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The Coming Boeing Bailout?

mattstoller.substack.com

131–140 of 189 posts

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#131
post #66
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that pretty much what happened with GM? The stocks and bonds were all wiped out. And then the new GM was owned by the government / union until they did an IPO a few years later?

Yes, eventually. First the auto industry asked and revived $25 billion in TARP money and $5 billion in loans for auto industry suppliers. That was not enough and they asked another $25 billion and this time the government refused. Only after that GM and Chrysler went bankrupt.

Freakonomics did a wonderful episode on the subject of government bailouts/investment, Is the Government More Entrepreneurial Than You Think? [1]. One relevant quote:

> MAZZUCATO: What the U.S. government actually did with Tesla was the opposite of what they should do. They said, thinking they were quite wise, “If you fail to pay back the loan, we get three million shares in your company.” And you have to ask yourself why all these Goldman Sachs guys who were in Obama’s government didn’t actually come through when they were needed, because they should have said the opposite: “If you do pay back the loan, we get three million shares.” And the price per share, when the loan was taken out in 2009, was $9 a share. When it was paid back in 2013, it was $90 a share. That difference multiplied by three million would have more than paid back the Solyndra loss and the next round. Then the question becomes: how do you share not only the risks but also the rewards? So we don’t get what we get with the banks, which is that when things go bad the state has to bail them out, and when things go well, the banks take the profits.

[1] http://freakonomics.com/podcast/mariana-mazzucato/

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crazy thing is that Boeing hasn't designed a new clean-sheet small jet since 1967, when the 737 came out. Prior to that they were iterating on a pretty rapid cadence, with the 707, 717, 720, and 727, and then they just got stuck in an absolute rut and have been increasingly paying the consequences as the 737 no longer stacks up favorably against the much newer clean-sheet designs put out by their competitors. To…

It's a strange one. When the 737 was built, the aircraft industry thought that the supersonic transport (SST) was going to be the big thing. In particular, being so much faster, it could get more flights in per day and have a much lower cost per seat mile. That didn't happen, and the 747 turned out to be the future instead. Through the 1970s and 1980s there was intense competition for widebody planes, but the 737 slo…

> Here is the business jet version of that

Just to clarify to casual readers: The G650 is _not_ a business jet version of the Boeing 787.

Parent poster meant that the G650 was, like the initial 787, designed to cruise at speeds above Mach 0.9. Note that the production 787 cruises at Mach 0.85 like most other large jet airliners.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#133
Bit strange how the article seems to blame McDonnell Douglas for all Boeing's current troubles.

First, it uhm no longer exists and second the merger was in 1997 - more than two decades ago!

The current mess is flying under the Boeing flag one way or another.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's not forget where the two max's crashed. Ethiopia and Indonesia. Some bean counters already decided the value of a life in these, "shit hole countries." I wouldn't be surprised if they literally took the cost of living index in the US and compared it to these countries and proudly patted themselves on this back when they came up with this amazing cost savings... I hope the individuals, airlines and the countries…

The planes had a huge mix of people of all nationalities aboard them though, including some from every wealthy western nation. Air travel tends to be a lot more diverse than whatever country the flight is occurring in, especially in non-wealthy countries (where the average foreigner can better afford flight than the average citizen). My guess is they expect well more than this amount to be paid out in lawsuit winning…

Good point, if I remember correct it was almost all europians on that particular flight. With your new point it really has me wondering why they valued a life at $240k, or really why they would even bother with this fund at all?

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#135
post #133

Bit strange how the article seems to blame McDonnell Douglas for all Boeing's current troubles. First, it uhm no longer exists and second the merger was in 1997 - more than two decades ago! The current mess is flying under the Boeing flag one way or another.

They are blaming a culture that according to the author was inherited from McDonnell Douglas.

The iPhone is certainly an Apple product just like the 737MAX is a Boeing product, but would you attribute the success of the iPhone to NeXT/Jobs culture or Apple/Amelio culture?

