101–110 of 316 posts
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> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.
Many under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
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Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?
You're right, and this could very well be a propaganda piece, but it somehow comes off as genuine. There are activists in China who recognize the severity, understand the grasp of the party, and still desperately attempt to reach out - including the selfless doctor who died yesterday, and a number of activists who have already been disappeared. No doubt the number of such people has been increasing exponentially and…
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There's a something like 20% hospitalisation rate. That seems kind of scary compared to the flu which is "you have a sniffle, get over it."
"the flu", i.e. influenza, is definitely not "you have a sniffle, get over it" more like feeling like you've been hit by a truck for 2 weeks while you shiver in bed with a fever, coughing your lungs out, unable to function
What can we do right now to increase our bio immunity for this?
That's the principle mechanism of public health to epidemiological outbreaks: reduce the likelyhood and rate of transmission between people.
This is why the appropriate response is to curtail transport, especially long-distance modes which occur faster than onset of symptoms (e.g., air flights from known epidemic zones). It's why locking down cities within epidemic zones, restricting mobility between cities where outbreaks have occurred, wearing barrier protection to prevent both contracting and transmitting particles, disinfecting infected surfaces, and limiting social and business contact, are all primary responses.
Get a flu shot, if you haven't already. Not because it'll keep you from getting 2019-nCoV, but because you don't want to be confusing having the flu with having nCoV, and you don't want to have to be out getting treated for flu whilst nCoV's circulating. And having all others treating you like Typhoid Mary to boot.
Wash your hands.
Carry (and use) alcohol-based hand sanitiser. (Antibiotic is useless against virus.)
Wash the doorknobs, light switches, taps, knobs/pulls, and bannisters in your home, regularly. Keep visitors and guests to a minimum. Don't touch your hands to your face, eyes, nose, or ears.
Look for indications of breakout in your area on news or online. Realise that if there's a breakout, the disease has likely already been circulating for several weeks, e.g., the risk is high. Currently, outside of China, there are very few places at risk -- Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Japan, Thailand, and South Korea are the major additional locations.
Transmission seems to require several hours of fairly close contact.
Stocking up on cleaning supplies generally makes more sense than masks, which are of limited use or efficacy.
Some somewhat nonobvious practices (salt-infused masks, apparently, others may exist) seem to reduce transmission or viral capability profoundly.
For now, the containment trends are strongly positive, outbreaks outside China are quite limited, and it looks as if measures are effective. It'll be another few weeks before this is certain, things could still go quite badly, but signs are encouraging.
Most notably, the new cases and deaths trends are dropping well below their initial exponential trajectory:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_ou...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_ou...
Comments I made yesterday on Diaspora regarding this, and pointer to a now 10-day-old post based on the then exponential growth, in which I'd suggested we should see containment working on new cases by early February, and deaths by mid-February (we're actually trending well ahead of that):
https://joindiaspora.com/posts/17158824
Disclaimers: lay views, not an expert.
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That's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and ECMO, etc.) Mortality rate within Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under pandemic conditions. If the rest of China looks like Hubei in a few weeks, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout all of China. If other countries start to look like China in a mont…
> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.
I'm not sure what to tell you. Unless you think that this virus somehow only targets people living in China, it's only a matter of time before it takes hold in other countries. This is not one that you can simply quarantine and isolate away like SARS. This one seems to be communicable at the earliest onset of symptoms, or even perhaps before.
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We had a SARS outbreak in Taiwan since we trusted the statement from Chinese government back then. This time we assume coronavirus can do person to person transmission and blocked travel to WuHan back when CCP and WHO were downplaying its ability to spread. That's how we have less cases than Japan, Korea and Hong Kong now. Recently Taiwanese people in WuHan asked for evacuation. CCP denied our request at first, then…
> We requested to fly children, elderly and people with medical condition first, instead they flew wealthy businessmen with good connection to CCP and their China spouses. Wow, that’s disgusting.
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Many under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
No hospital has been overrun by patients outside of China yet despite high awareness of symptoms.
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I submitted this already, but this is worth reading also: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...
He's the expert, and I'm not. But I can do math. Influenza this year in the US: 19M infected and 10K fatalities. If you posit 1% mortality rate for coronavirus like he argues, that's 20 times more deadly. And it's twice that in China, it's unclear if that's a statistical anomaly or a structural feature of some difference in how things are tested/reported in China. So I'm not going to just shrug and say it's no big de…
What are your thoughts on this?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.
Many under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
