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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong. We are not forced to be inside because of the virus. It would have been totally possible to have this pandemic going on with zero lockdowns, which would have probably led to worse health effects, and less-bad economic effects. It's a pet peeve of mine when people claim that we must lock down or that the virus is forcing us to do this or that, as opposed to it being a political choice based on tradeoffs…

Sure, we can let a million folks in the USA die because we love our capitalism, but 80%+ of the USA disagrees with that false dichotomy.

I don't think that's true. The mindset I've consistently seen is that people do agree with the dichotomy, and are just willing to sacrifice the economy because they don't think it's very important. How many times has the line been trotted out that we can't sacrifice human lives for the sake of the economy?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#222

"Start of a recession"? We've been in a recession for a while now, and a global one too. The IMF and other such organizations have been saying it for over a month now. Why has the US been trying to deny it for so long?

Recession is a semi-technical term that is often defined as a fall in GDP for two successive quarters.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#223
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

There is a good free e-book that can shed a bit of light on the mechanics of why markets can rally when the real economy seems to be in deep recession.

https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/

Basically when money printer goes brrr then prices of financial assets tend to go up. The unfair bit about this is that these kind of assets are mostly owned by the rich, which makes the wealth gap even bigger.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#224
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I suspect the downvotes are due to a lack of critical engagement. Even the Holodomor link offers a litany of reasons that aren't just "socialism," and we've been interfering in Venezuela for decades, not limited to: harsh sanctions, coup attempts, cutting off access to foreign markets, blocking access to its own funds stored outside the country, and so on. In addition to all the hoarding of food and medicine inside the country. There's a lot going on, and "third world oil country with US-unfriendly foreign and domestic policy in a region dominated by US interference" certainly also hurts countries that don't have "socialism" to blame. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortages_in_Venezuela

Regarding US government incompetence in benefits: Not everywhere has distributing benefits been so inefficient (see: Denmark or Germany, among others). It's almost like a decades-long program of cutting funding and introducing tons of red tape undermines public confidence in social spending. I'm sure that's unintentional!

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#225
post #187

NB this is for the first quarter of 2020, which had hardly any impact from Covid-19 - lockdowns mostly happened late March and the start of April. So the second quarter will be a better reflection of the impact of shutdowns and changes in consumer behaviour/travel, but we won't see figures for that for a while. Almost more worrying, 20% of the value of the S&P 500 is now concentrated in the top 5 tech stocks, which a…

> NB this is for the first quarter of 2020, which had hardly any impact from Covid-19 Except the economy was impacted, since manufacturing in China was slowed during the first quarter.

I don't think US companies felt much pain, certainly it was nothing compared to being forced to shut for months, or having most of their customers forced to shut/stay at home.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#226
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

So, how is it that people employed in essential businesses have not become rich in this pandemic? After all they are in high, crucial demand and could/should command better wages than programmers at this time. Sure, some of those raises would increase the price of goods, but that would be offset by hefty UBI checks to everyone. How is it that people who endanger their lives working in supermarkets don't get raises, b…

Lack of strong unions is one contributing factor. Companies have all the power, and this situation is giving them even more power. No one dares risking losing their job in these conditions when so many others are already out of work and would take any paying job without complaint.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#227
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Yup when your job is gone and your finances are suffering and your loved ones are in pain, just remember who allowed this Disaster to happen

The Chinese government.

And also remember which party ignores/pretend it isn’t a threat.

Democrats.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is wrong. We are not forced to be inside because of the virus. It would have been totally possible to have this pandemic going on with zero lockdowns, which would have probably led to worse health effects, and less-bad economic effects. It's a pet peeve of mine when people claim that we must lock down or that the virus is forcing us to do this or that, as opposed to it being a political choice based on tradeoffs…

Sure, we can let a million folks in the USA die because we love our capitalism, but 80%+ of the USA disagrees with that false dichotomy.

First of all, that number is clearly exaggerated. No current evidence supports the claim that a million people in the USA dying of covid is remotely plausible.

Now to the substance of your argument: this has little to do with capitalism. If most people are not working for a long period of time, in any society, even a non-capitalist one, then that society will rapidly become dramatically materially poorer.

We make choices to improve material conditions at possibly increased health risks all the time. Longevity is not the only metric for overall quality of life.

I would happily accept some increased risk of my own death for the lockdown to be over. Correctly navigating the tradeoff requires figuring out how much increased risk of death is acceptable, not asserting that it’s zero.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#229
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you make up for the 2 months you decided not to eat out and cooked home instead? I live in Boston, and some of my favorite restaurants are already closed, and the huge liqueur store next to my house closed this week. It's not possible to make up for things like this, they're gonna be replaced by larger food chains once virus passes. But it's not true to say virus didn't hurt our economy permanently, of course,…

I never said businesses will come back from grave. But people will want to get out once this passes. I'm personally sick of staying at home, I am going to try to make better use of my time. Somebody will get that business anyway. I am also putting off repairing my car until after all this passes. Yes, car repair shops may be at loss now because I decided not to do business with them, but my car is still broken and I…

The issue with the broader economy is the number of professional organizations that are now doing layoffs, on a broad scale those jobs are slower to come back then the retail and service industry jobs that were initially lost. Those people won't be spending money as a result, and there will be further slowdown.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#230
What has happened over the past few decades has been with companies:

1) A shift to JIT stock control and resource management 2) Shift towards paying dividends over building up reserves for rainy days 3) Valuing of companies with more weight upon public perception and perceived prospects over tangible assets on the books.

With many other factors that all, whilst small, add up to a market with companies driven by a way of working that is more volatile towards any unknown changes as less prepared by design to handle any rainy days periods.

This is also not just a company thing, but a personal thing with the shift in mentality to buy now pay later over save now, buy later. Mostly driven by low interest rates, which have been kept low as a way to manage currency value as a way to manage inflation. That along with any crash saw people with high interest rates as much larger and quicker to drive an economic crash with debts. Though mostly, to drive consumer spending so GDP looks good and the perception helps that countries credit rating. Making them able to borrow more for even less. Consumers with no incentive to save, buy more, borrow more, everything looks nice.

But of course there is more to it than that, but the whole drive towards lower interest rates has over the decades bestowed a culture more included to think short-term and deal with the long-term later and enjoy the sun. This has permeated in many forms and creates what I would call a false economy.

So after the moore's law of interest rates started to hit a limit as they could not shrink any lower, they invented QE, which worked and helped avoid reality of things catching up with the markets for many a time. But then even that can only go so far, so the new tool - negative interest rates.

This of course, all tricks to help balance the books and keep the whole financial system rolling ahead without it taking a reality audit and adjusting down instead of being over valued due to perception of constant growth.

But with a big rainy day that is global, things in any market would take a hit, how much of that depends as many companies will die, but how many of them will be due to the way they operate and not the `market snap`(sorry Marvel, I'm using it) we are experiencing.

If anything, whilst many jobs will be lost, more attention to local sourcing will be given and that will create not only jobs, but more stable jobs. At least to until the fashion of outsourcing comes back and we end up with Detroit mark2.

Also be new opportunities/jobs - certainly be a boom for many internet companies. Also see alas another nail in many a high street and with that, things will change, how much of that does transpire is unsure for certain. But certainly see more things local produced instead of imported, with that production has been slowly clustering globally and in some area's has become centered. So insourcing may well become a word used more than outsourcing when it comes to production and materials resources.

About the only thing I do know for sure, even after this - people will use more soap than before.

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