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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#451

Post by ip26 »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well

The bigger picture is not any more visible from a STEM job. I haven't left the house aside for a jog in at least a month, and I work from my kitchen. I am living in a smaller bubble than ever, the only thing I'm missing is a hamster wheel. Wait, no, there's already a treadmill in the basement.

I hope online shopping is helping the shipping industries limp along, if only a little.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#452

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

CydeWeys wrote: post #436
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does what you have in your 401k matter if your house and car are being repossessed? I suppose you could pull it all out at penalties and with a bunch of taxes, but that's going to be work, and assumes you have enough in there to make it worthwhile.

Penalties are waived for certain exigent circumstances, which I believe this would qualify as.

The larger penalty would still probably be the taxes, which I assume aren't waved, and again assume there's enough in there to make it worthwhile. I know for myself, even though I've been diligently saving for my relatively short career, I don't think there is.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#453

Post by a_wild_dandan »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Someone on Twitter described the stock market as a graph of rich people feelings and, facetious as that is, I wonder if there's truth to it. A market driven partly by emotion could mean a stock hysteresis where the market's long-term reaction lags behind the economic reality like you describe. The recent headline "16 million people just got laid off but U.S. stocks had their best week in 45 years" is the most mind-shatteringly insane headline I've ever seen.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#454

Post by meragrin_ »

grey-area wrote: post #22

NB this is for the first quarter of 2020, which had hardly any impact from Covid-19 - lockdowns mostly happened late March and the start of April. So the second quarter will be a better reflection of the impact of shutdowns and changes in consumer behaviour/travel, but we won't see figures for that for a while. Almost more worrying, 20% of the value of the S&P 500 is now concentrated in the top 5 tech stocks, which a…

Large scale government lockdowns may have started in late March. By the beginning of March, corporations, local governments, and people were starting their own lockdowns. I had a 3 day business trip in early March. I wasn't sure if it was going to be cancelled because of the virus. Both flights weren't even half full. Security lines were either almost or entirely non-existent. In Philly, traffic was significantly less and far fewer people in restaurants than previous visits. Before I got home, local schools were already starting close. From my point of view, everything started at the end of February or very beginning of March.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#455

Post by jdhn »

mcphilip wrote: post #138
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#456

Post by standardUser »

_bxg1 wrote: post #381
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. There is deep rot at the heart of the American system, and something is going to have to give. The economy has been broken for the lower 50% for a long time now. This course is unsustainable. I try not to get explicitly political on here, but Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system.…

"Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system"

If anything, Bernie Sanders was our first, worst shot at structural economic change. In fact, every candidate on stage during those Democratic debates was running far, far to the economic left of Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore or either Clinton. With some historical perspective, you might see that the tides have turned in favor of the types of changes you are calling for, not against as so many people seem to pretend.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#457

Post by apazzolini »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #438
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only 52% of americans own any stock whatsoever [0], and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stock... [1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085

> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.

Man, that 50% of the population that's able to buy things without paying sales tax is really fortunate. How do I sign up for that benefit?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#458

Post by r00fus »

q084yn39cptyth wrote: post #423
scottLobster wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky. The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well…

I'll say for a long time I was the same way, until I bought a Prius. A little while after I bought it, prices actually went up over what I purchased it for, and I was getting letters from Toyota dealerships offering to buy it back from me above my cost. It's declined in value since then, but still runs well (knock on wood). This isn't saying used cars aren't worth it -- they definitely are -- but for certain scenario…

Well, in 2009 my Dad's also had the same experience with the dealer who wanted to give him $5k more than he paid for his year old Silverado - I think it was due to the overall market undergoing massive inflation (not reported as "core inflation") due to QE and other stimulus efforts.

I doubt the same would happen now with an economy halted.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#459

Post by sudosysgen »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #438
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only 52% of americans own any stock whatsoever [0], and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/190883/half-americans-own-stock... [1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085

> and the richest 10% of americans own 84% of all stock. The top 20% of earners also handle close to 90% of the tax burden, while close to 50% of the population pay nothing in taxes.

Sure, but without the bottom 50% the top 20% would not be able to make nearly as much money as they do.

Progressive taxation is aware of the exploitive nature of capitalism. Just because people are being exploited doesn't mean they don't contribute, much to the contrary.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#460

Post by Shivetya »

OldHand2018 wrote: post #248
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'l…

This is such horrid advice. She will have to declare bankruptcy to discharge the auto loan and 18k debt may not be sufficient to guarantee she can. Worse, that 18k will now have fees added to it for the repossession and late payments. The chance of getting the car back through auction are near nil for many reasons, from that auctions do not necessarily take place in the same locale to it can be months before the car gets to that point as the paper work has to work through the system, a system sufficiently hampered by the CV19

Now we don't know the full extent of the original poster's loan issues but the best bet is to try to arrange payment changes with the lien holder. Never ever advise anyone to walk away, that is the worst thing you can ever do.

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