The Coming Boeing Bailout? • Hacker News Board

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#71

Post by CydeWeys » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

bradleyjg wrote: post #46

willyt wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m guessing that it’s considered a strategically important business to US defence? The US government would presumably be unwilling to allow all those teams of specialist engineers and technicians to be disbanded and all the facilities and assets to be sold off as would happen when a normal business fails.

Maybe we shouldn’t outsource tasks that are strategically important to the nation’s defense (assuming for the sake of argument that they are.)

No assumptions necessary; being able to manufacture cutting-edge aircraft is clearly strategically important to a country's national defense.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#72

Post by windexh8er » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:29 PM UTC

euroclydon wrote: post #11

Terrible title. Either I skimmed the end of the article or there was nothing about a bailout in there.

I think you missed the point. The implication is that it is the direction we're headed. Which, personally, I find egregious given there's a criminal investigation into the company. I'd love to see the executive ranks do legitimate prison time for their cause of unneeded death.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#73

Post by iSnow » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:32 PM UTC

KeAShizuku wrote: post #2

I don't think things are going that badly for Boeing. There are only two aircraft producers and Airbus is at full capacity. The airline industry is still growing. You would actually have to try really hard to fuck this up. It would be amusing if the US government gives them money though. European alleged subsidy of Airbus is the latest accusation of Trump and one of the causes of the US-EU trade war.

It would be kind of amusing if that was the beginning of the end of the duopoly and the rise of Comac as a third player.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#74

Post by seren » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:32 PM UTC

What is more worrying for Boeing is that a SW fix might not be that easy to implement.

According to that article [0], the fix is running too slowly on the Flight Control Computers, that are based on a 80286 architecture.

I am not sure how reliable this info is, and that should not be surprising given the cost of verification or certification of an aircraft, but I am still surprised that a 2019 plane, has still some HW and SW from the 1980ies.

Edit : There are actually more details in Wikipedia [1]

>In June 2019, "in a special Boeing simulator that is designed for engineering reviews"[75], FAA pilots performed a stress testing scenario – an abnormal condition identified through FMEA after the MCAS update was implemented[76] – for evaluating the effect of a fault in a microprocessor: as expected from the scenario, the horizontal stabilizer pointed the nose downward. Although the test pilot ultimately recovered control, the system was slow to respond to the proper runaway stabilizer checklist steps, due to an 80286[77] microprocessor being overwhelmed with data. The FAA characterized the slow responsiveness as "catastrophic", whereas Boeing initially classified it as "major". The solution appears to consist in rerouting data across multiple chips. Boeing stated that the issue can be fixed in software.[78] The software change will not be ready for evaluation until at least September 2019.[79] Boeing also said that it agreed with additional requirements that the FAA required it to fulfill, and added that it was working toward resolving the safety risk. It will not offer the MAX for certification until all requirements have been satisfied.[80]

[0] https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/boeings-software-fix-f...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Au...

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#75

Post by xmichael999 » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:36 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #68

xmichael999 wrote: post #57

Let's not forget yesterday Boeing announce a human life is worth $289,017 https://www.slashgear.com/boeing-reveals-100m-737-max-victim...

That's quite pathetic, given that the actuarial value of a life is actually around $5-10M (in the US anyway). They're going to end up paying out a lot more money in the lawsuits though, so we don't know the final total number yet.

Let's not forget where the two max's crashed. Ethiopia and Indonesia. Some bean counters already decided the value of a life in these, "shit hole countries." I wouldn't be surprised if they literally took the cost of living index in the US and compared it to these countries and proudly patted themselves on this back when they came up with this amazing cost savings... I hope the individuals, airlines and the countries themselves find a way to sue Boeing into the ground.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#76

Post by 0815test » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:36 PM UTC

seren wrote: post #74

What is more worrying for Boeing is that a SW fix might not be that easy to implement. According to that article [0], the fix is running too slowly on the Flight Control Computers, that are based on a 80286 architecture. I am not sure how reliable this info is, and that should not be surprising given the cost of verification or certification of an aircraft, but I am still surprised that a 2019 plane, has still some H…

> According to that article, the fix is running too slowly on the Flight Control Computers, that are based on a 80286 architecture.

See, that's the nice thing. All they have to do is push the Turbo button, it will work like a charm.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#77

Post by bradleyjg » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:36 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #71

bradleyjg wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe we shouldn’t outsource tasks that are strategically important to the nation’s defense (assuming for the sake of argument that they are.)

No assumptions necessary; being able to manufacture cutting-edge aircraft is clearly strategically important to a country's national defense.

Oh? Which country would be able to successfully invade the US if we didn’t have cutting edge aircraft?

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#78

Post by DocTomoe » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:51 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #65

PaulHoule wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the 2nd generation E-Jets and the A220 beat the pants of the 737 with the caveat that they are smaller planes that carry fewer passengers. They also are smaller planes that have better comfort than the 737 in most respects; it is like the Japanese cars of the 1970s which were big on the inside and small on the outside compared to American cars of the time. You have to fly it to believe it. I could see these eati…

The crazy thing is that Boeing hasn't designed a new clean-sheet small jet since 1967, when the 737 came out. Prior to that they were iterating on a pretty rapid cadence, with the 707, 717, 720, and 727, and then they just got stuck in an absolute rut and have been increasingly paying the consequences as the 737 no longer stacks up favorably against the much newer clean-sheet designs put out by their competitors. To…

> its low ground clearance is caused by the need to be able to fit a folding staircase inside the aircraft itself.

Which incidentally is the major reason why it is the Ryanair main aircraft.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#79

Post by wbl » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 2:52 PM UTC

WillPostForFood wrote: post #47

bhouston wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bombardier draw the short straw as it was smaller and wasn't able to combat the duopoly of Boeing/Airbus. It was able to compete though on the merit of its products before the duties came into play. The duties were designed to kill its momentum and it did -- look at the loss of orders in 2017 compared to 2016. But once the issue is resolved, the orders in 2018 are huge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_…

It was able to compete though on the merit of its products Merit, and a billion dollar subsidy from the government. There is clearly government interference on both sides. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bombardier-quebec-deal-1.36...

Capital investment on terms available to all local production is not a subsidy. It's industrial policy.

Re: The Coming Boeing Bailout?

#80

Post by canada_dry » Thu, Jul 04, 2019, 3:02 PM UTC

> military procurement and engineering created a corrupt design process, with unnecessary complexity, poor safety standards

Assuming this permeates a considerable amount of the US military spending I'm curious how much it deflates the true value?

The US spends more than double China on military, and although it is likely a portion of their (China) budget goes towards graft and corruption my suspicion is that actual design, development and manufacturing is much more efficient (e.g. lack of environmental controls and labor unions) and would support the argument that the US is on course to losing its position of top military force (to China) within the next two decades.