Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU • Hacker News Board

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#251

Post by microcolonel » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:42 PM UTC

xbmcuser wrote: post #131

The number of people dying each day from this corona virus is increasing and these are official numbers so might be under reported. 29-30th Jan around 40 people were dying a day now it has reached 80-90. When you take into account the number of infected is still increasing and no real way to control the spread or treat the virus this is going to be way worse in the next few weeks. https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneum…

As the share of the population that is infected grows, the death rate for complications will increase dramatically. It is already extreme, and it is expected to grow exponentially into April (at least in Hubei).

Up to the limits of medical facilities, your odds will be good, but it takes a lot of resources to keep patients alive when they are experiencing complications, and those resources are inherently limited.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#252

Post by allovernow » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:50 PM UTC

samstave wrote: post #115

kccqzy wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some tr…

Can you grab and translate and share some of these please? Also, do you have any opinion on this: https://i.redd.it/88osl54prjf41.png

According to Wikipedia SO2 comes from fossil fuels so let's cross our fingers and pray they're just bringing a power plant online or something.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#253

Post by allovernow » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:50 PM UTC

rmrm wrote: post #103

allovernow wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, and this could very well be a propaganda piece, but it somehow comes off as genuine. There are activists in China who recognize the severity, understand the grasp of the party, and still desperately attempt to reach out - including the selfless doctor who died yesterday, and a number of activists who have already been disappeared. No doubt the number of such people has been increasing exponentially and…

90% of Chinese GDP is stopped. Do you have a source for that? I wouldnt think that is even possible.

>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-more-of-china-ex...

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#254

Post by hef19898 » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:55 PM UTC

bullen wrote: post #249

If you look at the graphs here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ And know that in 3 weeks everyone either dies or has recovered. Doesn't that mean we will see a large amount of total deaths in a couple of weeks? Those graphs are both exponential! Remember that cases are subjectively selected, while deaths have a fixed statistical variance!

The WHO is regularly publishing situation reports with all kinds of data in there. Maybe you go and have a look those?

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#255

Post by allovernow » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:57 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #206

tristanj wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe it goes further than this. WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Panic is not helpful in any situation, and leads to an unstable society, hoarding, and destructive behaviors.

And what makes you believe that to be true? Have any WHO numbers been proven wrong in the past for, say, ebola? SARS? Or any other epidemic or disease? Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Because that is how you spread panic if you ask me.

> Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them?

Jesus man this is a modern day authoritarian regime with a fully digitized social credit score and reeducation camps for dissidents. Yes, it is perfectly rational not to trust what Chinese people are saying.

I can't believe how thoroughly the notion of culture has been wiped from the American psyche. People on average think and act differently in other countries, and sometimes those differences are negative.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#256

Post by bredren » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 4:03 PM UTC

bullen wrote: post #249

If you look at the graphs here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ And know that in 3 weeks everyone either dies or has recovered. Doesn't that mean we will see a large amount of total deaths in a couple of weeks? Those graphs are both exponential! Remember that cases are subjectively selected, while deaths have a fixed statistical variance!

Those graphs depict Total Cases and Total Deaths. (This presentation of data is sometimes used by startups trying to show their amazing growth off to potential investors.)

If you look at the daily change in amounts of deaths from this data series, it is more of a wobbly straight line:

https://i.imgur.com/gQajRT9.png

I did a linear projection of this data series to see how long it would take for a 1000 a day to be perishing if this trend and I came up with 8/8. Can anyone else replicate this?

I would hope containment would slow these numbers, but it is possible it could go another way. If the data itself is underreported then it could also be worse.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#257

Post by bredren » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 4:07 PM UTC

lukaa wrote: post #82

I think we are dealing with black swan event. It's new disease, higly contagious and with 200 more deathly rate than flu. Since we don't know much about that disease and how much that virus can mutate being extra cautious is best strategy.

I also suspect this is possible.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#258

Post by hef19898 » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 4:10 PM UTC

allovernow wrote: post #255

hef19898 wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what makes you believe that to be true? Have any WHO numbers been proven wrong in the past for, say, ebola? SARS? Or any other epidemic or disease? Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Because that is how you spread panic if you ask me.

> Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Jesus man this is a modern day authoritarian regime with a fully digitized social credit score and reeducation camps for dissidents. Yes, it is perfectly rational not to trust what Chinese people are saying. I can't believe how thoroughly the notion of culture has been wiped from the American psyche. People on average think and act diffe…

And you really do believe with all that international scrutiny China would get away with reporting false numbers? Come on.

Also don't know what to make of your last sentence. Cultural differences being negative? What are you talking about?

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#259

Post by lrem » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 4:12 PM UTC

raverbashing wrote: post #181

chvid wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand what it is that the Chinese authorities are supposedly misreporting? The mortality rate of 2% is consistent with the number of cases and deaths reported by other countries. Is it that there are a large number of undiagnosed cases? That is kind of a given and is probably also the case in other countries. The timespan between first case and until it gets reported to who and quarantines start is less…

The question I'm still not sure is: of those who were infected, how many have been discharged from the hospital already? What was their mean recovery time?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#260

Post by OnACoffeeBreak » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #182

chvid wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand what it is that the Chinese authorities are supposedly misreporting? The mortality rate of 2% is consistent with the number of cases and deaths reported by other countries. Is it that there are a large number of undiagnosed cases? That is kind of a given and is probably also the case in other countries. The timespan between first case and until it gets reported to who and quarantines start is less…

Chinese authorities at some level -- it's not clear that this was CCP or local Wuhan decisionmakers -- clearly tried to shut down initial reports of the outbreak, as evidenced by Dr. Li Wenliang's detention and citation. As a new disease, with the first cases possibly being acquired as early as late November 2019, it wasn't until mid to late January 2020 that city and national authorities appeared to start taking the…

> The fact that SARS, MERS, and 2019-nCoV all appear to have emerged during November may be significant.

From [1]: The “seasonal” reflects the fact that viruses can’t tolerate high heat and humidity, preferring the cool and dry conditions of winter and spring, Webby said. That’s why flu, as well as the four coronaviruses, are less prevalent in warm, humid months.

1: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...