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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#741

Post by _iyig »

mc32 wrote: post #382
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability. A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

>A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers.

This has been tried for many years with little result. People in my social circles have grown fed-up and tired with the U.S. political system, especially those who supported Bernie Sanders in 2016 only to watch entrenched power-brokers deny him the candidacy. Some allege similar interference in 2020 (see podcast with former Bernie staffers):

https://soundcloud.com/seeking-derangements/sd7-the-bernie-p...

>unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

Millions of increasingly desperate and frustrated Americans may not be able to agree with you. People are never purely rational actors, and beat-down emotional people are among the least rational. The LA Riot's immediate outcome was arguably worse than its proximate cause, but nevertheless people rioted.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#742

Post by mixmastamyk »

lukker wrote: post #223
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

There is a good free e-book that can shed a bit of light on the mechanics of why markets can rally when the real economy seems to be in deep recession. https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/ Basically when money printer goes brrr then prices of financial assets tend to go up. The unfair bit about this is that these kind of assets are mostly owned by the rich, which makes the wealth gap even bigger.

> when money printer goes brrr then prices of financial assets tend to go up

It takes a while to kick in, though while the numbers go up, the values don't.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#743

Post by alexilliamson »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #568
vasillevski wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this like it’s a good thing? This is reflective of an economic system that isn’t functioning well. All this points to is the fact that income is highly concentrated in the hands of a few, and that opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed. I’m sure that went right over your head when you proudly decided to trumpet that nugget of information. Alas, I’m sure I’m just shouting into a void of ignoranc…

I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic. > opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea. I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below…

The history of America is the wealthy allowing just enough blue collar folk to make it big, so that the bootstrap narrative keeps propogating. The "I did it, others can too" is the fuel that keeps the facade of social mobility alive and strong.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#744

Post by mcphage »

stcredzero wrote: post #728
mcphage wrote: post #711

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Losing your home, losing the ability to pay for healthcare, perhaps losing custody of your children or losing your already strained marriage -- these are all serious issues which may greatly impact the survival and health of many people. Absolutely. And nobody wants to be forced to pick between that, and the very real possibility of getting sick. But if the states just open up, that's the position that they will be…

Absolutely. And nobody wants to be forced to pick between that, and the very real possibility of getting sick For a lot of people, this is a choice they make every day, even predating the pandemic. It's an honest shame that people with your attitude weren't the ones running the protests, instead of people flying the confederate flag and wanting to get their hair done. It's an honest shame, that politics in 2020 is of…

> For a lot of people, this is a choice they make every day, even predating the pandemic.

It is, but I'm not sure where you're going with this—are you implying that the pandemic hasn't drastically affected that decision? Otherwise: what are you saying?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#745

Post by stcredzero »

Mc_Big_G wrote: post #730
stcredzero wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a good thing, when a republic is constructed so that a minority still has a voice. One might perceive them as the "wrong" minority today, in the current context. In the future, they might well be the "correct" minority. (That said, I think Sweden of all places in the west, have had the best, most sane reaction to the pandemic.)

What minority are you even talking about?

What minority are you even talking about

Any of them.

Some of them, I'm in. Some of them, I'll never be in. The principle is universal: A just society protects the minority. Any of them.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#746

Post by mixmastamyk »

silicon2401 wrote: post #416
alexpetralia wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes in fact the only thing you wouldn't want to hold is dollars; you'd want to hold things that will earn more dollars in the future (an inflation hedge), such as equities. Then you'd only care about FX rates (to the extent you are purchasing internationally), and I don't see any indication the FX futures market is moving against the dollar.

if holding onto dollars right now is bad, could you suggest what would be a good place to put cash?

Gold and assets that won't go to zero, essential companies and real estate. Just don't expect them to not get hit as well in the short term.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#747

Post by pc86 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #525
cgh wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> That's because Canada isn't particularly socialist Indeed! Just as those in the States are asking for policies that aren't socialist , but democratic socialism . There is a difference! No one is advocating for Venezuela, just the rest of the first world.

