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China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

reuters.com

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Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#31

Post by iamshs »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #23
cududa wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given their current tensions with Pakistan, that seems like a horrific idea

Yeah I have no idea how anyone thinks that would be a good thing. You only have to watch the hyper-nationalism and blowing up satellites in LEO in the lead up to this election, as the country. Of all the places on Earth where nuclear weapons would be ever used again it's a top contender.

True to all of that. The point still remains though, US will need allies in the quest to challenge China and India is absolutely the one. The prime vantage point in Indian Ocean and an economy that can sustain the Navy. India will never to friends with China, due to border dispute and Chinese ambition to keep India confined to South Asia. Pakistan is a threat that will always remain due to their sponsorship of terrorism, but the nuclear angle is overhyped. US understands that and a lot is happening in this specific area of countering China. ASW exercises with all major powers. India has their P8I networked with US centres, and Bell ASW helis have been ordered recently.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#32

Post by olivermarks »

stcredzero wrote: post #20
i_am_proteus wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bear in mind, though, that the US Navy operates in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean and occasionally Arctic. The US Navy often operates far from US naval port facilities. The Chinese fleet is concentrated almost entirely in the Western Pacific, near its naval ports.

The US faces many of the logistic and economic challenges the British faced when they ruled the world's oceans.

Agree, further complicated by NATO and other alliances which arguably make the US forces a mercenary tool for the enforcement of the global ultra wealthy's agenda over defense of the USA as a nation state, alongside Halliburton, Erik Prince's mercenary armies etc etc

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#33

Post by vt240 »

jvanderbot wrote: post #7

Anyone interested in understanding the balance of power in China/Pacific: I enjoyed "Destined for War", "World Order" (big section for China), and "On China". I'd welcome more suggestions.

I started reading "India and China at Sea" [1]. Seems to be really well put together.

[1] : https://global.oup.com/academic/product/india-and-china-at-s...

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#34

Post by solidasparagus »

stcredzero wrote: post #18
staunch wrote: post #8

What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's no benign explanation. China has long had enough conventional power to defend itself and more than enough nuclear weapons to hold up its side of MAD. It really just looks a lot like the king of China is preparing to start a war. It seems like in the best case he is preparing to take Taiwan and in the worst case he's planning to take all of As…

What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's no benign explanation. China wants access to the world's oceans which isn't dictated by a foreign power. China wants ocean access parity with the United States, along with the opportunity to become the global dominant superpower in the 21st century. It seems like in the best case he is preparing to take Taiwan and in the worst case he's plann…

It's hard to be a superpower without allies and I think invading Taiwan would turn China into a country surrounded by enemies. The region is already worried about Chinese expansion.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#35

Post by expressrunning »

stcredzero wrote: post #19
vondur wrote: post #9

The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the region than China does. In theory, we just have to make more advanced weapon technology available to some our allies in the region. I'd support helping India modernize their military with equipment, training and joint exercises.

The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the region than China does. This might well change if China takes back Taiwan. If that happens, China could engineer a situation where it's better for the local powers to cozy up to China, than to take the side of the distant US. Even though the US, as a distant hegemon, is the better option, the US might not have the power to keep China at bay an…

Taiwan Can Win a War With China

“One of the central hurdles facing the offensive is surprise. The PLA simply will not have it. The invasion will happen in April or October. Because of the challenges posed by the strait’s weather, a transport fleet can only make it across the strait in one of these two four-week windows.“

“There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could possibly land at. Each of these has already been prepared for a potential conflict.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#36

Post by blotter_paper »

kodz4 wrote: post #22
ilaksh wrote: post #17

I guess it's probably not very realistic but to me the only way to get to real security that you can count on to last is to change the whole paradigm. I mean the basic premise is that the bottom line for control is deadly force. Maybe there really is no alternative but I think it's worth mentioning that as long is that is the operating mode, there is no real security for human life. You can certainly have extended pe…

Well Europe has figured out how to redirect all that energy into football so other paradigms are possible. Before that discovery they spent most of history killing each other every 3 months or so.

Europe is merely exchanging smaller governments for a bigger one; they have their peace (for now) but are slowly trading relatively local sovereignty for it. Yes, you can have a walled garden within which there is peace. Enjoy your walls, young Siddhartha.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#37

Post by shshhdhs »

stcredzero wrote: post #26
darawk wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't change that paradigm. Everything ultimately cashes out in force, unless you want to invent a new universe with new physics or something.

What usually happens nowadays, is that technology greatly increases the amount of force which can be cashed out for. The start of the Nuclear age was literally applying a "new" (heretofore not yet applied to war) physics. Applying space forces actively to war could well be applying a new part of the universe to war. (Airplanes and submarines were also this.)

Ok. How does that change the paradigm? It’s still a use of force ...

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#38

Post by jonathankoren »

solidasparagus wrote: post #34
stcredzero wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's no benign explanation. China wants access to the world's oceans which isn't dictated by a foreign power. China wants ocean access parity with the United States, along with the opportunity to become the global dominant superpower in the 21st century. It seems like in the best case he is preparing to take Taiwan and in the worst case he's plann…

It's hard to be a superpower without allies and I think invading Taiwan would turn China into a country surrounded by enemies. The region is already worried about Chinese expansion.

Weak enemies.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#39

Post by expressrunning »

ilaksh wrote: post #17

I guess it's probably not very realistic but to me the only way to get to real security that you can count on to last is to change the whole paradigm. I mean the basic premise is that the bottom line for control is deadly force. Maybe there really is no alternative but I think it's worth mentioning that as long is that is the operating mode, there is no real security for human life. You can certainly have extended pe…

That’s not true. Economic sanctions is the ultimate weapon these days. Look at Ukraine and Russia. Russia is now in its 5th year of sanction from EU and US and others. As a result, a withering economy and massive population outflow for Russia.

Also look at the effects of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Both are collapsing.

Imagine the effects of sanction on an economy as big as China.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#40

Post by chriselles »

I don't see any reason to panic.

In raw numbers the US Navy is technologically and numerically dominant.

But China will increasingly be able to surge "mass" in terms of both technology and numbers to dominate its near shore and achieve theatre level superiority.

China is building out it's military in a way that is akin to the US Reagan led 1980's.

But what concerns me the most is not PLAN versus US Navy, but China/BATH versus US/FAANG+.

We are not likely to see a single navy dominate the world's oceans ever again.

But what about a single country dominating the world's geodigital platforms?

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