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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#471

Post by scottLobster »

nv-vn wrote: post #424
scottLobster wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky. The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well…

Or people just enjoy having a car that they like? If you can afford it and you spend a lot of your time in your car, why not get one that you enjoy driving?

It's the "if you can afford it" part that's at issue here. Sure if you have the money do whatever you want, but lots of people are leasing/financing cars because they can technically "afford" to spend 1/4 of their take-home salary on a monthly payment when they could never dream of buying the car outright even with years of savings.

They're living at their means instead of within their means, let alone beneath their means. So the moment any financial difficulty comes their way they're screwed. It's especially irrational if it's just for extra enjoyment beyond necessary comfort. Someone who takes out a personal loan to buy all the blu-rays he wants would be called financially irresponsible, yet it seems perfectly reasonable to some to pay hundreds of dollars a month extra for that BMW or Range Rover.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#472

Post by pansa2 »

radicalbyte wrote: post #415
theLotusGambit wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Students attend school for 13 years. Let's say they miss out on 5/8 of a year because of this (I think the number is closer to 1/3, but it's not a big difference). So, instead of getting 100% of a "dismally low" education, they're only getting 95.2%. That hardly seems like a devastating loss to me, either from a knowledge or economic perspective.

I don't know if the US is the same as other countries.. but in the UK your birthdate defines how much schooling you get. I'm a summer child so my first year of school consisted of a two week introduction and then the summer holiday. My best friend at school and all of the higher performing kids (except me) were born in the first half of the year so had an extra 6 months of schooling.

I thought everyone in the UK started school together, in September?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#473

Post by cgh »

hunter2_ wrote: post #322
Tistron wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Scandinavia we've had some sort of pragmatic market socialism, not much central planning but reasonable redistribution in various ways. Seems to work fairly well, although large parts of it has been (and is being) dismantled by the liberals (those are the right here, not the left).

Wait, are you saying that the terms "right/left" are used opposite compared to the US (meaning that the Scandinavian right prefers socialism), or that the term "liberal" is used opposite compared to the US (meaning that Scandinavian liberals oppose socialism)?

The word "liberal" in the US is used in a way unlike anywhere else. Classic liberalism, as the term is used everywhere else, is embodied by publications like eg The Economist.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#474

Post by JoeAltmaier »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #438
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only 52% of americans own any stock whatsoever [0], and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stock... [1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085

> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.

That's because the top has looted the economy, leaving little or nothing for the rest of us. Its not a reflection on the bottom 50% at all.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#475

Post by Domenic_S »

eppp wrote: post #369
slfnflctd wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes sense if the car tends to last 350k+ miles and has only been gently used. There are at least a few models that have pretty consistently been getting up to that or higher before major repair is needed since 2010 or so. I will say I think quality hybrids (again, gently used) are worth more than a lot of their counterparts on this point.

Gently used at 100k seems like a strong ask. I commute two hours a day and get around ~20k miles a year. The car would be five years old at the point of 100k. Quicker than that and the person that owned it drove the crap out of it. Plastic and trim is squeaking, stains, scratches, etc. I dont personally care about any of that but I expect it to be reflected heavily in the price. Then you look at the asking prices for…

My first car was 10 years old when I got it, model year 1986. I did maintenance myself with the help of my father - oil, brakes, rotors, that kind of thing. It was 5 more years before it needed real work (bad alternator, bad fuel pump) and another 3ish years before major failure. A couple grand kept it on the road. After I sold it I still saw it around town for a number of years.

My point is, cars last far, far longer than we generally assume if you take reasonable care of them!

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#476

Post by sudosysgen »

standardUser wrote: post #456
_bxg1 wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. There is deep rot at the heart of the American system, and something is going to have to give. The economy has been broken for the lower 50% for a long time now. This course is unsustainable. I try not to get explicitly political on here, but Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system.…

"Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system" If anything, Bernie Sanders was our first, worst shot at structural economic change. In fact, every candidate on stage during those Democratic debates was running far, far to the economic left of Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore or either Clinton. With some historical perspective, you might see that the tid…

In practice, none of them would actually have implemented it, except the only one with a history of going against party and lobby. Barack Obama ran far to the left of Barack Obama, but ended up compromising with Republicans for some absurd reason as he held both the house and senate, to the degree where he passed Mitt Romney's proposal while dragging his feet.

None of them except for Bernie Sanders was willing to recognize the system as fundamentally broken. Biden and Clinton and indubitably their Democrat sosies would openly profess to the elite that nothing would change.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#477

Post by [deleted] »

klmadfejno wrote: post #313
owenwil wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The thing that worries me is that by attempting to prolong it as long as we are, we are basically setting up a stage for a greater depression Killing thousands of people in the name of the economy would also set the stage for an even longer, deeper recession...

If Thanos snapped his finger and disappeared the oldest 10% of the population, ~33 million people, I'd wager that would do far less economic damage than keeping everyone on lockdown for 365 days. The rate of the economy shrinking is going to get worse and worse as more companies go out of business.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#478

Post by DethNinja »

_bxg1 wrote: post #440
crispyambulance wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. That's the first thing that will be tried, but to be truly successful the "buy in" needs to happen equally as much from the people that are on the verge of picking up pitchforks. It also needs to be an authentic political action. Unfortunately our politics in the USA has gone into profound dysfun…

Yes, this exactly. These problems are absolutely possible to solve through political action. But our leaders have had ample opportunities, spread out over more than a decade, to do so. And they've sent a clear signal that they simply won't .

Actually I believe they sent a clear message that they want problems to get even worse. It is not even keeping the status quo at same level, at the face of this pandemic almost all world governments decisively pursued enriching the 1%.

I only hope more people woke up to this fact and form a critical mass but I doubt it.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#479

Post by stcredzero »

jdhn wrote: post #455
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs.

It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding like employment elsewhere. You have no choice, and if you refuse, you are a horrible person and in some cases you may face civil and criminal consequences.

Injustice isn't any less unjust, because the recipients are somehow in a group one perceives as deplorable. Principles of justice and human rights are universal. This was MLK's ideological point in the Civil Rights movement.

Adherence to this principle is how I distinguish pseudo-activists who just want power and attention from those who really have justice at heart: Are the principles applied to everyone, or just to whomever it's convenient?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#480

Post by lisper »

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #439
lisper wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true, but "much harder" != "impossible". If you print enough dollars, there will come a point at which it will stop being the world's reserve currency. The only way to find out where that point is is to actually cross it. That will be a very painful experiment to conduct. If we ever get to that point, the world will learn the meaning of the word "hysteresis".

No one knows what's the limit of "enough dollars". It's not infinite but it's very possible that enough money can be printed to provide ubi to the lowest rung of the society ad infinitum

There is no question that this could be done. In fact, I think that this is a fairly reasonable policy. It effectively amounts to a flat tax on wealth to fund UBI. Personally I would prefer a progressive tax to "flatten the curve" more at the top, but I'd settle for an inflation-based UBI.

But that is NOT what is happening at the moment. What is happening at the moment is almost the exact opposite: money is being injected mostly at the top in order to prop up asset values, with a little bit coming in to the bottom via the $1200 relief checks, and the middle via PPP.

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