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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#561

Post by muststopmyths »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

between 2011 and 2016 I went on a bunch of motorcycle trips around the western states. It was really depressing and heartbreaking to see so many closed businesses and obviously economically depressed towns when we were supposedly having a economic recovery. You could see that the situation outside the coastal bubbles was pretty bad.

Over time the more tourist-serving towns seemed to recover.

I am pessimistic that we're heading for the same situation again. The companies that the stock market cares about will recover, we will all go on pretending that things are back to normal. Meanwhile there will again be large swaths of the population in dire straits.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#562

Post by bo1024 »

0xffff2 wrote: post #371
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.

The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy.

* Middle-class Americans consistently pump money into the stock market generically (not information trading), raising the value of all your stocks over time.

* Now you have a gun to their head to support policies that pump up the value of your stocks even more.

* Also, when shit hits the fan, they can't easily cash out, but you can. Both on a mega-scale (recession), and individual stocks (when companies tank, you sell first, and 401k index or diversified funds take a hit).

I'm not an expert in this stuff but it smells from miles away.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#563

Post by [deleted] »

lisper wrote: post #501
ironmagma wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On top of that, an even greater fraction of people who believe that the administration is incompetent, believe the correct solution to that predicament is to vote the opposite party come election time. It’s as if change in the election system isn’t even an option.

You have to pick your battles. Changing the election system is really hard. There are legitimate policy disagreements one can have with the Democrats, but one thing you cannot say about them is that they are brazenly corrupt and hostile to facts. Donald Trump is both. He is proud of these things. He thinks they're features, not bugs, and about 40% of American voters seem to agree. As long as that remains the case, no…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#564

Post by _-david-_ »

iffybookmark wrote: post #299
jb775 wrote: post #270

Is it outrageous to say we need to end this quarantine right now? At this point, the cure is worse than the disease.

Isn't covid-19 the #1 cause of death in NYC right now? And not, like, starvation? Saying the cure is worse than the disease shows a frightening lack of both empathy and objective reasoning. I don't want to construct a strawman, but I worry that what "reopen" people are really saying is "I don't care if X% of the US population dies - as long as I'm not one of them - if it means I can try to go back to normal." And try…

Your argument is absolutely a strawman. You are not making your argument in good faith and assume that people just want to let people die so they are not inconvenienced.

You should read the real arguments people who want to open actually make. Here are few examples that show that it may actually be better for (some) people to go back to work.

1. People die from suicide, drug use and alcoholism all of which increase quite a bit when there are economic issues. Its not clear if more people will die from this or any increases that could come from reopening. Somebody dying form suicide isn't better or worse than dying from corona virus.

2. Even if people do not die from the above they quite possibly will have a lower life expectancy from having depression, using drugs and alcoholism so people will die sooner. If 10 people die 1 year earlier (from drugs, alcohol, etc) is it worse than 1 person dying 10 years earlier (from virus)? It is a toss up and up to debate. This is of course assuming that somebody wouldn't get the virus and die in quarantine but they would if they were not in quarantine. This is not a sure thing. The person is still going out to the grocery store and could get the virus there. Obviously quarantine is not stopping everybody from getting it.

3. If somebody has the antibodies it appears like they will not get reinfected (at least until there are enough mutations so probably this season). If those with the antibodies go back to work there would be no increase in deaths. In fact it would quite possibly lower the number of deaths.

4. As far as I know there are no vaccines for any corona viruses. That could mean that this virus won't have a vaccine. The only way to stop it may be to build up herd immunity. This means we need people to get infected. Why not let the people who are least likely to die when they get it go back to work.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#565

Post by cik2e »

This isn’t a typical recession and cannot be compared to anything in the past. The economy has been effectively put on pause. So the dynamics of the duration and recovery will be totally different than anything we’ve seen in the past. I’m optimistic about a much quicker recovery than the last one.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#566

Post by lotsofpulp »

mc32 wrote: post #548
lotsofpulp wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How nice of the governments to help businesses afford to eat instead of people. There is no reason assistance to people has to go through business. The reason governments do that is because leaders own equity in the current hierarchy and definitely don’t want to disturb that by giving the lower classes leverage to demand better terms.

If businesses employed robots you’d have a point. But most today provide people gainful employment. No businesses left means no one to hire you.

The businesses don't disappear because the doors close for a few months. People will still have their colleagues’ contact information to be able to re hire and start again.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#567

Post by lisper »

coldpie wrote: post #518
lisper wrote: post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to pick your battles. Changing the election system is really hard. There are legitimate policy disagreements one can have with the Democrats, but one thing you cannot say about them is that they are brazenly corrupt and hostile to facts. Donald Trump is both. He is proud of these things. He thinks they're features, not bugs, and about 40% of American voters seem to agree. As long as that remains the case, no…

This is true, but it's important to note that it applies to Republicans generally. Trump isn't special. He is the results of decades of Republican policy and is supported by Republicans even to this day.

Yes but that still ultimately goes back to support from a very large number (tens of millions) of voters.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#568

Post by at-fates-hands »

vasillevski wrote: post #462
at-fates-hands wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.

You say this like it’s a good thing? This is reflective of an economic system that isn’t functioning well. All this points to is the fact that income is highly concentrated in the hands of a few, and that opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed. I’m sure that went right over your head when you proudly decided to trumpet that nugget of information. Alas, I’m sure I’m just shouting into a void of ignoranc…

I never said it was a good thing, its merely a statistic.

> opportunity is very limited and unequally distributed

Sorry, I don't subscribe to this idea.

I came from a blue collar family. Both parents work long hours to provide for our family. I was working when I was 12. I didn't own anything of value through HS or college. I worked several jobs to pay my way through college. I have lived a big chunk of my life below the poverty line. I didn't graduate in four years like most of my friends, but I was still able to get myself out of college, get a job and have been able to build a career out of almost nothing.

"Shouting into a void of ignorance". Such prose from a person who probably was gifted a nice comfy life, trying to tell the guy who had to bust his ass for everything he has that I'm ignorant? Now that's something.

Feel to take more of my fake internet points away, I don't care.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#569

Post by war1025 »

kaens wrote: post #500
low_common wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you live? That sounds apocalyptic.

this is like, basically all of non major urban area America

Iowa has received a lot of flak for refusing to go into full shelter in place. When I read threads like this, I am thankful for the governor having the backbone to keep a large part of the economy up and functional.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#570

Post by at-fates-hands »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #474
at-fates-hands wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.

That's because the top has looted the economy, leaving little or nothing for the rest of us. Its not a reflection on the bottom 50% at all.

> That's because the top has looted the economy

Can you explain how this happens? How does one "loot" one of the largest economies in the world?

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