31–40 of 186 posts
It's now officially named COVID-19 by the WHO.
Despite that, I think it’s too late to rename this virus. People have called it “coronavirus” for weeks now and the name will likely stick, correct or not.
Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.
I bought some put options on the S&P index a couple weeks ago.
I was thinking deep out of the money gold calls...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I bought some put options on the S&P index a couple weeks ago.
Won’t help, if response is infinite QE and monetization of government debt: Dow 1,000,000, here we come! I was thinking deep out of the money gold calls...
AFAIK, the coronavirus test is not being conducted for people who have no history of visiting China or traveling outside, and the virus can be transmitted before symptoms could appear. Based on the article, it is conceivable that the virus could soon be found from a person who has no travel history outside US, but only when the person gets dangerously sick.
[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v...
Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.
That would be the Housing Market.
However, the biggest impact may very well be the reaction in the public towards this and that in itself would cause more avenues of betting. Like facemask filters, only so many get made, so whatever companies make that will see a share price increase, if they are listed. Equally, the usual suspects in vaccines will be all hedged by the money market in trading from now until a winner (vaccine found) is made. Which will probably be around the time for winter 2020 flu vaccine from what I've read so far from best estimates.
That all said, if they said London would get 1" of snow, the amount of panic would be greater than what we are seeing so far.
But that may well change quickly, though at least we never had a flu riot that I'm aware of in history.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
People. Not every person. Not epidemiologists specifically, obviously. But the name has now stuck.
Yeah, but the WHO isn't naming things for "people". Any more than the fact that "people" call things stomach flu when they're not at all influenza related changes that things are called "norovirus" and "rotavirus".
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Won’t help, if response is infinite QE and monetization of government debt: Dow 1,000,000, here we come! I was thinking deep out of the money gold calls...
If the OP really thinks this will be a worldwide pandemic, far dated put options are the best bet. Wall Street has definitely not priced that in. Everyone is assuming this will be over with in a few months.
Seriously, though; S&P puts yields are implicitly discounted by inflation — do we really think they won’t sacrifice the dollar on the alter of asset price nominal “stability”?
Gold calls get you a positive real yield on both stock market drop & inflationary response, no?