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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#721

Post by three_seagrass »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #17
iambateman wrote: post #4

I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?

3 things: 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently, but skip the part about it still being down about 10% since the start of the year. 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google account for 20% of S&P market cap. Most of those companies have been helped by the pandemic, or at least not hurt nearly as bad as smaller companies. 3. The market…

4. Investors are driven by quarterly results. Q1 earnings are all being released right now by major companies, and since the pandemic only really hit in March, they're reporting pretty good results and investors are reacting as they always do.

This is despite the economic slow down as B2C companies losing 20-100% of their customers and B2B companies lose their B2C customers who no longer have income.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#722

Post by Theodores »

kilroy123 wrote: post #602
stcredzero wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

I completely agree with you, but... How about don't vote in leaders that only care about helping out their rich buddies then? The Scandinavian countries have moved to pay all payrolls to keep people paid during all this madness, instead of just bailing out large debt holders.

In the UK there is a lot of payroll being paid by central government, plus there are interest free loans for small businesses.

This is very good on the surface, however, there is a large chunk of wealth going to the rentier class. The rentseekers were encouraged under successive Tory and New Labour governments with schemes such as 'buy to let'. Now they are the only truly protected sector of society. The rich get richer.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#724

Post by gbear605 »

aphextron wrote: post #401
amyjess wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was in third grade, we spent half the second semester learning about different kinds of whales. This is material I forgot pretty much as soon as it was over. When I graduated high school, my mom and I went through all my old elementary school material to see what we'd like to keep for sentimental value and what we're okay with throwing out to make room in the garage, and we were just overwhelmed by the sheer m…

Conversely, when I was in 6th grade, I begged and pleaded with my parents to try a new distance learning pilot program our state was doing. They allowed me to do it for 7th grade, and the lack of oversight and discipline led to me being a complete year behind in mathematics when I went back to regular school for the 8th grade. I never recovered, and ended up dropping out 2 years later. Sure there is redundancy in ele…

The thing is, you can 100% learn the gap if some is missed. The problem comes when the gap isn't filled at all and then the prerequisites for future material aren't there. I don't think that will be the case with the current situation.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#725

Post by misiti3780 »

coldpie wrote: post #605
misiti3780 wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One piece of anecdotal evidence: I live in NYC but currently reside in rural upstate NY. We have very few cases up here and it's impossible to NOT socially distance because that the way of life up here. As of last week, Cuomo is applying the same rules in NYC to all of NY state, which is ridiculous. My family friend has a furniture factory up here that employs 220 people with a backlog of $2M+ pieces worth of furnitu…

I don't have an opinion one way or the other on your friend's situation. It definitely sucks, and you may well be right that it's unduly harmful to their situation. But don't underestimate this disease. Even upstate New York isn't immune, take a look at this interactive map[1]. Almost all counties in upstate New York are north of 50 confirmed cases per 100,000 people, and all of those are neighboring counties with hu…

My impression from living up here for a month or so is that most people are taking it seriously, though some are not. I do not think people are going to stay inside as soon as the spring weather arrives.

I do agree mistakes will be made, but i also think there there are leaders on both sides of the political aisle that should resign at this point for errors they have made.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#726

Post by parsnips »

standardUser wrote: post #626
parsnips wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AOC, Rashida Talib, Ilhan Omar. What do you think the Green New Deal is?

The Green New Deal is not a call for an end to market capitalism, nor is it a call for a centrally planned economy. Your point is utterly invalid.

Let's just look at one (expensive) idea proposed in the GND:

>Upgrading all existing buildings and building new ones so that they achieve maximum energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability.

How is a directive to upgrade all existing buildings, anything but central planning of an entire industry?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#727

Post by blankface »

chrisco255 wrote: post #584
at-fates-hands wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's because the top has looted the economy Can you explain how this happens? How does one "loot" one of the largest economies in the world?

Monetary policy and globalism. We've got an economy built on debt. We went from a production based economy 40 years ago to a consumption based one. We exported skills. We believed that a service-based economy was sustainable in the long run. We went off the gold standard and embraced an inflationary monetary policy that punished savers. Then we built a retirement system (including state pensions) dependent on yields,…

Thank God for this comment

The U.S. Dollar is backed by an ass whopping!

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#728

Post by stcredzero »

mcphage wrote: post #711
stcredzero wrote: post #667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were to listen, If you were to listen. I would hear that people don't want to be forced to choose between survival and health. Losing your home, losing the ability to pay for healthcare, perhaps losing custody of your children or losing your already strained marriage -- these are all serious issues which may greatly impact the survival and health of many people. One thing which tone-deafness is often a symptom o…

> Losing your home, losing the ability to pay for healthcare, perhaps losing custody of your children or losing your already strained marriage -- these are all serious issues which may greatly impact the survival and health of many people. Absolutely. And nobody wants to be forced to pick between that, and the very real possibility of getting sick. But if the states just open up, that's the position that they will be…

Absolutely. And nobody wants to be forced to pick between that, and the very real possibility of getting sick

For a lot of people, this is a choice they make every day, even predating the pandemic.

It's an honest shame that people with your attitude weren't the ones running the protests, instead of people flying the confederate flag and wanting to get their hair done.

It's an honest shame, that politics in 2020 is often about group stereotypes, not fundamental economic reality.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#729

Post by valachio »

mdszy wrote: post #350
jb775 wrote: post #270

Is it outrageous to say we need to end this quarantine right now? At this point, the cure is worse than the disease.

Literally killing people for the sake of "the economy" is a disgusting notion to even attempt to defend. The system is entirely broken.

In the US alone, hundreds of thousands of people die a premature death due to obesity.

In fact, obesity is so bad in most first world countries, people are calling it an obesity pandemic (sounds familiar).

Does that mean the government should force McDonald's to serve healthier foods? And force McDonald's to stop using all the shitty ingredients and chemicals they put in their food?

Or maybe the government should regulate Coca Cola, which is infused with so many chemicals that it is a proven toilet cleaner?

Hundreds of thousands of people a year die from obesity, because of these food corporations taking advantage of human taste buds and making these terribly unhealthy foods which taste great and provides an overwhelming amount of calories.

If the government makes it illegal for people to consume over a certain amount of calories or forcibly regulate certain fast food or junk food companies to make better food, I'm sure they can save hundreds of thousands of lives from an early death to obesity.

Another example - hundreds of thousands of people die from vehicular accidents per year in the US. Should the government quarantine all cars? After all, if we don't have cars, there would be no deaths from car accidents.

Fact of the matter is, the government can regulate many things in an attempt to save lives, but there are many consequences, especially on the topic of individual freedom.

Me personally, it's not about saving the economy per se, it is more about having the freedom to choose what I want to do. I want to be able to eat like shit, I want to be able to drive, I want to be able to run my business when there is a somewhat dangerous virus running around.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#730

Post by Mc_Big_G »

stcredzero wrote: post #654
dlkf wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's tough when your country isn't much of a democracy. A major difference between Scandinavia and the US/Canada/many others is that proportional representation plays a much greater role in the electoral system here.

It's a good thing, when a republic is constructed so that a minority still has a voice. One might perceive them as the "wrong" minority today, in the current context. In the future, they might well be the "correct" minority. (That said, I think Sweden of all places in the west, have had the best, most sane reaction to the pandemic.)

What minority are you even talking about?
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