Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

news.harvard.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 186 posts

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#81

Post by Xamayon »

Zenst wrote: post #36
devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

>Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That would be the Housing Market. However, the biggest impact may very well be the reaction in the public towards this and that in itself would cause more avenues of betting. Like facemask filters, only so many get made, so whatever companies make that will see a share price increase, if…

The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese demand is high enough these days that those mfgs are probably just selling the few they have domestically.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#82

Post by ethbro »

mrfusion wrote: post #46
devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

Stock markets are saying no, right?

Stock markets dominated by semi-intetested participants are terrible at predicting unlikely events.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#83

Post by Fomite »

Anon84 wrote: post #71
Fomite wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A couple notes on this: - Right now, there's some ongoing research about R0 relative to humidity, and it's not promising. This includes Singapore, but it should also be noted that Singapore has an amazing public health system that will confound using it as an example in both directions. - Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza, the fact of the matter is we have very little notion of why it's seasonal…

Can you point me to your review? A few years ago (circa 2010 or so) when I was seriously working on epidemic modeling, we tried to look for an effective seasonality model, based on temperature, humidity, etc that worked globally and failed miserably. What seemed to work in one country or area failed completely in others, and vice versa. I'm curious to see if things have improved since then

It's an older paper (circa 2006) but...to be honest, I revisit it occasionally, and the problems we point out are still there. https://jvi.asm.org/content/81/11/5429

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#84

Post by incompatible »

iamdamian wrote: post #41
ericb wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A latency window long enough to let people get around the world, combined with asymptomatic spread is pretty hard to stop. I can't even figure out how you could detect it well enough to stop it.

Based on the article, it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. > GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier. > LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published…

The case of Steve Walsh is interesting, given that he apparently infected several others before being hospitalized "despite showing no symptoms".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#85

Post by nutjob2 »

catalogia wrote: post #12
joeyspn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore is having 30ºC days, yet the epidemic is progressing and the city is already bracing for the worse...

Singapore also has a lot of air conditioning. Perhaps the transmission is occurring primarily indoors, away from the 30ºC heat.

Exactly. The comparison with Indonesia is interesting, which has a similar climate, but isn't as rich or developed as Singapore.

Air conditioning is actually very conducive to colds and the like. When you go from outside to inside you're usually sweaty and the air conditioning tends to make you too cold until you dry out. I've caught way more sniffles in the tropics than in the freezing climates.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#86

Post by et-al »

catalogia wrote: post #12
joeyspn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore is having 30ºC days, yet the epidemic is progressing and the city is already bracing for the worse...

Singapore also has a lot of air conditioning. Perhaps the transmission is occurring primarily indoors, away from the 30ºC heat.

Air-conditioning also removes humidity from the air.

On a tangent, I'd love to see a graph of illnesses during summer before / after the widespread adoption of AC.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#87

Post by hkmurakami »

marshray wrote: post #52
justinzollars wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its actually been novel coronavirus, since day one.

Which is not any less ambiguous.

nCOV-2019 seems okay.

References to SARS in Hong Kong news were often accompanied with references with 2003, the year of the outbreak.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#88

Post by jerf »

ethbro wrote: post #82
mrfusion wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock markets are saying no, right?

Stock markets dominated by semi-intetested participants are terrible at predicting unlikely events.

Everyone is terrible at predicting unlikely events. If you think you've got a better bead on it, it doesn't take all that much money to buy some options.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#89

Post by gruez »

justinzollars wrote: post #7
teeray wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

Its actually been novel coronavirus, since day one.

great, now what happens if another coronavirus epidemic hits? do you still call it "novel coronavirus", because it's novel? do whoever's in charge of naming get their act together and allocate a number in hours rather than weeks?

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#90

Post by jerf »

Fomite wrote: post #48
ars wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's easier to pronounce COVID.

My actual objection is that COVID is close to "corvid"

If you do find yourself or someone you love infected with corvids, I can, if nothing else, guarantee a very high karma HN post for you if nothing else. HN loves corvids.
Post reply on HN