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China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

reuters.com

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Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#51

Post by vsnf »

myroon5 wrote: post #48
chriselles wrote: post #40

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

What is the H in BATH?

I've never seen them referred to as BATH before, but it likely corresponds to Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#52

Post by yegle »

myroon5 wrote: post #48
chriselles wrote: post #40

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

What is the H in BATH?

Huawei

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#53

Post by steve19 »

JabavuAdams wrote: post #46
expressrunning wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan Can Win a War With China “One of the central hurdles facing the offensive is surprise. The PLA simply will not have it. The invasion will happen in April or October. Because of the challenges posed by the strait’s weather, a transport fleet can only make it across the strait in one of these two four-week windows.“ “There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could possibly land at. Each of…

Assumptions like this have a way of getting countries invaded. They're true until they're not true.

The only assumption that matters is the assumption the USA will defend the country and not look away to prevent a world war. The moment that assumption does not hold true...

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#54

Post by est31 »

dflock wrote: post #47
expressrunning wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not true. Economic sanctions is the ultimate weapon these days. Look at Ukraine and Russia. Russia is now in its 5th year of sanction from EU and US and others. As a result, a withering economy and massive population outflow for Russia. Also look at the effects of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Both are collapsing. Imagine the effects of sanction on an economy as big as China.

If you owe the bank $10k, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $10b, you own the bank. Sanctions against China would be fairly painful for the rest of the world, too.

Sanctions are always painful to both sides. But it's usually one coutry vs most of the rest of the world. Each country only cuts off ties with that one country, so the relative impact of that action is small. The sanctioned country has its ties cut off by most if not all trading partners, culminating negative effects and adding some synergies on top, yielding a big impact for that country.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#55

Post by albntomat0 »

shshhdhs wrote: post #37
stcredzero wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What usually happens nowadays, is that technology greatly increases the amount of force which can be cashed out for. The start of the Nuclear age was literally applying a "new" (heretofore not yet applied to war) physics. Applying space forces actively to war could well be applying a new part of the universe to war. (Airplanes and submarines were also this.)

Ok. How does that change the paradigm? It’s still a use of force ...

In potentially the same way that nuclear weapons did. No one can "win" a nuclear exchange, unlike those who thought many of the previous non-nuclear large conflicts would be over quickly (both World Wars and the US Civil War come to mind). Nuclear weapons are still use of force, but provide deterrence in a way conventional forces can not.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#56

Post by expressrunning »

dflock wrote: post #47
expressrunning wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not true. Economic sanctions is the ultimate weapon these days. Look at Ukraine and Russia. Russia is now in its 5th year of sanction from EU and US and others. As a result, a withering economy and massive population outflow for Russia. Also look at the effects of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Both are collapsing. Imagine the effects of sanction on an economy as big as China.

If you owe the bank $10k, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $10b, you own the bank. Sanctions against China would be fairly painful for the rest of the world, too.

Sanctions against Russia didn't have much impacts on European/US consumers.

Tariffs against China didn't have much impacts on European/US consumers.

You get the idea.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#57

Post by expressrunning »

chriselles wrote: post #40

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

"China’s Rear Adm. Luo Yuan [said] the key for Chinese domination in those hotly contested waters could lie in the sinking of two U.S. aircraft carriers. 'What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,' the admiral said, before adding that such an attack on two of the U.S. Navy’s steel behemoths would claim upwards of 10,000 lives."

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/01/04/well-see...

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#58

Post by chriselles »

expressrunning wrote: post #57
chriselles wrote: post #40

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

"China’s Rear Adm. Luo Yuan [said] the key for Chinese domination in those hotly contested waters could lie in the sinking of two U.S. aircraft carriers. 'What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,' the admiral said, before adding that such an attack on two of the U.S. Navy’s steel behemoths would claim upwards of 10,000 lives." https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/01/04/well-see...

I do think this is hyperbole.

Sinking a US aircraft carrier would be a direct attack on the sovereignty of the United States.

It would e like sinking Rhode Island(slightly bigger).

Retribution would be overwhelming.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#59

Post by chriselles »

est31 wrote: post #49
chriselles wrote: post #40

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

I doubt they'll stop at their home waters. What they consider home waters will just move more and more towards the US west coast. Right now the conflict is closer to them than it is to the USA but things may change rapidly.

Agreed.

Over time, China will be looking to guarantee its SLOC(Se Linea of Communication(Control) for all of it’s global trade.

China is very vulnerable to economic harm from sea trade disruption.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#60

Post by kuzehanka »

chriselles wrote: post #58
expressrunning wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"China’s Rear Adm. Luo Yuan [said] the key for Chinese domination in those hotly contested waters could lie in the sinking of two U.S. aircraft carriers. 'What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,' the admiral said, before adding that such an attack on two of the U.S. Navy’s steel behemoths would claim upwards of 10,000 lives." https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/01/04/well-see...

I do think this is hyperbole. Sinking a US aircraft carrier would be a direct attack on the sovereignty of the United States. It would e like sinking Rhode Island(slightly bigger). Retribution would be overwhelming.

Retribution with what? If the carriers are taken out the US has no way to project any kind of meaningful force in that region.

Any scenario (unlikely as it may be) that involves china successfully destroying 2 US carriers would also involve their confidence in being able to destroy the rest in their coastal region.

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