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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#191

Post by SEJeff »

stcredzero wrote: post #180
rifung wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You’re being sarcastic, right? What is the signal you’re trying to send by admitting to choosing one of the most unreliable car brands on the market? Your statement is pretty closed minded. What if they just like the car enough they're willing to put up with the unreliability? That's like suggesting people who buy new cars are all idiots because the depreciation is much worse. Different people are allowed to have d…

Nope. We're all supposed to have the priorities and tastes the news tells us to.

>> The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - George Orwell, 1984

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#192

Post by waitingForTesla »

_ea1k wrote: post #16
3adawi wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is there any evidence they still have a backlog?? Seems like the only backlog left is countries they just began delivering to or haven't started deliveries there yet..no one knows how big that backlog is

No, there is no evidence of a backlog, outside of certain trims. The model 3 SR still has a backlog, by virtue of not having been made yet.

In Ontario Canada there are real wait times that are over a month for long range and AWD options for Model 3, even though the website falsely proclaims delivery within two weeks. I would define a wait time over a month (and counting) a backlog.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#193

Post by dragontamer »

dmix wrote: post #181
dragontamer wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Production is up, ergo returns are up. Production is down actually from Q4 2018. http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla... > Production in Q4 grew to 86,555 vehicles http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla... > In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles

Production is up year over year, no? We don't know what timeframe the tweet author is talking about. Did he mean there weren't many Tesla's there last quarter or a long time ago?

> Production is up year over year, no?

I mean, that's expected for a growth company. What's unexpected for a "growth" company is a sudden halt in growth.

Why would production drop by roughly 10% and deliveries drop by 30% in one quarter? I think most people were expecting a drop of some kind due to the loss of the $7500 tax credit, but 30% drop is far larger of a drop than almost anyone ever expected.

Note that Tesla also dropped the price of all M3 by $2000. So Tesla also has lower-margins in Q1 2019 than Q4 2018. Lower-margins AND lower-volume is a pretty bad sign.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#194

Post by mrdoops »

gordon_freeman wrote: post #170

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

Long term I'd like to see what sort of an effect using their own Semi's for delivery would bring. Self driving or not having a fully consolidated supply chain you can tune and rollout for your own needs is a lot of leverage. Logistics is hard, but also a known problem that Tesla should have plenty of tools to deal with.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#195

Post by RcouF1uZ4gsC »

SEJeff wrote: post #179
dragonwriter wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time. Waymo has full self-driving in limited public commercial use; there is no way that they can be charscterized as “taking their time” compared to people marketing less than full autonomy now with promises of full autonomy at some unspecified time in the fut…

So the Navigate on Autopilot that now will change lanes on its own (without driver input) isn't a step towards full autonomy? There are currently zero other companies that have anything as close in normal vehicles, zero. (Waymo is too niche and only really works in perfect weather like in AZ, so I'm counting them out.)

1 step forward on changing lanes automatically, 2 steps backwards on driving into concrete dividers automatically and killing the driver.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#196

Post by adt2bt »

mikeash wrote: post #182
gordon_freeman wrote: post #170

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

The flip side to this is that they always seem to have some sort of short-term problem going on. One quarter it’s trouble ramping up production, then it’s quality issues, pissing off regulators, inadequate transportation, what have you. You can see this as “they are good at overcoming problems” or as “there’s always something going wrong.” I tend to see it more as the former but seeing it as the latter may be a sensi…

To some extent, that sense you have that 'they always seems to have some sort of short-term problem going on' could be driven by the unnatural level of media coverage Tesla receives. Perhaps my intuition is wrong, but I feel like other companies are also constantly tackling small problems, they just don't receive the wild eyed media coverage over those problems.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#197

Post by dexen »

mikeash wrote: post #182
gordon_freeman wrote: post #170

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

The flip side to this is that they always seem to have some sort of short-term problem going on. One quarter it’s trouble ramping up production, then it’s quality issues, pissing off regulators, inadequate transportation, what have you. You can see this as “they are good at overcoming problems” or as “there’s always something going wrong.” I tend to see it more as the former but seeing it as the latter may be a sensi…

>[or you can see this as] “there’s always something going wrong.”

Which is literally the truth in any business, in any industry: there is always a major problem, and a plethora of smaller ones to boot. Whether it's the competitors gaining up, the market undergoing a fundamental shift, the economy slowing down or the costs of materials and labor going up, there's always flux. Just as well there is always some waste that could and should be improved upon.

The key difference is that some companies burn through (squander?) capital and resources to paper over the problems - to signal "good health" - while other companies cut close to the wire and allocate the capital and resources to where they will the most effective, dealing with problems when and where they become pressing.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#198

Post by dragonwriter »

SEJeff wrote: post #179
dragonwriter wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time. Waymo has full self-driving in limited public commercial use; there is no way that they can be charscterized as “taking their time” compared to people marketing less than full autonomy now with promises of full autonomy at some unspecified time in the fut…

So the Navigate on Autopilot that now will change lanes on its own (without driver input) isn't a step towards full autonomy? There are currently zero other companies that have anything as close in normal vehicles, zero. (Waymo is too niche and only really works in perfect weather like in AZ, so I'm counting them out.)

> So the Navigate on Autopilot that now will change lanes on its own (without driver input) isn't a step towards full autonomy?

It's a step toward it, yes.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#199

Post by Domenic_S »

ineedasername wrote: post #146
yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

I don't think so. They may have a lead on battery tech etc., but I wouldn't say it's a commanding lead. Given a few other EV options that come close in range, other manufacturers seem likely to keep plugging away on their own tech rather than rely on someone else with marginal & decreasing advantages. On drive train, motors, etc., established manufacturers have decades more comparable experience they can bring to bea…

This take seems really dismissive of the technological lead Tesla has vs competitors, the difficulty of the engineering work, and seems to assume that Tesla will stay still while competitors move closer.

There are some nice teardowns comparing T's battery system vs. the BMW i3 and Bolt showing the substantial differences/advantages in tech.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#200

Post by WhompingWindows »

mikeash wrote: post #182
gordon_freeman wrote: post #170

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

The flip side to this is that they always seem to have some sort of short-term problem going on. One quarter it’s trouble ramping up production, then it’s quality issues, pissing off regulators, inadequate transportation, what have you. You can see this as “they are good at overcoming problems” or as “there’s always something going wrong.” I tend to see it more as the former but seeing it as the latter may be a sensi…

Where are you hearing about these short term problems? If it's in social media, anyone reading may want to examine your own media intake and potential biases inherent to any story about publicly traded companies. There are huge interests at stake on both sides of the bull/bear aisle for all these controversial tech companies. Tesla is not alone in receiving very high-level scrutiny, it's merely more of a lightning rod due to the sensational (and ultimately fatuous) behavior/personality of its CEO.

As a car company/hardware company, I'd also argue Tesla is simply in a much tighter, harder to succeed-in industry than the other tech companies, who get ridiculous revenue for doing unethical practices with user data for basically zero marginal cost.

Finally, keep in mind that Tesla is BEV, and there are many, many well-paid opponents of BEV in the USA and elsewhere. Tesla is purposefully disrupting the bottom lines of oil and ICE companies, that is not going to be met with fair coverage in all press outlets.

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