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China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

reuters.com

41–50 of 102 posts

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just in a practical global stability sense it would probably be best if China re assumed its historical role as regional hegemon. I actually think it would be better for the us to unburden ourselves of the need to provide security for Taiwan, japan and Korea, as long as we continue to have trade agreements. I realize that their system of government isn’t great and violates human rights on a massive scale, but in term…

I realize that their system of government isn’t great and violates human rights on a massive scale, but in terms of foreign policy and the actual usage of their military for the past several decades, they’ve been a lot more reasonable and done far less damage than the us has. Basically, because the US geopolitical strategy has kept them in check. Give them access to the world's oceans and the global stage to play in,…

If they behave exactly like the United States that would be scary. Between Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria the US attempts to flatten about 1-1.5 countries per decade in the Middle East.

If China used that strategy in South America, I'm not sure the US military would smile and quietly appreciate the parallels. They'd be angry.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#42
The other problems China has is resources and cash. As the article points out, if you include maintenance and upgrades, naval ships tend to be 3x the cost of building them. That's not cheap.

And resource wise, it is reliant on outside suppliers. Which also cost. Unlike America, China's fiances aren't infinite (America is due to oil).

I have no doubt China can easily afford invading Taiwan. I do have doubts about Japan though. Japan is mobilizing right now as well.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#43

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

> I don't see any reason to panic.

These guys got pretty close:

https://www.usip.org/publications/2018/11/providing-common-d...

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#44
post #42

The other problems China has is resources and cash. As the article points out, if you include maintenance and upgrades, naval ships tend to be 3x the cost of building them. That's not cheap. And resource wise, it is reliant on outside suppliers. Which also cost. Unlike America, China's fiances aren't infinite (America is due to oil). I have no doubt China can easily afford invading Taiwan. I do have doubts about Japa…

They are busy at replacing those outside suppliers with their own technology. Their entire economic policy is revolving around the goal of becoming self-reliant.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#45
post #16
post #2

Great. I doubt this is the beginning of WW3 but considering what's happening with Vietnam and Myanmar I'd bet that we'll have a new hegemony that Taiwan falls under if nothing changes in the next 5 years or so. Does anyone have any books on the economics of war/war of economics and such? I'm wondering where else this could go.

What's happening with Vietnam and Myanmar?

Vietnam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sdk3wYxDzk https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2179378/v...

Myanmar http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Forty-per-cent-of-Myanmar%E2%... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Myanmar_relation... The civil war there is complicated as heck, Myanmar is doing everything it can to get away from China but China is the only one who seems to be willing to do some partnerships because it also helps them as well. India, Bangladesh, Thailand not so much, they're happy taking the people desperate to get away from Myanmar's conflicts for cheap labor and trafficking.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the region than China does. This might well change if China takes back Taiwan. If that happens, China could engineer a situation where it's better for the local powers to cozy up to China, than to take the side of the distant US. Even though the US, as a distant hegemon, is the better option, the US might not have the power to keep China at bay an…

Taiwan Can Win a War With China “One of the central hurdles facing the offensive is surprise. The PLA simply will not have it. The invasion will happen in April or October. Because of the challenges posed by the strait’s weather, a transport fleet can only make it across the strait in one of these two four-week windows.“ “There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could possibly land at. Each of…

Assumptions like this have a way of getting countries invaded. They're true until they're not true.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#47
post #17

I guess it's probably not very realistic but to me the only way to get to real security that you can count on to last is to change the whole paradigm. I mean the basic premise is that the bottom line for control is deadly force. Maybe there really is no alternative but I think it's worth mentioning that as long is that is the operating mode, there is no real security for human life. You can certainly have extended pe…

That’s not true. Economic sanctions is the ultimate weapon these days. Look at Ukraine and Russia. Russia is now in its 5th year of sanction from EU and US and others. As a result, a withering economy and massive population outflow for Russia. Also look at the effects of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Both are collapsing. Imagine the effects of sanction on an economy as big as China.

If you owe the bank $10k, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $10b, you own the bank.

Sanctions against China would be fairly painful for the rest of the world, too.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#48

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

What is the H in BATH?

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#49

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

I doubt they'll stop at their home waters. What they consider home waters will just move more and more towards the US west coast. Right now the conflict is closer to them than it is to the USA but things may change rapidly.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#50
post #48

I don't see any reason to panic. In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant. But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority. China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's. But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BA…

What is the H in BATH?

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