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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#191

Post by dd36 »

lisper wrote: post #150
xxpor wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation has only been on a downward trend since the early 80s, despite what everyone predicted when Nixon closed the gold window.

That's because the economy has grown more or less apace with the money supply (or, more accurately, because the Fed has controlled the growth of the money supply to keep pace with the economy). Now we are pumping cash into a shrinking economy. You can't do that for very long without producing inflation.

It’s also because of the undermining of labor unions. They haven’t returned.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#192

Post by dudul »

inscionent wrote: post #178
dudul wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

We can print more money right. Money isn't real. Death and this virus are. How about we just take care of those who need taking care of during this disaster. How about we put all national efforts to keep the lights on, providing safe housing and keeping the food supply chains intact. Instead we are worried about corporate quarterly profits and when the Ruby Tuesday can reopen, because somehow serving burgers for $3/h…

So taking care of those who need an income to keep their house is calling them "idiot, stupid MAGA, selfish, moron" on Twitter or in the media in general?

Please read the comment you're replying to. I don't see anything contradicting the points you're making.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#193

Post by grey-area »

obblekk wrote: post #156
grey-area wrote: post #22

NB this is for the first quarter of 2020, which had hardly any impact from Covid-19 - lockdowns mostly happened late March and the start of April. So the second quarter will be a better reflection of the impact of shutdowns and changes in consumer behaviour/travel, but we won't see figures for that for a while. Almost more worrying, 20% of the value of the S&P 500 is now concentrated in the top 5 tech stocks, which a…

Vulnerable, yes but the google earnings from yesterday show even in advertising, there seems to be a temporary floor. Entirely possible the floor is a temporary illusion and falls out over next 3mo, but the market is betting that won’t happen (I don’t know why, I’m not an expert on ads)

Yes, it could conceivably go either way at present, and I guess the market is being optimistic, but most countries are locking down for months, not weeks, and there may unfortunately be a second wave for some.

Do bear in mind those google results were for a quarter which was pretty much untouched outside China.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#194

Post by francisofascii »

iambateman wrote: post #4

I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?

Not sure how widespread this is, but my company is doing fine, business is up, yet due to COVID-19, is delaying raises and retirement contributions. Companies have a good excuse for layoffs and for not increasing salary.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#195

Post by standardUser »

cpursley wrote: post #121
hnarn wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

Literally no one anywhere wants central planning, no one wants America to be anything like Venezuela, these are fevered fantasies of uninformed minds, so feel free to put these lines to bed permanently.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#196

Post by ceejayoz »

aphextron wrote: post #145
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

I think we're gonna have to talk about repeating the school year come fall.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#197

Post by toomuchtodo »

RankingMember wrote: post #151
dudul wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

The essential motivation for people to want to feed their families/pay bills is completely logical, but it's important to keep in perspective that the virus doesn't care about any of these things. We don't need to look too far back in history to see that ending isolation in a pandemic too early can have huge consequences (much bigger than an economic slowdown/unemployment).

This is not the fault of the citizens. This is the fault of government who did not provide enough economic assistance, creating the desperation you're witnessing. This was unnecessary; other governments provided the support their citizens needed (the UK, for example).

Either pay people a decent wage to stay home to flatten the curve, or accept the death rate resulting from people who need to eat and have shelter having to go to their jobs.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#198

Post by res0nat0r »

School-Cotton wrote: post #160
res0nat0r wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand their thinking because not working is causing a massive amount of collateral damage, but the virus doesn't care about any of that. If everyone goes back to normal too early, this all just starts over, and folks are forced to be inside even longer, there's just no way around it.

This is wrong. We are not forced to be inside because of the virus. It would have been totally possible to have this pandemic going on with zero lockdowns, which would have probably led to worse health effects, and less-bad economic effects. It's a pet peeve of mine when people claim that we must lock down or that the virus is forcing us to do this or that, as opposed to it being a political choice based on tradeoffs…

Sure, we can let a million folks in the USA die because we love our capitalism, but 80%+ of the USA disagrees with that false dichotomy.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#199

Post by maram »

aphextron wrote: post #145
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

> Missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids.

Which subject can they study at school that they cannot study at home?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#200

Post by cpursley »

klmadfejno wrote: post #169
Filligree wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

80-90% of people who catch this disease would survive without treatment. If America won't support people who might die of starvation when stuck at home, then the individually smartest response becomes to take their chance with the virus. I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however.

> I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however. Not much if 80% of them are very old and sick.

You're getting downvotes but it's true. There are other considerations that are completely being ignored by the ivory tower types. It's shocking to some, but jobs are how people afford to live their lives (buy food, pay rent, pay tax which funds government, etc).

I'm more concerned about social and political unrest that often results from mass unemployment, people losing their homes, not enough to eat, etc than losing people to the virus (which still stucks). 22 million unemployed and growing is enough to swing elections in dark directions...

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