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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#321
post #255
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman) and can make decisions independently when buying a tesla. honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision?

> if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? Because I'm not buying a car for fun, I'm buying one because my old beater is giving up the ghost. > a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. A car is not an investment. It's an expense. > i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman…

but this used car experience is not competing against a new tesla sales model..

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#322
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman) and can make decisions independently when buying a tesla. honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision?

> honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision? If your current car is not usable you don't have a few months. This does not just apply to people who drive beater cars -- your nice, well-maintained car could get totaled in an accident tomorrow and you'll need to get a new car. Obviously it is not good to be car shopping in those circumstances but sometimes you don't have a ch…

what? im sorry, if you can afford a tesla you aren't just buying a leaf because you "need one now". a month rental is within the same cost parameters.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#323
As a Tesla Model S owner I'm not at all surprised that the sales of the S and X are down. They are pushing the Model 3 hard, so hard that they dropped the reasonably priced S and X models from their lineup.

There is a huge price gap between the 3 and the S now and the differences between the cars is so slight that it doesn't make sense to buy an S today. Even worse the S and X haven't had their interior update yet so they look old compared to the 3.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#324
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jaguar is part of Tata. If Tata gets good at manufacturing electric cars in large quantities it would be a big deal.

The point was more that Tesla has already scaled beyond the level where "these companies know how to build cars" is reasonable spin. Tesla's building plenty of cars, making money doing so, scaling rapidly, and can only be expected to be doing better still by the time those competitors arrive in the market. That's not to say that they won't be highly competetive cars, they might (I for one certainly hope they are). Bu…

Tesla produced 77,000 vehicles in Q1, worldwide. Let's assume they hit their target of 400,000 vehicles in 2019. They would still need to triple production after that point to reach the top 20 of auto manufacturers in 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#325
post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not sure that's a fair statement. The other manufacturers (most, but especially in the luxury segments) build higher quality cars with much lower rates of error. Tesla enthusiasts (much like early adopters of things) are forgiving and overlook a lot of imperfections (fit and finish on teslas vary greatly -see Youtube reviews). This has been the primary reason holding me back for purchasing one. Tesla's existing…

The statement was about industrial scaling. Arguments based on fit and finish and market preference are sort of a different thing.

Failing to maintain product quality is an indicator of inability to scale.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For other people who like speed and performance, Tesla's are the cheapest way to get there. I generally like Teslas but unfortunately they were not meant to be driven at high speeds for what other people consider as a normal period of time, as can be seen for example in this YT video [1] of a Tesla's battery over-heating after driving at 190-200 kph on the German autobahn. Their 0-to-100 kph times are excellent, th…

The vast majority of Germans don't drive on the Autobahn at such insane speeds, and this certainly isn't an option anywhere else anyway (legally). Such a niche use case really does not matter all that greatly in the scheme of things. I can think of dozens of factors more important to me than "not being able to drive at 200 kph for extended periods of time".

> The vast majority of Germans don't drive on the Autobahn at such insane speeds

It's not an insane speed, a new VW Golf can handle 170-180 kph pretty damn well, hell, my 12-year old 1.4l hatchback can do 130-140 kph for hours at a time quite as well, too.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#327
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your a…

>It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your ability should port to "things like it." Except that Elon Musk has: Completely disrupted online payments Completely disrupted space travel Completely disrupted automobiles . It wouldn't matter if SpaceX and Tesla disappeared at this moment. The history books would still be written about how Tesla and SpaceX were the things that instigated the change.

Musk was one of many founders of PayPal. SpaceX is actually run by Gwynne Shotwell.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, you're almost half way too understanding why dealerships are quite a good arrangement for auto manufacturers.

If dealerships were a good arrangement for manufacturers, dealerships wouldn't have to turn to legislation to ensure their own continued existence. I mean, how much do you think it bugs the shit out of the German auto manufacturers that they spend an unfathomable amount of time and energy making world class cars, only to have their customers have to deal with a car salesman in order to actually buy one.

In the UK, and I think the EU generally, anyone including the manufacturer can sell to the public.

When Daewoo entered the UK market they made a big deal about not having franchise dealerships or commissioned salespeople. After a few years, the Daewoo owned showrooms were replaced with traditional dealerships.

Companies outside of traditional franchises haven’t cropped up selling brand new cars. New car sales happen through dealerships. Online sales, through specialists like jamjar.com, never took off.

None of this says franchised dealerships are perfect nor that they’re the same between the UK and US. However, in a place without restrictions on who sells new cars there has been no significant change in the model.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#329
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>[or you can see this as] “there’s always something going wrong.” Which is literally the truth in any business, in any industry: there is always a major problem, and a plethora of smaller ones to boot. Whether it's the competitors gaining up, the market undergoing a fundamental shift, the economy slowing down or the costs of materials and labor going up, there's always flux. Just as well there is always some waste th…

This seems like a view so charitable as to nearly strain credulity. Firstly, many of Tesla's problems are self-inflicted. How much time and capital was wasted on the alien dreadnought? How much damage has been caused by the constant turnover in management, or the whipsaw changes in price structure and product offerings, or the likely ill-fated decision to double down on computer vision rather than use LIDAR? One mist…

>Firstly, many of Tesla's problems are self-inflicted.

Fair enough. There's always the alternative angle of, “Recently, I was asked if I was going to fire an employee who made a mistake that cost the company $600,000. “No”, I replied. “I just spent $600,000 training him – why would I want somebody to hire his experience?” [0]

>Their competition actually does know how to build cars to spec

That's the problem: the competitors are trying to "build a car, except with electric drivetrain". This gave us Nissan Leafs and BMW i3s. There's nothing "sexy" (appealing) about those cars. Contrast them with the 2008 Tesla Roadster, and every subsequent model: due to the awe factor, people queue to buy them, in spite of the glaring manufacturing deficiencies. You essentially contrasted potential vis-a-vis actual queues of people with bundles of cash in hand. When was the last time you saw a month-long queue at your local dealership?

Those manufacturers desperately need to un-learn how to build cars, to be able to build their own take on Tesla. Also, at the same time, how to ditch the dealership model[1] that's enshrined both via tight web of interdependences and also via law in multiple states.

>deceptive PR stunts

From cheated emission tests through crashworthiness rating that's always 4 or 5 stars, to "all new and improved" which is still 8+ seconds of 0 to 60, to meaningless MPG ratings, to the lacking security of the netowked cars, and to the over-hyped, non-delivered self-driving, and to the pervasive need to negotiate down car payments presented on misleading sheets, the car industry is built on deceptive PR stunts.

--

[0] https://www.peoplehr.com/blog/2015/06/26/what-would-you-do-i...

[1] won't be profitable as-is due to much less oil changes, brake pad jobs and all that.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably going to turn out that the guys who've been building cars for a century can figure out battery technology faster than the battery guys figuring out how to scale auto manufacturing

All the German car manufacturers have in terms of engineerig talent and cultural is mostly mechanical, and brilliantly so. But, the electronics suck. Some of the most talented chemical, physical materials and electrical engineers work for Musk’s companies. You can just tell that Tesla’s were not designed with teams in silos. I don’t think car makers are currently capable of that.

> You can just tell that Tesla’s were not designed with teams in silos. I don’t think car makers are currently capable of that.

Toyota was, at one point. I don't know if they are anymore.

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