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Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

straitstimes.com

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Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#241

Post by adinobro »

odiroot wrote: post #238
torgian wrote: post #144

My wife is mainland Chinese, and she has been saying that it a worse than what the government is saying. Also, since Li Wenliang died, well, frankly a lot of people are pissed at the CCP. Anyway, I feel like it’ll be an epidemic ( it already is, I believe ) in China, and be much better controlled outside of China. Unfortunately my wife is also stuck in Chongqing; Taiwan is essentially closing up its borders and we do…

My partner is currently in Taiwan. Can you share with me, where do you get reliable local news about the virus? Can be in Mandarin.

If you want official numbers it is now built into WeChat.

Go to WeChat Pay -> Health

The numbers are updated each day.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#242

Post by coldtea »

torgian wrote: post #144

My wife is mainland Chinese, and she has been saying that it a worse than what the government is saying. Also, since Li Wenliang died, well, frankly a lot of people are pissed at the CCP. Anyway, I feel like it’ll be an epidemic ( it already is, I believe ) in China, and be much better controlled outside of China. Unfortunately my wife is also stuck in Chongqing; Taiwan is essentially closing up its borders and we do…

>My wife is mainland Chinese, and she has been saying that it a worse than what the government is saying.

Which could just be the common conspiracy theory suspicions of parts of a population...

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#243

Post by ComodoHacker »

hef19898 wrote: post #240
ComodoHacker wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The mortality rate of 2% As a reminder, don't mix this rate with case fatality (or lethality) rate, which is counted on ended cases and is about 30%. This is your real chance when you're infected.

You really should read up again on that...

>case fatality rate: the number of deaths due to a specific disease as compared to the total number of cases of the disease. [0]

You can't take a case into account until you know its outcome. What am I missing?

0. https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/lethality+r...

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#244

Post by hef19898 »

ComodoHacker wrote: post #243
hef19898 wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really should read up again on that...

>case fatality rate: the number of deaths due to a specific disease as compared to the total number of cases of the disease. [0] You can't take a case into account until you know its outcome. What am I missing? 0. https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/lethality+r...

Official mortality rate is 2.1%. Deaths per confirmed infections. And yes, the WHO isn't that stupid to count cases that aren't decided yet. And yes, they are smart enough to take the appr. three weeks it usually takes until death into account.

No idea where you got that 30% from. Even in Wuhan, with its medical infrastructure close to the breaking point, we are talking about 4.9%.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#245

Post by Communitivity »

Laforet wrote: post #220
oefrha wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to a medical professional in my family who have close friends that have worked on the front line of epidemics, the high grade protective gears are like space suits, it takes close to an hour just to put them on and make sure they’re airtight, and taking them off takes even longer due to the significant risk of inflection (compared to when you put on a clean set) if you don’t take extreme care. Then there’s…

You are probably thinking of hazmat suits and it's not the most common type. Medical staff in Wuhan wear disposable protective overalls that are made of a thin layer of polypropylene (as intended so it would be light and cheap) and easily torn. Thus it's necessary to avoid taking them on and off between shifts because the act will probably rip it beyond repair. Some also took the additional step of strapping plastic…

They may be thinking of Bio-Safety Level (BSL) 4 Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). The CDC has suggested nCOV-2019 be investigated/treated with BSL 2 PPE. Links to the CDC guidelines and a doc outlines what constitutes BSL 2 are below.

* https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/lab-biosafety-...

* https://www.wm.edu/offices/sponsoredprograms/_documents/ppe_...

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#246

Post by hef19898 »

hef19898 wrote: post #244
ComodoHacker wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>case fatality rate: the number of deaths due to a specific disease as compared to the total number of cases of the disease. [0] You can't take a case into account until you know its outcome. What am I missing? 0. https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/lethality+r...

Official mortality rate is 2.1%. Deaths per confirmed infections. And yes, the WHO isn't that stupid to count cases that aren't decided yet. And yes, they are smart enough to take the appr. three weeks it usually takes until death into account. No idea where you got that 30% from. Even in Wuhan, with its medical infrastructure close to the breaking point, we are talking about 4.9%.

Just checked the last Situation Report from Feb. 7th from the WHO:

31,211 confirmed cases and 637 deaths in China. Makes a rate of roughly 2.04%. And I trust the WHO to get the calculation behind that right.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#247

Post by hef19898 »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #239
baxtr wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t you think there is a difference when no one is aware (back in December) and the way it is now?

Not too much, no. But we will know who is right in just a few weeks, so we’ll see.

Fast quarantine for example is one big difference. People with symptoms that could be Corona related going to hospitals is another big difference. Tests being developed. Hospitals being on alert. But believe whatever you want.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#248

Post by ryanwaggoner »

hef19898 wrote: post #216
Spare_account wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably they could be under-reporting the number of infections and the number of deaths, to keep the mortality rate consistent. I don't know why they would do that, but they are accused of doing this kind of thing frequently. If they sat on the news of the virus for an extended period they might have known the mortality rate they needed to align with long before the rest us.

If Chinese authorities are under reporting both, death and infections, inorder to drive "true" mortality up that would mean there more unreported people dying in relation to people being infected compared to the reported numbers. And yet every real expert out there is telling us the opposite is more likely because only the more severe cases tend to be reported. And mortality is expected to be lower if the unreported…

Every expert is not saying that the infection rate is much higher than the official numbers, but the death rate is reliable. They’re both unreliable and we just don’t know the true numbers. China’s reaction is not comforting though.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#249

Post by bullen »

If you look at the graphs here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And know that in 3 weeks everyone either dies or has recovered.

Doesn't that mean we will see a large amount of total deaths in a couple of weeks?

Those graphs are both exponential!

Remember that cases are subjectively selected, while deaths have a fixed statistical variance!

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#250

Post by bredren »

hkt wrote: post #168
eindiran wrote: post #43

> Doctors there were running "naked" as they knew they were set to be infected given the shortage of protective gear. They still worked there nonetheless. That is so rough, especially since some healthcare workers are now among the dead: specifically, I saw that Li Wenliang had died. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinese-doctor-w...

I'm reminded of the people who went into Chernobyl to begin containment. Hard to call them anything but heroes.

In the 2019 television series, they were miners conscripted into service on the disaster. And in the show they actually did work literally naked due to the heat.
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