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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#381

Post by _bxg1 »

mcphilip wrote: post #138
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to.

There is deep rot at the heart of the American system, and something is going to have to give. The economy has been broken for the lower 50% for a long time now. This course is unsustainable.

I try not to get explicitly political on here, but Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system. He is the only person on Capitol Hill with the motivation to make the real changes that desperately need making. Joe Biden will just pretend the problem doesn't exist for another four years. Trump, as a leader, is just an agent of chaos with no ideals and no plan. I can't totally blame people for taking a chance on that over the continued, slow march of rot.

I think we're going to start seeing escalating social unrest until something breaks. All we can hope for is that something breaks sooner rather than later, and that we get whatever new deal needs making before things get too bad.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#382

Post by mc32 »

mcphilip wrote: post #138
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability.

A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers.

Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#383

Post by MattGaiser »

fullshark wrote: post #364
MattGaiser wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars Retail like that is very underrepresented in the stock market, so those losses wouldn't be reflected.

Also they are competing for market share with companies on the stock exchange. The sad truth is a shutdown like this is terrible for small businesses that are going to die, but great for large corporations that can weather the short term pain.

Why I am bullish on restaurants. That space is going to have the greatest spread of that.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#384

Post by aaron_oxenrider »

abduhl wrote: post #214
balls187 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the flip-side, putting all businesses in this situation means most of us are in the same situation; and every market/industry needs to work together to get out of this crisis. If no one can pay their mortgage, loan holders HAVE to make exceptions. That shared spirit of sacrifice isn't a reason to institute lock down orders, but my opinion is that it will allow us to lesson the economic damage long term.

Why do they have to make exceptions? Absent a government mandate there is no requirement and, unfortunately, the mortgage is secured by the underlying property. I fully expect, and you should too, foreclosures to skyrocket and people to be on the street. The banking sector is not in the business of shares sacrifice and the US government isn’t in the business of letting the banks collapse. This lockdown will kill peop…

If you paid attention during the last recession while foreclosures did skyrocket, those people did not end up out on the street. Many found other places to live or just stayed in that house until someone forced them to leave. Some people stayed in a house without paying a mortgage for years.

If it goes that direction again I see even more people just staying without paying anything. The banks don't have the resources to force everyone out and no one wants to buy that many properties in a lot of areas.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#385

Post by scottLobster »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #267
scottLobster wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Best explanation I've found: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0 Can't post this enough these days. TLDR is that the stock market is forward looking. It goes up or down based on whether conditions are better or worse than EXPECTED. If reality is in line with expectations then nothing happens. If it's better than expected stocks go up, if it's worse than expected stocks go down. The current shitty economy has…

The last time the S&P price was at today's level, it was October 2019. The market is essentially saying that the forward-looking expectations of the companies in the S&P today are similar to what they were in October 2019. I'm not an expert here -- who knows, maybe they're right -- but I find that judgement very hard to take seriously.

I agree, but the bet seems to be (in so far as anyone can judge what the market is thinking) that the multi-trillion economic stimulus combined with other credit lines corporations are taking out will do their job on a macroeconomic scale despite anecdotal stories about it being inadequate for individuals. I don't think that's the case, but I don't have any data to say it's unreasonable.

Plus there is the expectation that once a vaccine is developed/distributed it'll be the roaring 2020s as everything recovers fully, which I largely agree with. So if you're looking at record profits less than 2 years out, makes for a pretty rosy outlook.

That of course is assuming there aren't any particularly economically devastating effects from the oil price wars/demand drop, educational lapses, hurricanes/wild fires on top of corona-virus leading to a renewed spike during evacuations, and any other manner of things that can go wrong. That's where I'm generally making the opposite bet, there's just too many unknowns and plausible disasters that can happen, and if even one of them comes true things get a lot worse quickly. But that's pure speculation/conservatism on my part.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#386

Post by ChrisRR »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month.

Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#387

Post by karatestomp »

0xffff2 wrote: post #371
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.

About half of households own no stock at all. It's a safe bet a good portion of the other half have little enough that "the market's up!" isn't very meaningful for them.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#388

Post by ChrisRR »

maram wrote: post #199
aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

> Missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. Which subject can they study at school that they cannot study at home?

Lets be honest. Many people just aren't cut out to teach many subjects, and a lot of people just didn't pass many high school subjects, let alone have a good enough understanding to teach them

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#390

Post by 0xffff2 »

OldHand2018 wrote: post #294
toomuchtodo wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP's niece takes on the liability as the owner (ie she hits someone and causes harm her insurance doesn't cover), but OP retains legal claim against the property, preventing someone else from obtaining it through a legal judgement or similar proceedings.

Right, if it gets taken away it gets given to me as the senior lien holder. For best legal protection, I should loan her money with some nominal interest rate. A distant family member did this on the house of one of their kids, and it saved them from losing it in a foreclosure. The other lender was so angry with them for refusing to release their lien; but they couldn't legally force them to do it.

So you're paying cash for the car? If there's no loan, who exactly is going to take it away?
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