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Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

news.harvard.edu

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#41

Post by iamdamian »

ericb wrote: post #24
devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A latency window long enough to let people get around the world, combined with asymptomatic spread is pretty hard to stop. I can't even figure out how you could detect it well enough to stop it.

Based on the article, it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission.

> GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier.

> LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published yet, but the evidence for that that’s been peer reviewed is quite limited.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#42

Post by wendyshu »

devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

There's https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-wil...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#43

Post by thom »

devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

If you can put aside morals for a moment, you could make a killing just buying and selling face masks for the next few months.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#44

Post by brians »

ericb wrote: post #22
tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

Chloroquine is over-the-counter in England and other places. Hypothetically, anyone have an idea where to find someone willing to send a chloroquine care-package to the USA?

Drink tonic water. Quinine’s close enough.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#45

Post by Waterluvian »

ericb wrote: post #22
tim333 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that chloroquine, an old anti malarial drug is "highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro". I wonder if anyone's doing a study to see if that stops it spreading in the real world? I almost thought I could do a double blind study myself with a website and a bunch of chloroquine pills and aspirins and randomly post volunteers one or the other. Dunno if the post works in Wuhan thou…

Chloroquine is over-the-counter in England and other places. Hypothetically, anyone have an idea where to find someone willing to send a chloroquine care-package to the USA?

Careful to avoid the symptoms of hysteria.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#47

Post by Fomite »

joeyspn wrote: post #5

Yesterday I submitted this but it didn't get many upvotes.. https://towardsdatascience.com/modelling-the-coronavirus-epi... I think that reached this point is obvious that in our hyperconnected cities a containment is going to be very difficult if the R0 is 3+ and we don't shutdown commuting PS: for those interested in real-time info from experts I recommended following: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter…

Please don't follow Eric Ding. He's not particularly qualified, and his statements to date have betrayed that he's not actually all that good at infectious disease epidemiology.

I'd suggest, in place, Maia Majumder (@maiamajumder) and Tara Smith (@aetiology).

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#48

Post by Fomite »

ars wrote: post #32
Aeolun wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we’ll keep calling it the coronavirus in casual conversation. I’m not sure if there’s a difference between calling it Ncov-2019 or COVID-2019 :/

It's easier to pronounce COVID.

My actual objection is that COVID is close to "corvid"

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#49

Post by marshray »

devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

Metals futures seem pretty responsive.

E.g., https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/HG_/W

Re: Coronavirus outbreak likely now ‘gathering steam’

#50

Post by thrwaway69 »

thom wrote: post #43
devit wrote: post #20

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

If you can put aside morals for a moment, you could make a killing just buying and selling face masks for the next few months.

You just gave me a good idea. Thanks!

I am gonna open a site for giving free mask through crowdsourcing in many needed places.

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