Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#131

Post by mhermher » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 3:59 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #119

refurb wrote: post #64

Interesting tweet shows lots of Tesla's sitting in inventory after being rejected by customers or other problems. https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1113799586567426049

Even worse, I was driving around the other day and saw entire parking lots full of inventory at this weird thing called a dealership, maybe GM and Ford are going under since they have all this inventory sitting there?

Hey, you're almost half way too understanding why dealerships are quite a good arrangement for auto manufacturers.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#132

Post by mikeash » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:00 PM UTC

mhermher wrote: post #129

mikeash wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like that entire account is dedicated to attacking Tesla. Can we believe it?

You don't believe those cars are? I don't get it. What's to believe or not?

I don’t know if I should believe the analysis. I don’t know if the video being presented is representative or being selectively chosen to tell a story.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#133

Post by dwighttk » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:03 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #119

refurb wrote: post #64

Interesting tweet shows lots of Tesla's sitting in inventory after being rejected by customers or other problems. https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1113799586567426049

Even worse, I was driving around the other day and saw entire parking lots full of inventory at this weird thing called a dealership, maybe GM and Ford are going under since they have all this inventory sitting there?

I don't think GM or Ford are claiming they are selling the cars faster than they can make them...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#134

Post by yumraj » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:05 PM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #116

yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total. Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps an…

If we follow your analogy, Apple provides both hardware and software value. In the case of Tesla, IMHO, the value is mostly hardware as in the core technology, not, IMHO, in the car/controls/screen/ that they put around.

Again, as a thought experiment: Would customers not like a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... with Tesla battery/drivetrain/superchargers but in a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... car shell(for lack of a better word). I think I would love that, especially since (disclaimer: I do not own a Tesla), the Model S and 3 that I've sat in, seem very spartan from a luxury vehicle standpoint.

Moreover, to my other point: this will free Tesla to innovate like crazy on battery, charger, motor and drivetrain technology and perhaps attain a monopolistic lead , while in the car business I the competition is beginning to creep up. From a traditional car manufacturer's standpoint, this may allow them to stop spending on battery/drivetrain/superchargers/... technology and focus on making the car shell.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#135

Post by tntn » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:06 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #119

refurb wrote: post #64

Interesting tweet shows lots of Tesla's sitting in inventory after being rejected by customers or other problems. https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1113799586567426049

Even worse, I was driving around the other day and saw entire parking lots full of inventory at this weird thing called a dealership, maybe GM and Ford are going under since they have all this inventory sitting there?

Most cars at dealerships don't have "dead" written on the windshield. I'm not sure what that means, but it doesn't sound that great.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#136

Post by yumraj » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:07 PM UTC

thebeefytaco wrote: post #105

yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

Didn't Tesla already open source all their patents?

There are patents and then there are trade secrets.

I would guess that Tesla's trade secrets are equally or a lot more valuable, and perhaps pertain to manufacturing processes, than their patents.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#137

Post by paganel » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:09 PM UTC

Xixi wrote: post #56

mft_ wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LOL... do you live in Europe? The model 3 is (to within a couple of cm) the same size and class as the Audi A4 and BMW 3-series. And I can assure you that they are very very common cars here. Likewise, the X is similar to (say) the Audi Q7, the BMW X5, and the Porsche Cayenne, and again, those are pretty common.

The most common size in France (where I'm originally from) is the B-segment: Renault Clio, Citroën C3, etc. So 4.1~4.2 meters in length and 1.7~1.8 meters in width. Model 3 is much longer: 4.7 meter in length and quite a bit larger at 1.9~2 meter in width. Don't get me wrong, BMW 3-series or Audi A4 are not rare in France, but it's not the mass market. So I don't have the beginning of a clue as to why you are laughin…

Just wanted to confirm what you are saying, that is that the standard-ish car size in Europe is represented by the models you mentioned: the Clio, the Citroen C3, I'll add the VW Polo, Skoda Fabia or Seat Ibiza, cars like Audi A4 or BMW Series 3 are seen as large-ish.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#138

Post by rchaud » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:10 PM UTC

benj111 wrote: post #39

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

Honda is well known by non car/tech people. My grandparents would buy a Honda because it has a reputation that Tesla doesn't have at this point. After a few years of people seeing them around, and them appearing in reliability surveys etc, that may change. Although with their dealership/internet only sales plan up in the air at the moment, that still may not make a difference, because I still can't see my grandparent…

Another major benefit of Honda and Toyota is that I can use any service shop I want. They usually always have the necessary parts, and I can shop around to get the best price. With a BMW, Audi or a pricier high-end brand, the service costs are a lot higher. With Tesla, I don't even know if you can get them serviced outside an official Tesla center. That's a no-go for me.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#139

Post by dwighttk » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:11 PM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #47

delfinom wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a big part of it. Tesla marketed their new lowend "$35K" Model 3 option but even that's them covering up the real price is $45k up front. Depending on where you live, you may get $5k back in tax credits the next year and then they throw on a $5k gas savings estimate bullshit which is ridiculous. It isn't until you click the see details button in their order system that you see the true price. That's $45k some…

No. Please get your facts straight! The $35k Tesla is $35k before any rebates or savings are taken into account. The $35k Tesla has a price after estimated savings of $24,450 in Massachusetts. $24,450 $6,250 of that savings is in the form of a $3,750 tax credit and a $2,500 check. So even if you factor in zero fuel cost savings the purchase price after rebates is $28,750. Stunningly inexpensive for an EV. This is low…

what's the rest of the estimated savings?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#140

Post by paganel » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 4:13 PM UTC

goshx wrote: post #125

justtopost wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would not buy electric if well versed in automotive tech. Notice few if any mechanics drive ecars.

You mean, you would not buy electric if, as a mechanic, most of your knowledge cannot be applied to an electric car. For other people who like speed and performance, Tesla's are the cheapest way to get there.

> For other people who like speed and performance, Tesla's are the cheapest way to get there.

I generally like Teslas but unfortunately they were not meant to be driven at high speeds for what other people consider as a normal period of time, as can be seen for example in this YT video [1] of a Tesla's battery over-heating after driving at 190-200 kph on the German autobahn. Their 0-to-100 kph times are excellent, though.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff0F5f9bmwc