If you read up the comment thread from my reply, we're talking about socialism, not democratic socialism. So Canada is irrelevant as an example (which was my initial albeit snarky point).

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#748

Post by _iyig »

jessaustin wrote: post #671
mc32 wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability. A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. As Thucydides wrote, the tyranny that the Athenian empire imposed on others it finally imposed on itself. "Unrest" in Latin America is caused by USA's off-the-leash unsupervised services. Venezuela's government is taking better care of its citizens than our government is taking of us, in this current health emergency. This despite the crippling sanctions and attempte…

>Venezuela's government is taking better care of its citizens than our government is taking of us, in this current health emergency.

I've seen nothing to corroborate this.

>Don't believe the war media; I recommend The Grayzone.

Here's a video from last year of Grayzone founder Max Blumenthal cheerfully receiving honors from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who has ruled that country by violence and decree since 2015:

https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro/status/1156588153945427970

I do trust The Grayzone to have an anti-U.S. editorial position. I do not trust them to be objective.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#749

Post by proverbialbunny »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #657
ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're saying matches up with the reports I've been seeing. I think a lot of HN readers are simply unable to believe such a thing can occur; the recessions of the past thirty years were mild compared to what's happening right now. Personally, I'm absolutely terrified.

What bothers me more than anything else is the unpredictability of it all. We don't know how this thing will pan out. There is way too much conflicting data about it. Will it burn out and mutate into less lethal strains? Will we get it in the waves? Will it be a seasonal thing we have to live with? Will there be a cure or better, a vaccine? Or will it be like the common cold with no vaccine?. We don't know. And witho…

COVID thankfully is less likely to mutate than other types of viruses, so once COVID-19 is gone, it will most likely stay gone. However, gone here meaning world wide.

How much the world can safely open up businesses is directly correlated to testing. Eg, it's easy for schools to open up when they require testing every day for every student when they come in. On the other extreme, it's hard for schools to open up when there is no testing being done.

A second and even third wave is highly likely without proper testing. It will take longer for a vaccine to be created than we can shelter in place, unless we get very lucky.

The alternative is a country does not shelter in place, and it builds up herd immunity. A lot of people will die. It's not the ideal option.

At the end of the day it comes down to tests. The more we have the more the economy can open up.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#750

Post by incog_nit0 »

Theodores wrote: post #722
kilroy123 wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely agree with you, but... How about don't vote in leaders that only care about helping out their rich buddies then? The Scandinavian countries have moved to pay all payrolls to keep people paid during all this madness, instead of just bailing out large debt holders.

In the UK there is a lot of payroll being paid by central government, plus there are interest free loans for small businesses. This is very good on the surface, however, there is a large chunk of wealth going to the rentier class. The rentseekers were encouraged under successive Tory and New Labour governments with schemes such as 'buy to let'. Now they are the only truly protected sector of society. The rich get ric…

> The rentseekers were encouraged under successive Tory and New Labour governments with schemes such as 'buy to let'. Now they are the only truly protected sector of society. The rich get richer.

There's some truth to this, but I wouldn't say rentseekers are the only truly protected sector of society. My parents put their life savings into buying a block of flats in the 90s. They borrowed from every single person they knew and took out a mortgage against their own home and put most of their subsequent savings into paying off the mortgage sooner.

The last mortage payment is due end of this year and they were looking forward to leaving their full time jobs whilst maintaining their little property 'empire'.

So far this month they've had 3 tenants call asking for rent reductions, 1 totally unable to pay rent and another insisting on a 20% discount because their friend's landlords are offering the same.

Maintaining that block of 10 flats is no picnic. It means you're on call to unblock toilets on bank holidays or clean, paint, draft tenancy agreements and file paperwork on your evenings and weekends.

Of course - owning an appreciating asset means you're better off than someone who doesn't but you're not quite sitting pretty.

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