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#136
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been mentioned in the article that MCAS was never outsourced. Where did the article say that? To me it explicitly claims it was outsourced: the McDonnell Douglas influenced Boeing new one tried to patch the problem with software. And it was bad software, written by to engineers paid $9/dollar an hour. And I am not blaming the software engineers for building it to the specification. In contrary, I clearly state…

Nowhere in the [original reporting][1] does it say that MCAS was outsourced. This article (The Coming Boeing Bailout?) wrongly asserts that MCAS was outsourced. There's no corroboration for that. Mind you, I'm not on Boeing's side. I'm just clarifying what's been reported so far. [1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-28/boeing-s-...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-28/boeing-s-...

>In offices across from Seattle’s Boeing Field, recent college graduates employed by the Indian software developer HCL Technologies Ltd. occupied several rows of desks, said Mark Rabin, a former Boeing software engineer who worked in a flight-test group that supported the Max.

>The coders from HCL were typically designing to specifications set by Boeing. Still, “it was controversial because it was far less efficient than Boeing engineers just writing the code,” Rabin said. Frequently, he recalled, “it took many rounds going back and forth because the code was not done correctly.”

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#137
post #90

This article repeats the claim that the MCAS software was faulty, but is there any evidence of coding-level errors? There is the systems engineering failure of not comparing the two available AofA sensors to detect faults, if not going for at least triple-redundancy, but the root cause there is not a coding error. It has been suggested that high AofA readings should have been rejected unconditionally, but that approa…

> This article repeats the claim that the MCAS software was faulty, but is there any evidence of coding-level errors? No, there isn't. The Verge (and IIRC other sources) have reported that the crashes were due to failures in the angle of attack (AoA) sensors. No program in the world is going to give you correct output with garbage input. Verge link: https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/2/18518176/boeing-737-max-cr...

No sensor failure should cause the plan to go into swan dive to destruction mode.

The software that carries your tweets has to deal with exceptional situations including hardware failure so to must software that runs life critical hardware. Seems to me that if the proper response to faulty sensors was to disable MCAS perhaps it should have just done that for the pilot.

Even without a second AoA sensors perhaps something could have been derived from the fact that the pilot was furiously pulling up while the aircraft was losing altitude?

Defense in depth is always a good thing.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#138
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not trying to defend Boeing and I also think the problem for 737max is a serious blow to boeing, but I suspect the only chance for massive cancellations of its orders is when ffa designates it as a new airworthiness type. Even that might depend on contract details. What also make the cancellations less likely, in my opinion is that its competitors, the A320neo has a backlog of more than 10 years at the current pr…

Airbus can always just increase production if the demand was high enough

This!

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#139

Not a viewpoint I agree with. Boeing has plenty of business. 737 MAX sales may suffer, but that will not kill the Boeing Company. Aviation is a deadly serious business. Design is done by people, which are highly flawed cogs in the system. The system was broken. (meaning design, verification, and certification process). The system can be fixed. Incompetence at some levels; perhaps. Not murder and not criminal behavior…

Designing a plane with 1 AOA sensor that can fail and cause the plane go into try really hard to crash into the ground mode is criminal negligence.

The real universe has enough failure modes without engineering our own pitfalls.

The engineers who signed off on this and their managers should be extradited to the countries involved to stand trial for criminal negligence.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#140
post #101

Is there any airline manufacturer since 1950 that was not born or kept alive on the back of governmental subsidies/grants/bailouts or lucrative military contracts to fund R&D?

You know the answer to that question. Comac, UAC, Airbus, Embraer and others all came from government efforts. Bombardier took Canadair off the government's hands to get started, so they might be the nearest there is to 'private free market enterprise'. Boeing live off the the defence contracts but they are arguably totally free market. We know this isn't true and pretend. The article talks about how the McDonnell Do…

Thank you for your wonderful reply.

I'm of the feeling that electric planes may open up the market , though mindful it may be like the early days of plane making. Lots of small private companies that eventually merge over time into a handful of behemoths with the same governmental factors playing out.

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