111–120 of 316 posts
What can we do right now to increase our bio immunity for this?
I think we are dealing with black swan event. It's new disease, higly contagious and with 200 more deathly rate than flu. Since we don't know much about that disease and how much that virus can mutate being extra cautious is best strategy.
Source? I've not seen any published number higher than 5%.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The medical system there is far more similar to the US system than the European system. It fails some of its citizens the same way the US system fails some of its citizens. Yet it is also similar to the US system is that it is fostering more medical innovation than socialized systems as well. Basically it is similar in both good and bad ways. China has made more gains in medical R&D than pretty much any other country…
Correct. Generally in China you buy your way into a hospital bed if it's busy. And "Big Sickness" (the Chinese term for cancer and heart surgery) ruins family finances, similar to the USA.
Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…
> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some tr…
Also, do you have any opinion on this:
Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…
We had a SARS outbreak in Taiwan since we trusted the statement from Chinese government back then. This time we assume coronavirus can do person to person transmission and blocked travel to WuHan back when CCP and WHO were downplaying its ability to spread. That's how we have less cases than Japan, Korea and Hong Kong now. Recently Taiwanese people in WuHan asked for evacuation. CCP denied our request at first, then…
If they screw up other measures, like hygiene for the sick and food delivery to 50 million people they can multiply the death rate. Modern theory of Spanish flu[1] is that the flu itself was not that deadly. Combination of influenza with bacteria in the lungs caused most of the deaths. It was the World War I with lots of wounded in the same place, bad hygiene conditions, many with scarred lungs from poison gas and ci…
Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the p…
We had a SARS outbreak in Taiwan since we trusted the statement from Chinese government back then. This time we assume coronavirus can do person to person transmission and blocked travel to WuHan back when CCP and WHO were downplaying its ability to spread. That's how we have less cases than Japan, Korea and Hong Kong now. Recently Taiwanese people in WuHan asked for evacuation. CCP denied our request at first, then…
There could be other reasons for this, no? I mean, specifically in Japan's case, a huge cluster of that is from cruise ships. That seems more like a [bad] luck thing rather than the result of proactive action.
Also, I think we should make the distinction between "cases" and "confirmed cases". I'm in Singapore and one of the reasons given why Singapore has so many confirmed cases (3rd most) is that the Government is relentless about tracking infections.
Maybe that's just a positive spin. Either way, I think there's a lot of reasons to take these early numbers with a grain of salt.
----
Caixin: Based on your clinical experience, what's the disease progression of the new coronavirus?
Peng: Lately I've been spending the daytime seeing patients in the ICU, then doing some research in the evenings. I just wrote a thesis. I drew on data from 138 cases that South Central Hospital had from Jan 7 to Jan 28 and attempted to summarise some patterns of the novel coronavirus.
A lot of viruses will die off on their own after a certain amount of time. We call these self-limited diseases.
I've observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don't. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.
But some patients who enter the second week will suddenly get worse. At this stage, people should go to the hospital. The elderly with underlying conditions may develop complications; some may need machine-assisted respiration. When the body's other organs start to fail, that's when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.
The third week determines whether critical illness leads to death. Some in critical condition who receive treatment can raise their level of lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell, and see an improvement in their immune systems, and have been brought back, so to speak. But those whose lymphocyte numbers continue to decline, those whose immune systems are destroyed in the end, experience multiple organ failure and die.
For most, the illness is over in two weeks, whereas for those for whom the illness becomes severe, if they can survive three weeks, they're good. Those that can't will die in three weeks.
-----
Whole thing is worth reading.
This whole thing has brought out my conspiratorial side...I don’t know what to believe anymore but I feel like we’re in a tip of the iceberg situation here. Hope I’m wrong.
article linked by someone above is quite a good antidote to the worries
