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The Coming Boeing Bailout?

mattstoller.substack.com

121–130 of 189 posts

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#121
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure? Does Ryanair actually use the integrated stairs, or do they use staircars? I thought they stopped making 737s with the integrated stairs some time ago? Is Ryanair using old planes?

I'm not 100% sure if my memory is playing tricks on me, but I believe Ryanair indeed uses the integrated stairs often. There do also seem to be plenty of images of Ryanair planes with the integrated stairs down or in use.

I was on a Ryanair flight earlier this year and the integrated stairs were used.

I believe the fleet is mostly 737-800s, and having the option to avoid staircars and skybdridges saves money.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#122
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been mentioned in the article that MCAS was never outsourced. Also it’s unfair to blame the software engineers who are building it to specification. It would be fantastical to assume that Boeing management( the same one ploughing through engineering with bean counting) would give a rats crap about a low level engineer raising a concern.

It has been mentioned in the article that MCAS was never outsourced. Where did the article say that? To me it explicitly claims it was outsourced: the McDonnell Douglas influenced Boeing new one tried to patch the problem with software. And it was bad software, written by to engineers paid $9/dollar an hour. And I am not blaming the software engineers for building it to the specification. In contrary, I clearly state…

Nowhere in the [original reporting][1] does it say that MCAS was outsourced.

This article (The Coming Boeing Bailout?) wrongly asserts that MCAS was outsourced. There's no corroboration for that.

Mind you, I'm not on Boeing's side. I'm just clarifying what's been reported so far.

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-28/boeing-s-...

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#123

The problem is that corruption has already reached the core. The military-industry complex, the revolving door scheme, pretty much everything. I mean the system still works because the United States, so far, is still the most powerful country. But for how long? The elites are not doing their job, so the people should pick up from here. But the thing is, the people are not able to do this either.

> because the United States, so far, is still the most powerful country. ... But for how long?

What would be the competition to the US other than China (which is insular, nationalist to the extreme and protectionist to the extreme)?

If China is the only superpower competitor, then the structure you just described will continue to work perpetually as there is no alternative.

There is a common fantasy that the US is suddenly going to collapse, because 'all empires end.' It's nothing more than a fantasy because US wealth and power is derived from its domestic economic output, not from conquering foreigners or invading countries like Afghanistan (despite what the collapse-fantasy types would like to believe; the US already had the largest economy by 1890, long before the dollar became the global reserve standard). The US economy is built on its enormous scientific and R&D output, which is unrivaled in world history. That positioning of strength spans aerospace, spacetech, medtech, biotech, pharma, agriculture, software, mobile, semiconductors, intellectual property broadly, media & cultural export, finance & banking (Visa is worth $400b, Deutsche Bank is worth $16b; US banks are eating Europe right now, because of how weak their financial position is in contrast). The US is the world's #2 manufacturer by a large margin and is likely to regain ground on China from here forward (they will lose manufacturing share globally). The US has a position in energy that is unrivaled overall, including its oil and natural gas potential. The US has by far the strongest and most profitable airlines, which are now looking outward and beginning to buy into the rest of the world's weaker airlines.

The US still has 19 of the world's top 20 universities, and 40x of the top 50. That's one of its critical foundations supporting its economy in the post WW2 era. The rest of the world has nothing even remotely like it.

The US position is still expanding, not contracting. It has added an economy the size of Germany + France since the great recession. Simultaneously, China is gobbling up position / influence / economy / power in the other half of the world the US doesn't control.

There is no peer to the US in the 'West' and there is not going to be. Most of Europe has seen zero economic growth since 2006-2007, their stagnation is going to get worse rather than better. They will fall further behind (and their politics will get much worse as that happens). Japan (third largest economy) is going to see little to no economic growth for the next 20 years at least. So where's the competitor going to come from? It's not. The US will continue to grow more powerful, wealthier, and its economy will continue to out-grow Europe and its military capabilities will continue to expand far beyond what Europe is capable of.

China will be the sole competitor to the US in the 21st century and the two will split the world in half.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#124
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been mentioned in the article that MCAS was never outsourced. Where did the article say that? To me it explicitly claims it was outsourced: the McDonnell Douglas influenced Boeing new one tried to patch the problem with software. And it was bad software, written by to engineers paid $9/dollar an hour. And I am not blaming the software engineers for building it to the specification. In contrary, I clearly state…

Nowhere in the [original reporting][1] does it say that MCAS was outsourced. This article (The Coming Boeing Bailout?) wrongly asserts that MCAS was outsourced. There's no corroboration for that. Mind you, I'm not on Boeing's side. I'm just clarifying what's been reported so far. [1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-28/boeing-s-...

