Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’ • Hacker News Board

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#51

Post by dcolkitt » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:22 AM UTC

pjkundert wrote: post #33

foota wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought some put options on the S&P index a couple weeks ago.

Won’t help, if response is infinite QE and monetization of government debt: Dow 1,000,000, here we come! I was thinking deep out of the money gold calls...

QE and monetary stimulus is primarily effective at counteracting demand shocks. For example productive capacity, like empty storefront or unemployed workers, sits unused because liquidity has dried up.

A worldwide pandemic would primarily exert its economic effect through supply shocks. The productive capacity of the economy genuinely shrinks. Stores can't open during a quarantine. Sick workers can't show up at the office.

A pandemic might have second-order demand shocks, particularly if panicking investors flee to quality. But there'd still be a genuine contraction in real and potential GDP, most of which would get absorbed by contracting corporate profits. Monetary stimulus can't route around those constraints.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#52

Post by marshray » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:24 AM UTC

justinzollars wrote: post #7

teeray wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.

Its actually been novel coronavirus, since day one.

Which is not any less ambiguous.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#53

Post by mc32 » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:24 AM UTC

ars wrote: post #32

Aeolun wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we’ll keep calling it the coronavirus in casual conversation. I’m not sure if there’s a difference between calling it Ncov-2019 or COVID-2019 :/

It's easier to pronounce COVID.

\enkov\ vs \kouvid\ is splitting hairs...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#54

Post by sitkack » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:26 AM UTC

catalogia wrote: post #12

joeyspn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore is having 30ºC days, yet the epidemic is progressing and the city is already bracing for the worse...

Singapore also has a lot of air conditioning. Perhaps the transmission is occurring primarily indoors, away from the 30ºC heat.

And circulated through the building via blowers.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#55

Post by jdhendrickson » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:26 AM UTC

Fomite wrote: post #47

joeyspn wrote: post #5

Yesterday I submitted this but it didn't get many upvotes.. https://towardsdatascience.com/modelling-the-coronavirus-epi... I think that reached this point is obvious that in our hyperconnected cities a containment is going to be very difficult if the R0 is 3+ and we don't shutdown commuting PS: for those interested in real-time info from experts I recommended following: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter…

Please don't follow Eric Ding. He's not particularly qualified, and his statements to date have betrayed that he's not actually all that good at infectious disease epidemiology. I'd suggest, in place, Maia Majumder (@maiamajumder) and Tara Smith (@aetiology).

Could you please flesh out your comment on Ding's skill in regard to infectious disease epidemiology ? I don't doubt you, I just like to know why people say things.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#56

Post by chiph » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:27 AM UTC

brians wrote: post #44

ericb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chloroquine is over-the-counter in England and other places. Hypothetically, anyone have an idea where to find someone willing to send a chloroquine care-package to the USA?

Drink tonic water. Quinine’s close enough.

I now have a good explanation for the boss why I'm drinking gin & tonics at work..

James Burke covered this in Connections² : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yLa_IrAj-o

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#57

Post by leemailll » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:28 AM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

In vitro means nothing for clinical use

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#58

Post by gniv » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:28 AM UTC

Fomite wrote: post #21

haunter wrote: post #6

>But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator. There have been several research about seasonal influenza and how it correlates with weather, like…

A couple notes on this: - Right now, there's some ongoing research about R0 relative to humidity, and it's not promising. This includes Singapore, but it should also be noted that Singapore has an amazing public health system that will confound using it as an example in both directions. - Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza, the fact of the matter is we have very little notion of why it's seasonal…

> Having written a review on the seasonality of influenza

Is one of the theories lack of Vitamin D?

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#59

Post by YarickR2 » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:28 AM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

Finally a disease I could claim gin and tonic are the cure for. Pops open tonic bottle, pours gin deliberately

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#60

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg » Wed, Feb 12, 2020, 1:30 AM UTC

How does this jive w/ the totals counted on this site:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

? I guess the source data could be fudged but surely China realizes by now that faking things is only going to make them look worse in the long run? Maybe I'm too optimistic.