Earlier quoted context omitted.
Only 52% of americans own any stock whatsoever [0], and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stock... [1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085
> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.
U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
551–560 of 877 posts
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#552Earlier quoted context omitted.
The essential motivation for people to want to feed their families/pay bills is completely logical, but it's important to keep in perspective that the virus doesn't care about any of these things. We don't need to look too far back in history to see that ending isolation in a pandemic too early can have huge consequences (much bigger than an economic slowdown/unemployment).
This is not the fault of the citizens. This is the fault of government who did not provide enough economic assistance, creating the desperation you're witnessing. This was unnecessary; other governments provided the support their citizens needed (the UK, for example). Either pay people a decent wage to stay home to flatten the curve, or accept the death rate resulting from people who need to eat and have shelter havi…
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#553Earlier quoted context omitted.
> No serious recession is priced in really. That's not entirely true, the composition of the S&P500 has pretty dramatically changed in the last few months[1]. If you look at the linked chart most sectors are down — energy is -50%, consumer discretionary is -27%, financials are -22%. However, a few sectors are up — healthcare is +5%, consumer staples +6.5%, information technology is +8.5%. So with shelter-in-place and…
> So the reason why the market cap of the S&P500 hasn't changed dramatically is because the distribution of the money underlying it has. The S&P500 is a capitalization-weighted index. That's super interesting and makes a lot of sense. However, could you elaborate a bit further? Suppose we have an S&P 5, if the top 5 companies remain the same, but they on average do worse, we'd see the S&P 5 go down. You seem to imply…
No that's not what's happening. Think of S&P 500 index as a basket of stocks. What does that basket look like? If I buy one "unit" of this basket, does it include 500 shares of stock, across the 500 companies? NO. The distribution of the basket is weighted, and it's weighted by market capitalization. So if all stocks were worth the same, you would have a unit amount of every single stock. But if, say, 5 companies do really well and 5 companies do really poorly, 1 "unit" of the S&P500 basket will actually include more of the "really well" stocks, and less of the "really poorly" stocks. The capital is automatically reallocated based on the market capitalization. Because of this, the market value of the S&P500 has stayed relatively stable.
> And that makes some sense. However, that would mean that if you had an all-world or all-us stock indexes, which did not exclude any companies dropping out of a top 100 or top 500 or whatever, would have to see a large drop.
Again, that's only true if this index is naive enough to not apply any sort of weighting. Most indexes in the world are weighted indexes, in fact we are generally instructed that indexes that do not apply any sort of weighting are bad indexes.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#554Earlier quoted context omitted.
> and I'm going to record a lien on it with the county so nobody can take it if things get worse and she has to declare bankruptcy This is brilliant. I have never considered using such a tool in my travels, but have added it to my tool belt. Thank you. > The rich get richer because they know how to take advantage of situations like this. Preach!
Can someone explain how this works?
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#555Earlier quoted context omitted.
> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…
There was some discussion of aspects of this yesterday and there have been a few articles. The general consensus is that kids who have good home environments and have at least some interest in learning will mostly do fine. Some may even do better than normal. But kids in poor home situations who were already barely scraping by--if that--will basically lose the year and everything that implies. In some areas, double-d…
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#556Earlier quoted context omitted.
>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.
The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…
There is no reason to bring that reference in an otherwise non-political discussion.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#557Earlier quoted context omitted.
> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.
Man, that 50% of the population that's able to buy things without paying sales tax is really fortunate. How do I sign up for that benefit?
...In all seriousness, the parent comment was probably referring to the Federal Income Tax.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#558Earlier quoted context omitted.
In Scandinavia we've had some sort of pragmatic market socialism, not much central planning but reasonable redistribution in various ways. Seems to work fairly well, although large parts of it has been (and is being) dismantled by the liberals (those are the right here, not the left).
To call it socialism is incorrect. Carl Bildt (former Prime Minister of Sweeden) said "Bernie Sanders was lucky to be able to get to the Soviet Union in 1988 and praise all its stunning socialist achievements before the entire system and empire collapsed under the weight of its own spectacular failures." [0] Lars Løkke Rasmussen (former Prime Minister of Denmark) said "I know that some people in the US associate the…
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#559Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not even 3 decades ago all it took was a jury verdict for anarchy and looting to sweep across LA, requiring the national guard to put down the unrest. People were breaking into stores to steal diapers. What will be the breaking point this time around?
This intentionally ignores 100 years of oppression and institutional racism that was the actual powder keg. The verdict was just the striking of the tinder. The exploding inequality and continuous safety net collapse in the united states could very well be a similar powder keg waiting for a match.
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession
#560Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's not a law of physics, but there are a lot of pitiable kids out there who have never even caught a whiff of good fortune in their lives, and the US lacks the social sensitivity to make them feel secure enough to add another year of high school to their pile of problems. Yes, that's why there are "poor kids roaming the street like packs of feral dogs" in the first place, in one of the wealthiest countries in the…
I am not advocating lowering any bars. I'm just saying that those kids are as screwed now as they have ever been, and that this particular misfortune will not play in their favor in the future, as employers, government, and nongovernment institutions will be just as unsympathetic then as they are now. A sufficient proportion of the US is willing to let those kids fall by the wayside, rather than do whatever can be do…
Sorry, I misinterpreted your reply. My comment was a reply to a comment about lowering the bar and I thought you were arguing that same point.
>I'm just saying that those kids are as screwed now as they have ever been, and that this particular misfortune will not play in their favor in the future, as employers, government, and nongovernment institutions will be just as unsympathetic then as they are now.
I completely agree with that assessment.