U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#201

Post by vsareto » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:57 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #175

aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

There was some discussion of aspects of this yesterday and there have been a few articles. The general consensus is that kids who have good home environments and have at least some interest in learning will mostly do fine. Some may even do better than normal. But kids in poor home situations who were already barely scraping by--if that--will basically lose the year and everything that implies. In some areas, double-d…

To make matters even worse, the jobs those kids would get to offset a lack of schooling won't be available now.

I don't know if they'll be roaming the streets (the police in America are pretty unforgiving), but I can certainly say they will have it worse than ~2001 and ~2008 graduates.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#202

Post by slowmovintarget » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:57 PM UTC

SamBam wrote: post #101

JKCalhoun wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently So, down 10% from the previous bubble. > 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies Good point. Dow is also up almost as much though. > 3. The market is always very forward looking. I may be cynical, but I see perhaps 2 to 3 years to regain the jobs we are losing, to see the employment rate return to earlier levels. That's years of depressed s…

> So the market is looking to, what, 2025 or something? Sure. People are basically betting that stock prices are cheap right now, and if they hold onto them for a few years they'll be back to where they were. Look at the 2008 recession. If you bought then you'd be doing very well. They're basically betting that the worst has already been priced-in. In a sense, they're probably betting that we won't get a totally cala…

Partly because, for those who can, there's no where else to "save" money due to already depressed interest rates.

We're about to hit bedrock, I suspect.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#203

Post by res0nat0r » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:58 PM UTC

klmadfejno wrote: post #181

res0nat0r wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand their thinking because not working is causing a massive amount of collateral damage, but the virus doesn't care about any of that. If everyone goes back to normal too early, this all just starts over, and folks are forced to be inside even longer, there's just no way around it.

> If everyone goes back to normal too early, this all just starts over, and folks are forced to be inside even longer, there's just no way around it. This whole thing just starts over if we EVER go back to normal unless a vaccine is invented. Herd immunity is impossible to achieve during an effective lockdown. It's not like we're any closer to being able to safely resume activities than one month ago. A highly infect…

This is true. People need to realize this is a 2 year minimum thing we're just in the beginning of dealing with. Anything else is fantasy.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#204

Post by buboard » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:58 PM UTC

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

So, how is it that people employed in essential businesses have not become rich in this pandemic? After all they are in high, crucial demand and could/should command better wages than programmers at this time. Sure, some of those raises would increase the price of goods, but that would be offset by hefty UBI checks to everyone. How is it that people who endanger their lives working in supermarkets don't get raises, but developers (whose contribution to the pandemic was "lets make another surveillance toy") get to work from home and still get their full paychecks? I'm sure someone will find a great excuse why it's wrong to think that and some other economicky argument. But something feels wrong about it.

Hope better days for you man, but those other jobs in leisure sector will not recover for a long time unfortunately. Do you think that they can somehow use the itnernet to keep businesses alive?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#205

Post by bamboozled » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:58 PM UTC

bhupy wrote: post #131

milesskorpen wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google and Facebook definitely are not being helped right now. Advertising is drying up.

Alphabet just reported a 13% increase in revenue for Q1.

Q2 will be very different.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#206

Post by standardUser » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:58 PM UTC

metalliqaz wrote: post #73

onion2k wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People stopped buying stuff but rest assured, they will make up for it when they finally can. Apart from the people who were laid off, or spent their savings because they had no income, or lost their businesses because they couldn't pay their debts, or ... well, it's a long list. People who think the world is just on pause and everything will bounce back to normal in a few months need to look outside of their filter…

Also people who didn't lose their jobs but are now spooked and are going into save mode.

I'm still employed, but I have spent less money in April than any month of my adult life. Saving mode indeed.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#207

Post by ThrowawayR2 » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:59 PM UTC

RankingMember wrote: post #151

dudul wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

The essential motivation for people to want to feed their families/pay bills is completely logical, but it's important to keep in perspective that the virus doesn't care about any of these things. We don't need to look too far back in history to see that ending isolation in a pandemic too early can have huge consequences (much bigger than an economic slowdown/unemployment).

I am against ending the lockdown early as well and disagree in no uncertain terms with those who are trying to minimize the pandemic. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to start wondering whether the economic and political damage may ultimately outweigh the lives saved. If anyone thinks populism spawning extremists and getting them into public office was bad now, imagine the tsunami of public anger and populism that will occur caused by immense (even, dare I say it, pandemic) unemployment and poverty, which is where we're headed full steam. When things get tough, people shift into a "me first" mentality that is incompatible with the philosophies of many HNers.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#208

Post by ghaff » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:59 PM UTC

maram wrote: post #199

aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

> Missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. Which subject can they study at school that they cannot study at home?

There is very little that students can't study at home given at least some parental support. However, it's pretty clear that a significant number of students have basically given up on the school year.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#209

Post by esotericn » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:59 PM UTC

maram wrote: post #199

aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

> Missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. Which subject can they study at school that they cannot study at home?

Not being in bone-crushing poverty with parents that are unable to help them.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#210

Post by lisper » Wed, Apr 29, 2020, 2:59 PM UTC

AQuantized wrote: post #176

lisper wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you looked at the Fed's balance sheet lately? It is quite literally off the charts. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren... It is no harder to inflate the dollar than any other currency. Print enough of them, and the their price will go down. It's no different from any other commodity.

It's definitely much harder to inflate the dollar than any other currency. If there's massive demand for the dollar, that's a huge deflationary effect on the dollar, which counteracts the inflationary effect. In times of crisis, everyone wants to be in the global reserve currency.

That's true, but "much harder" != "impossible". If you print enough dollars, there will come a point at which it will stop being the world's reserve currency. The only way to find out where that point is is to actually cross it. That will be a very painful experiment to conduct. If we ever get to that point, the world will learn the meaning of the word "hysteresis".