I had understood the part of the article, which I quoted as that MCAS was outsourced. If it wasn't then the article is to blame and my point is moot.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#125
post #120
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the problem with having pure software engineers implementing such a software. They need to have some aerospace engineering knowledge too. Or at least work directly in one team with aerospace engineers. I am working as a "software engineer" in the semiconductor industry. By education, I am a physicist. I am in my job for more than 10 years now, and beyond my university education, I have quite a grasp of electr…

That is true. But please keep in mind that the whole MCAS fiasco was precipitated by a dubious cost-cutting initiative related to an engine placed more in front than would be aerodynamically stable. The game was lost in the first quarter. The whole point is that civilian aircraft, unlike fighter jets, have to be aerodynamically stable without the need for such software, whether developed by holistic engineers, or com…

The 737 MAX is aerodynamically stable. MCAS isn't even active while any flap is extended. MCAS should be active only at angle of attacks, which wouldn't be reached at extreme angle of attacks. The sole purpose of MCAS is to emulate the exact reactions of the older 737 machines in this domain, as this was required for maintaining the same type rating. That is also the reason, the pilots are supposed to deactivate MCAS via the runaway stabilizer checklist. This software isn't required for stable operations of the airplane - Lion air had a MCAS malfunction the day before the crash, but disengaging the electric stabilizers solved the problem and they were able to finish their flight without incidents.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh? Which country would be able to successfully invade the US if we didn’t have cutting edge aircraft?

Air supremacy is of paramount importance in modern warfare. Look at how thoroughly we were able to dominate the conventional land battles in Iraq and Afghanistan because of it. You can't have an effective national defense (or offense) these days without a good air force. And we're fortunate that ours is home-grown, not bought. Just go ask Iran what it's like having a non-home-grown air force; they have a bunch of F-1…

I note that you didn’t answer the question. It may (or may not) be reasonable to want a Big Swinging Dick military that goes around devastating third world nations, but it isn’t defense.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crazy thing is that Boeing hasn't designed a new clean-sheet small jet since 1967, when the 737 came out. Prior to that they were iterating on a pretty rapid cadence, with the 707, 717, 720, and 727, and then they just got stuck in an absolute rut and have been increasingly paying the consequences as the 737 no longer stacks up favorably against the much newer clean-sheet designs put out by their competitors. To…

It’s worth noting that even though the 717 was first released in the late 90’s it isn’t a case of Boeing innovating since it’s just a rebadged MD-95 which was developed by McDonnell-Douglas

It's also worth noting that there were two 717s, the first was indeed part of the 720 & 707 family. (it was the 'commercial' designation of the C-135 when sold to france for use as a tanker)

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#128
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The MCAS is a good example, why certain software must not be outsourced. Implementing the software correctly to spec isn't enough, you need enough understanding of the application to question the spec itself.

Software engineers are not aerospace engineers. I doubt the software people would have understood the aerodynamic effects of the MCAS system by looking at the requirements.

This is the larger problem. There are plenty of aero engineers that are brilliant programmers yet the reverse is a much smaller number. Add to that, aeros that can code are far more expensive than software engineers, it becomes easy to see why they outsource to software people.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#129
post #101

Is there any airline manufacturer since 1950 that was not born or kept alive on the back of governmental subsidies/grants/bailouts or lucrative military contracts to fund R&D?

You know the answer to that question. Comac, UAC, Airbus, Embraer and others all came from government efforts. Bombardier took Canadair off the government's hands to get started, so they might be the nearest there is to 'private free market enterprise'. Boeing live off the the defence contracts but they are arguably totally free market. We know this isn't true and pretend.

The article talks about how the McDonnell Douglas and Boeing merger was evil. But there is no discussion on why Airbus is okay when Airbus is a merger of various European defence interests with different cultural values.

Why is one merger bad and the other not put under the same scrutiny?

Also, why isn't there a supply chain where anyone can enter the market? Pratt and Whitney, Rolls Royce and General Electric make engines, so if you can make your own plane you just bolt on ready made engines. But that is as far as the system integration aspect seems to go.

Most auto manufacturers do make their own engines so they are not 'systems integrators'. However, if you want to make cars you could go to Bosch for the bits they make, Johnson Controls for the bits they make, Pirelli for a few tyres and before you knew it there would be everything needed for final assembly. You could even get a contract manufacturer to make the whole thing.

With computers anyone can build a PC. But there might only be 2-3 supplier choices for a given component. Some PCs are built for a specialist niche, e.g. point of sales systems, or medical. No heavy handed governments made the PC manufacturers merge into giant mega corporations, they did that themselves opening doors for new entrants in the process.

Planes could be more about systems integration, so a given airliner might be able to get a local place to build planes for its requirements from off the shelf parts. The governments could have rationalised the industry to work this way. Imagine if, as per the engine example there are 2-3 suppliers for wings, fuselages, avionics packages, cabin interiors, fuel interiors and so on.

This idea can be easily nitpicked, however, aeons ago the U.S. government legislated so that airliners could not build their own planes.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> its low ground clearance is caused by the need to be able to fit a folding staircase inside the aircraft itself. Which incidentally is the major reason why it is the Ryanair main aircraft.

Are you sure? Does Ryanair actually use the integrated stairs, or do they use staircars? I thought they stopped making 737s with the integrated stairs some time ago? Is Ryanair using old planes?

ryanair's website says their whole fleet is 737-800 and they definitely have airstairs (for eg: https://sjc1.discourse-cdn.com/infiniteflight/uploads/defaul...)
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