Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU • Hacker News Board

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#91

Post by skmurphy » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:46 AM UTC

cycrutchfield wrote: post #83

baxtr wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can only do the math right if you get counter and denominator right. The number of unreported cases is probably very high. I found this in the article posted above: ”So the 20,000 cases in China is probably only the severe cases; the folks that actually went to the hospital and got tested. The Chinese healthcare system is very overwhelmed with all the tests going through. So my thinking is this is actually not as…

Saying that it's an order of magnitude less deadly than SARS doesn't exactly allay any concerns when it's still at least an order of magnitude more deadly than the flu, and probably twice as communicable. "A severe form of the cold" is the understatement of the century.

I agree, It's viral pneumonia for those over 60 and heavy smokers. China has 240M people who are 60 or older. Assuming a 2% mortality in that population and the fact that many of the younger infected have mild symptoms, 1/4 to 1/2 of these folks may be infected in the next 3-6 months. That's 1-2M fatalities.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#92

Post by ImaCake » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:46 AM UTC

8bitsrule wrote: post #55

plg wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the flu", i.e. influenza, is definitely not "you have a sniffle, get over it" more like feeling like you've been hit by a truck for 2 weeks while you shiver in bed with a fever, coughing your lungs out, unable to function

And you may not 'feel better again' for a month, or two, or more.

My anecdata from a few influenza events is that it is truly awful. A week of slowly worsening fever. I got close to admitting myself to hospital before my fever broke and I recovered. Symptoms dissapear very quickly once it's over, but it took me months to recover my fitness.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#93

Post by ImaCake » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:48 AM UTC

srik wrote: post #89

What can we do right now to increase our bio immunity for this?

Nothing much. If the infection breaks out near you, avoid crowds, wash your hands frequently, and don't touch your face (especially nose) with said hands. SARS and it's ilk kill the old and sick, not the young, so avoid your grandparents or elderly parents.

If there's little or no infection near you, I wouldn't do anything yet.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#94

Post by ekianjo » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:49 AM UTC

cycrutchfield wrote: post #85

WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to remember that when a virus is new and spreads quickly, resources and medical care around the area are strained. Look at the mortality rate outside of Wuhan to see what the real mortality under a controlled environment look like.

That's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and ECMO, etc.) Mortality rate within Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under pandemic conditions. If the rest of China looks like Hubei in a few weeks, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout all of China. If other countries start to look like China in a mont…

> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world.

Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#95

Post by anaanymouse » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:53 AM UTC

allovernow wrote: post #66

DanielleMolloy wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?

You're right, and this could very well be a propaganda piece, but it somehow comes off as genuine. There are activists in China who recognize the severity, understand the grasp of the party, and still desperately attempt to reach out - including the selfless doctor who died yesterday, and a number of activists who have already been disappeared. No doubt the number of such people has been increasing exponentially and…

Thank you for this - can't find Gallaher's report, would you mind linking it again?

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#96

Post by peteretep » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:55 AM UTC

eindiran wrote: post #43

> Doctors there were running "naked" as they knew they were set to be infected given the shortage of protective gear. They still worked there nonetheless. That is so rough, especially since some healthcare workers are now among the dead: specifically, I saw that Li Wenliang had died. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinese-doctor-w...

Last thing the CCP needs is martyrs against the state

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#97

Post by skmurphy » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:58 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #94

cycrutchfield wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and ECMO, etc.) Mortality rate within Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under pandemic conditions. If the rest of China looks like Hubei in a few weeks, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout all of China. If other countries start to look like China in a mont…

> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.

Many under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#98

Post by redis_mlc » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 3:59 AM UTC

malandrew wrote: post #8

loceng wrote: post #4

"The most regretful thing to me was a pregnant woman from Huanggang. She was in very serious condition. Nearly 200,000 yuan (S$39,505) was spent after more than a week in the ICU. She was from the countryside, and the money for hospitalisation was borrowed from her relatives and friends. Her condition was improving after the use of Ecmo, and she was likely to survive. But her husband decided to give up. He cried for…

The medical system there is far more similar to the US system than the European system. It fails some of its citizens the same way the US system fails some of its citizens. Yet it is also similar to the US system is that it is fostering more medical innovation than socialized systems as well. Basically it is similar in both good and bad ways. China has made more gains in medical R&D than pretty much any other country…

Correct.

Generally in China you buy your way into a hospital bed if it's busy.

And "Big Sickness" (the Chinese term for cancer and heart surgery) ruins family finances, similar to the USA.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#99

Post by allovernow » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 4:05 AM UTC

anaanymouse wrote: post #95

allovernow wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, and this could very well be a propaganda piece, but it somehow comes off as genuine. There are activists in China who recognize the severity, understand the grasp of the party, and still desperately attempt to reach out - including the selfless doctor who died yesterday, and a number of activists who have already been disappeared. No doubt the number of such people has been increasing exponentially and…

Thank you for this - can't find Gallaher's report, would you mind linking it again?

http://virological.org/t/analysis-of-wuhan-coronavirus-deja-...

I don't know who this guy is but he and his son are awesome.

Re: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

#100

Post by tim333 » Sat, Feb 08, 2020, 4:06 AM UTC

pnw_hazor wrote: post #15

codeulike wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for that, it was interesting and quite anti-panic.

Now it seems healthcare workers are readily getting infected. "A study has found that 40 health-care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic." https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-chin...

From the main article:

>...South Central Hospital. The deputy director went there to help in their ICU. He found that two-thirds of the medical staff in the ICU were already infected.

I was thinking maybe they should get low risk health workers (young fit) to deliberately get the virus under holiday conditions and then return to run the hospitals when immune.