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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#421

Post by karatestomp »

amyjess wrote: post #296
aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

When I was in third grade, we spent half the second semester learning about different kinds of whales. This is material I forgot pretty much as soon as it was over. When I graduated high school, my mom and I went through all my old elementary school material to see what we'd like to keep for sentimental value and what we're okay with throwing out to make room in the garage, and we were just overwhelmed by the sheer m…

High school: 45-50ish hours per week of class time and homework, waking up at 7:00 every friggin' morning to rush out the door, stuck in a building with little exposure to sunlight for hours on end. Work often assigned one day and due the very next.

College: 25-30 hours per week of class time and homework, walks outdoors between classes, long, leisurely breaks throughout the day. Usually at most 3 early wake-up days a week, and often zero. Work almost never due the very next day. It was like a goddamn vacation, after high school.

(granted I attended a low-ranked university and I gather it's not that easy everywhere, but we were still covering material much faster and with far higher expectations for work than in high school, yet it was way the hell easier just because the conditions were more humane and there was far less wasted time—on the flip side, my high school wasn't in any way prestigious or notable either, yet still demanded all that time)

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#422

Post by soared »

A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #39

I wish I could say I disagree, but to be perfectly honest, I was fully expecting a recession last year. As someone may have already mentioned though, between FED basically keeping the market afloat, stimulus working its way through the economy and dollar still riding as a safe haven, it is not that surprising that US economy did not crash, while a good chunk of population is at home and out of commission. The thing t…

>it is not that surprising that US economy did not crash

S&P500 crashed 30% in Feb/Mar.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#423

Post by q084yn39cptyth »

scottLobster wrote: post #403
ChrisRR wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky. The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well…

I'll say for a long time I was the same way, until I bought a Prius.

A little while after I bought it, prices actually went up over what I purchased it for, and I was getting letters from Toyota dealerships offering to buy it back from me above my cost.

It's declined in value since then, but still runs well (knock on wood).

This isn't saying used cars aren't worth it -- they definitely are -- but for certain scenarios I think the choice is maybe more complicated than I thought for a long time.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#424

Post by nv-vn »

scottLobster wrote: post #403
ChrisRR wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky. The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well…

Or people just enjoy having a car that they like? If you can afford it and you spend a lot of your time in your car, why not get one that you enjoy driving?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#425

Post by mzg »

hunter2_ wrote: post #322
Tistron wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Scandinavia we've had some sort of pragmatic market socialism, not much central planning but reasonable redistribution in various ways. Seems to work fairly well, although large parts of it has been (and is being) dismantled by the liberals (those are the right here, not the left).

Wait, are you saying that the terms "right/left" are used opposite compared to the US (meaning that the Scandinavian right prefers socialism), or that the term "liberal" is used opposite compared to the US (meaning that Scandinavian liberals oppose socialism)?

Meaning that the "center" of Scandinavian politics is to the left of liberalism. Left != liberal.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#427

Post by Symmetry »

milesskorpen wrote: post #110
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 things: 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently, but skip the part about it still being down about 10% since the start of the year. 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google account for 20% of S&P market cap. Most of those companies have been helped by the pandemic, or at least not hurt nearly as bad as smaller companies. 3. The market…

Google and Facebook definitely are not being helped right now. Advertising is drying up.

They've got the cash reserves to weather an awful lot.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#428

Post by r00fus »

OldHand2018 wrote: post #294
toomuchtodo wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP's niece takes on the liability as the owner (ie she hits someone and causes harm her insurance doesn't cover), but OP retains legal claim against the property, preventing someone else from obtaining it through a legal judgement or similar proceedings.

Right, if it gets taken away it gets given to me as the senior lien holder. For best legal protection, I should loan her money with some nominal interest rate. A distant family member did this on the house of one of their kids, and it saved them from losing it in a foreclosure. The other lender was so angry with them for refusing to release their lien; but they couldn't legally force them to do it.

Don't house loans require an upfront disclosure of leins against the property?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#429

Post by crispyambulance »

mc32 wrote: post #382
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability. A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

> A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers.

That's the first thing that will be tried, but to be truly successful the "buy in" needs to happen equally as much from the people that are on the verge of picking up pitchforks. It also needs to be an authentic political action. Unfortunately our politics in the USA has gone into profound dysfunction. Something ugly is going to happen, I think. I don't know when, but it's been on the way for quite some time. That guy in the oval office is just a symptom of a really deep problem.

> Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc

Not necessarily!

There are a number of really bad things that precede unrest, usually a collapse of systems that people rely on. The folks in Venezuela didn't want unrest either, but when your currency becomes worthless within a span of a couple years... bad things are going to happen.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#430

Post by nv-vn »

ChrisRR wrote: post #386
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

I suspect this has to do more with social circles than country. Obviously there are more people buying new cars, or else there wouldn't be any used cars for anyone to buy. I think the same is largely true in the US -- lots of people would never buy a brand new car, but there's also many people who would only buy a car brand new. The break down is probably 30/70 or 40/60.
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