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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#71
post #21
post #6

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. There have been several research about seasonal influenza and how it correlates with weather, like…

A couple notes on this: - Right now, there's some ongoing research about R0 relative to humidity, and it's not promising. This includes Singapore, but it should also be noted that Singapore has an amazing public health system that will confound using it as an example in both directions. - Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza, the fact of the matter is we have very little notion of why it's seasonal…

Can you point me to your review?

A few years ago (circa 2010 or so) when I was seriously working on epidemic modeling, we tried to look for an effective seasonality model, based on temperature, humidity, etc that worked globally and failed miserably. What seemed to work in one country or area failed completely in others, and vice versa. I'm curious to see if things have improved since then

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#72
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we’ll keep calling it the coronavirus in casual conversation. I’m not sure if there’s a difference between calling it Ncov-2019 or COVID-2019 :/

nCoV-2019 is the virus and COVID-2019 is the disease.

SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus and COVID-19 is the name of the disease it causes.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#73
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you please flesh out your comment on Ding's skill in regard to infectious disease epidemiology ? I don't doubt you, I just like to know why people say things.

Sure thing. First, note that Eric Feigl-Ding is a nutritional epidemiologist, not an infectious disease epidemiologist. Infectious diseases are weird for a lot of reasons, and require something of a different skillset. For example, in a Tweet of his he has now deleted: "never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career." about the estimate for R0 for this novel coronavirus. Similar R0 e…

Thank you for making the effort required to put all this together.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#74
post #4

It's now officially named COVID-19 by the WHO.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

The name is correct but vague, we've had coronavirus spreads before (like SARS) and will have in the future, so it'll be confusing whether we're talking about this one or something else.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#75

It appears US is better than Indonesia in reporting, but worse than Singapore, according to their preprint [1]. AFAIK, the coronavirus test is not being conducted for people who have no history of visiting China or traveling outside, and the virus can be transmitted before symptoms could appear. Based on the article, it is conceivable that the virus could soon be found from a person who has no travel history outside…

In the US they also are not testing people who came from China even if they have mild symptoms.

Unless you have a fever and a cough they won't test you. According to the latest research out of China there are many people who when admitted to the hospital had no fever but tested positive.

Frankly a lot of cases are likely not being caught in the US and elsewhere.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#76
post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

Metaculus is reputation based, not real money. They have a market for coronavirus, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infe... Currently has a 3% chance of infecting more than 1 billion and 50% chance of infecting more than by 865k by 2021

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#77
post #73
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure thing. First, note that Eric Feigl-Ding is a nutritional epidemiologist, not an infectious disease epidemiologist. Infectious diseases are weird for a lot of reasons, and require something of a different skillset. For example, in a Tweet of his he has now deleted: "never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career." about the estimate for R0 for this novel coronavirus. Similar R0 e…

Thank you for making the effort required to put all this together.

My pleasure.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#78
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can put aside morals for a moment, you could make a killing just buying and selling face masks for the next few months.

You just gave me a good idea. Thanks! I am gonna open a site for giving free mask through crowdsourcing in many needed places.

There was, IIRC, a campaign doing this a few bad wildfire seasons ago.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#79
post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

Crypto clearly reacting

Flight to quality... Put it all on scep256k1

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#80
post #8
post #6

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. There have been several research about seasonal influenza and how it correlates with weather, like…

Singapore is having 30ºC days, yet the epidemic is progressing and the city is already bracing for the worse...

maybe it could have been much worse if it was colder.
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