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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#571

Post by goalieca »

muststopmyths wrote: post #561
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

between 2011 and 2016 I went on a bunch of motorcycle trips around the western states. It was really depressing and heartbreaking to see so many closed businesses and obviously economically depressed towns when we were supposedly having a economic recovery. You could see that the situation outside the coastal bubbles was pretty bad. Over time the more tourist-serving towns seemed to recover. I am pessimistic that we'…

The economic frustration got trump elected.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#572

Post by wjamesg »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

I am sorry to hear about all this and I am in agreement with you. It is also nice to have this perspective reflected on HN, so thanks

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#573

Post by rootusrootus »

forgot_my_pwd wrote: post #465
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

And all that because of a virus that has a fatality rate about between .2 and .5% which mainly targets people who are already on the verge of death to begin with. We need to begin opening our country back up and implementing more targeted lockdowns and isolations for the most vulnerable. Not only will this bring us to herd immunity faster, we will have a huge pool of recovered people available to donate plasma antibo…

The difficulty here is that the lockdowns are almost entirely self-inflicted, not the result of directives from the government. So even if the government proclaims "back to normal everyone!" very little will change in reality.

Though, if "go back to work!" also means the unemployment assistance and stimulus payments stop, it could get more exciting.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#574

Post by fallingfrog »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Thank you for this.

I don’t want anyone to have to put themselves at risk of catching covid in order to survive. And, the survival of working class people has to be placed above the convenience of upper middle class people who want a haircut or to go to fuddruckers.

At the same time, working class people are the ones who will suffer first and most from an economic downturn. So if they want businesses reopened, you can hardly blame them.

I think we need ubi, right now. Can’t think of any other solution.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#575

Post by Shivetya »

MattGaiser wrote: post #148
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars Retail like that is very underrepresented in the stock market, so those losses wouldn't be reflected.

plus in some areas the unemployment payments have been a disincentive for some to return to work. there have been stories in the news that for many it is more than would earn normally; however most seem to skip over that taxes are not deducted from all benefits and some are taxable so we might get a lot of heart ache come beginning of next year

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#576

Post by goalieca »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

I'm in STEM and we're being killed here as well. Layoffs and furloughs are ubiquitous now.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#577

Post by alexpetralia »

silicon2401 wrote: post #416
alexpetralia wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes in fact the only thing you wouldn't want to hold is dollars; you'd want to hold things that will earn more dollars in the future (an inflation hedge), such as equities. Then you'd only care about FX rates (to the extent you are purchasing internationally), and I don't see any indication the FX futures market is moving against the dollar.

if holding onto dollars right now is bad, could you suggest what would be a good place to put cash?

I did use the conditional "would" because I don't think the market is actually expecting inflation, which would erode the value of dollars.

Expected inflation can be calculated as the difference between a Treasury and a TIPS of the same tenor - say 5 years.

Treasury yields: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...

TIPS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips

So 5 years out, the expected inflation is .37 - (-.418) = .788%; pretty low. In other words, the market doesn't expect all this money printing to translate into general inflation (as measured by the CPI).

Personally I would be dollar-cost averaging into equities.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#578

Post by xyzzyz »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #452
CydeWeys wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Penalties are waived for certain exigent circumstances, which I believe this would qualify as.

The larger penalty would still probably be the taxes, which I assume aren't waved, and again assume there's enough in there to make it worthwhile. I know for myself, even though I've been diligently saving for my relatively short career, I don't think there is.

You are going to pay those taxes anyway when you retire. 401k is only beneficial if you expect to pay lower tax rate when you finally retire. Unless you expect the federal tax rates to go significantly down across the board, withdrawing from 401k when you have no other income is actually a great idea, or it would be without the 10% penalty.

However, you typically can borrow money from your 401k, and pay no penalty, which makes it a good option if you need temporary liquidity.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#579

Post by dragonwriter »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #438
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only 52% of americans own any stock whatsoever [0], and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stock... [1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085

> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.

> The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden,

Only if you only count the income taxes, and ignore other (mostly regressive) payroll, excise/sales, and other taxes at the federal and state levels.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#580

Post by GenerocUsername »

harikb wrote: post #556
stcredzero wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

> one perceives as deplorable There is no reason to bring that reference in an otherwise non-political discussion.

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