #6
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism. What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?

The Axios Sinocism email list.

Edit: this whole thread is insane. Anyways, Sinocism is run by people who have spent significant time in China. It conglomerates Chinese, Western, and Asian news sources and provides balanced commentary.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#90

Post by simonh »

est31 wrote: post #35
simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

Good luck building a phone outside of China. https://www.diamandis.com/blog/shenzhen-global-hardware-capi... Huawei had basically cornered the 5G technology, getting all competitors out of the market, but then Trump ended it. China is buying strategically important technology companies from around the globe, like Kuka for example, and then moves the knowledge into their country. If this trend continues, eventually we…

No Samsung phones are built in China, most of them are now manufactured in Vietnam.
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